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2012 APF Housing Market Predictions Thread
Topic Started: 19 Dec 2011, 11:47 AM (19,437 Views)
Elastic
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Frank Castle
11 Jan 2012, 09:47 AM
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I'm not sure what someone else's prediction from 2009 has to do with my prediction for 2012 but I'll just presume that you and Frank are both senile and pass it off as a couple of old farts making no sense.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Elastic
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I should probably point out that both Strindberg and Frank are guilty of attributing any bearish comments/predictions by anybody in the past decade as being relevant to anyone who is bearish on property now.

In actual fact I used to be bullish on property so I was right then and I'm more than likely right now.





Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Frank Castle
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Business As Usual

Elastic
11 Jan 2012, 10:22 AM
I'll just presume that you and Frank are both senile and pass it off as a couple of old farts making no sense.
Quote:
 
I should probably point out that both Strindberg and Frank are guilty of attributing any bearish comments/predictions by anybody in the past decade as being relevant to anyone who is bearish on property now.

In actual fact I used to be bullish on property so I was right then and I'm more than likely right now.
Oh dear
Were you crying as you typed that out?

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Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring
The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
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Strindberg
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Elastic
11 Jan 2012, 10:32 AM
I should probably point out that both Strindberg and Frank are guilty of attributing any bearish comments/predictions by anybody in the past decade as being relevant to anyone who is bearish on property now.

In actual fact I used to be bullish on property so I was right then and I'm more than likely right now.





The relevance I was pointing out is that if you are correct now (saying no crash), all the crash predictors of the past will be shown to have been wrong.
I made the clear and relevant point, that you are predicting that prices at the end of 2012 will be substantially higher than they were in early 2009, a time when forums like this one were filled with doomsday predictions of a house price crash.

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Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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stinkbug
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I predict the following for 2012:

1) A few areas will increase in price (nominal terms)
2) A few areas will decrease in price (nominal terms)
3) Many areas will be priced within 5% of their current value at the end of the year
4) We'll continue to get mainstream media stories of disaster! catastrophe! perfect storm!
5) We'll continue to muddle through, and end up the year in a slightly better position than now.

Generally, we're in a stagnating property market, but have plenty of ability to prop ourselves up financially if other parts of the world turn to poo.

I reckon there's less than a 10% chance of genuine financial disaster (but it could happen).
Edited by stinkbug, 11 Jan 2012, 12:06 PM.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Rastus2
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Elastic
11 Jan 2012, 10:22 AM
I'm not sure what someone else's prediction from 2009 has to do with my prediction for 2012 but I'll just presume that you and Frank are both senile and pass it off as a couple of old farts making no sense.

You must remember that all they have is the past... The glory days of booms and rubbing bears faces in massive price rises across the entire country are gone.

Be gentle on them, the. Penny has droped but they only have one basket of assets to cling to.

awww is the Boom all gone :c(
Edited by Rastus2, 11 Jan 2012, 11:00 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Elastic
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Frank Castle
11 Jan 2012, 11:22 AM
Oh dear
Were you crying as you typed that out?

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Actually I was laughing pretty hard as I typed that out.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Elastic
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So Strindberg are you going to grow some balls and make your predictions for 2012.

I'll even allow you some disclaimers without ridicule.
You know, get out of jail free cards that you can later use to explain why your wildly optimistic predictions didn't come to fruition.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Strindberg
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Elastic
12 Jan 2012, 10:05 AM
So Strindberg are you going to grow some balls and make your predictions for 2012.

I'll even allow you some disclaimers without ridicule.
You know, get out of jail free cards that you can later use to explain why your wildly optimistic predictions didn't come to fruition.
I'm happy to repeat the prediction I have been persistently making on these fora since 2004. I predict there will be no house price crash nationally. I've been right every time I've made that prediction whilst most of my fellow forum members have been wrong throughout the last 8 years.

I only make predictions when I perceive something happening out of the ordinary. That happened in November 2010, when in the face of obvious dangers, Blind Glenn the Baptist insanely risked the livelihoods of thousands of innocent people by raising interest rates for a seventh successive time. Having rightly and belatedly eased monetary policy in late 2008 and early 2009, thus supporting families in a time of trouble, having sucked them in he then proceeded to immediately screw them with rate rises in a period in which the rest of the world were wrestling with economic survival. He acted vindictively as people usually do when they imagine they have been chosen to implement the laws of a vindictive god.

Subsequently and combined with my protest against the actions of the Lord's henchman I made two predictions here.

One was that house prices would fall 5%-10% nationally. That was my forecast for the fall until the evil doings of the governor were reversed, as I knew they would have to be even if he had to be overruled or sacked.

The other, related, prediction was that the next interest rate change would be down. It was.

So far, my prediction record is reasonably good. My long standing no national house price crash prediction is so far 100% correct. My 5%-10% national falls prediction is possibly a little high but not far off. My prediction on interest rates was spot on.

There have been no extraordinary happenings recently to prompt me into more predictions other than my regular one - no crash. Other than that one, predictions are not something I constantly maintain. I make 'em when events prompt me, not when other members prompt me. As for "ridicule", I care not. I'm an anonymous internet blogger.

Incidentally, where do you get the idea that I might make "wildly optimistic predictions"? Did you make it up? It seems to me that all the wildly optimistic (from the pov of the predictor) predictions come from bears hoping to jump in and seize something for nothing from the loss, suffering and pain others will get in the event of the country going to shit.
Edited by Strindberg, 12 Jan 2012, 05:35 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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BubbleBoy
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Frank Castle
11 Jan 2012, 11:22 AM
Oh dear
Were you crying as you typed that out?

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New material please?

I believe that you are genuinely funny at times - but you have done the the crying/tantrum baby/toddler thing has been done to death. So please give it a rest.
Edited by BubbleBoy, 13 Jan 2012, 12:49 AM.
My name is based on a Seinfeld character, not on a belief of a housing bubble.
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