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2012 APF Housing Market Predictions Thread
Topic Started: 19 Dec 2011, 11:47 AM (19,438 Views)
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More gain than pain tipped for year ahead

Peter Martin
December 30, 2011

INTEREST rates are headed down, the sharemarket will climb, and we'll survive whatever Europe throws at us. That's the consensus of the 20 economists polled for the BusinessDay end-of-year economic survey. Our terms of trade will slip in the year ahead, but not by enough to derail the Treasury's and Reserve Bank's pleasing forecast of economic growth close to trend.

The panel expects Chinese economic growth of 8.1 per cent next year, not too far down on the most recent annualised reading of 9.1 per cent. World economic growth should slip to 3.3 per cent, lower than the most recent International Monetary Fund forecast issued in September before renewed concerns about European debt, but above the 3 per cent benchmark it uses to define a global recession.

Interest rates will have to fall further to shield the economy from the weaker international environment, with the Reserve Bank likely to slice a further 0.45 points off its cash rate by June and 0.65 points by year's end according to the average forecast. Significantly, every one of the 20 economists expects at least one further rate cut before the middle of the year.

None of our forecasting panel are particularly concerned about inflation, with the 2 to 3.4 per cent forecast range closely matching the Reserve Bank's 2 to 3 per cent target band. The benign outlook for inflation gives the panel confidence that the central bank will be able to cut interest rates as needed should conditions sour more than expected.

Australia's gross domestic product will grow a healthy 3 per cent over the year, according to the mean forecast, close to its long-run trend but well below the 4 per cent implied by the latest Treasury and Reserve Bank forecasts. The range of predictions is wide, with the HSBC's Paul Bloxham, a former Reserve Bank economist, the most optimistic, sticking with the Reserve Bank's forecast of 4 per cent and Neville Norman, of the University of Melbourne, and Steve Keen, of the University of Western Sydney, the most pessimistic, predicting 1.6 per cent and 1.7 per cent.

There's more unanimity about the unemployment rate, with none of the panel straying too far from Treasury's forecast of a climb from the present 5.2 per cent to 5.5 per cent by June where it would stay for the rest of the year.

The Australian sharemarket will improve next year is the view of all but three of the panel. The mean forecast has the ASX 200 rebounding 10 per cent to 4494. But that won't be enough to regain the losses of the past year, or even the losses since August. The index would climb to a mere two-thirds of its peak in 2007 before the global financial crisis.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/more-gain-than-pain-tipped-for-year-ahead-20111229-1pe6c.html#ixzz1hxiHkx00
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Sydneyite
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just want to add this prediction from "themoops" to this thread: http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8282959&t=9321611

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"Recovery" is such a retarded, offensive term. Property will be down 20% by the end of this year.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Perth and Sydney prices to rise 5% in 2012: Angus Raine

By Larry Schlesinger
Wednesday, 04 January 2012

Investors and cashed-up first-home buyers are set to push up Sydney and Perth property values by up to 5% in 2012, Raine & Horne CEO Angus Raine has forecast. According to Raine, price rather than the traditional real estate mantra of “location, location, location” will drive the buying decisions of investors and owner-occupiers over the course of the year.

“In Sydney, the market between $400,000 and $650,000 will continue to show positive signs in 2012, with investors re-entering the market, replacing the expected shortfall of first-home buyers due to the end of the stamp duty concessions on existing homes,” Raine says.

Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/perth-and-sydney-prices-to-rise-5-in-2012-angus-raine/2012010352957
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georgie
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For Sydney, I see rents increasing at a faster pace than 2011. Properties prices will stagnate for the year. The interest rate cuts won't do much for value but it will help stimulate the market in terms of turnover and volume. Sydney prices will grow (but below inflation) because the mainstream are not educated enough to invest in other financial tools.

I see 4 interest rate cuts but the banks only passing on 1 or 2.

People by December will start to capitulate if any of the following occurs:

Increased cost of living forces people to sell at large discounts
America goes to war
Israel pisses of Iran or vice versa
China's property bubble becomes obvious to he mainstream
Europe implodes
Another act of nature on a developed country eg Japanese Tsunami
2012 predictions of the end of the world from the Mayans comes to fruition

Without one of these factors the only possibility of a crash is if the negative feedback loop causing the economy to head south. As property prices fall, people feel less wealthy, they stop spending, there is less money in the economy, unemployment rises and property prices fall. As property prices fall further people feel even less wealthy so they stop spending even further and as there is less money in the economy unemployment rises and property prices fall.


If you are buying in Sydney chase the yields.
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micnugget
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My best prediction is that a boom or a crash are pretty unlikely.
I will say prices flat for the year. (-5% to 5%) change, but with more downside risk than upside.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

I predict that I will continue to get 10-20% of my predictions completely wrong.

(But this one will be one of the 80-90% I get right)
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
10 Jan 2012, 09:39 PM
I predict that I will continue to get 10-20% of my predictions completely wrong.

(But this one will be one of the 80-90% I get right)


In the spirit of Chris Joye prediction Lilly livered style of predictions...

For 2012.

I predict that if the Australian economy shows weakness in 2012, the RBA may be tempted to consider adjusting the rates and consider giving mortgage holders a surprise this Melbourne Cup day

There you go... if they lower rates, I can claim, like joye, that I 'nailed it'... lol
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Elastic
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I predict that Australian property will be down about 5% for 2012.
Melbourne to be down approx 7%.
Sydney about 3% and the rest about 5%.

Unemployment to jump to 6%.
Rate cuts of about 1% in total.

I think gold and silver will be good performers again in 2012.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Strindberg
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Elastic
11 Jan 2012, 09:18 AM
I predict that Australian property will be down about 5% for 2012.
Melbourne to be down approx 7%.
Sydney about 3% and the rest about 5%.
OK, in other words you are predicting by that, by the end of 2012, prices nationally, and in Sydney and Melbourne, will be substantially UP on their levels of March 2009 when a housing crash was being widely predicted. You are saying those predictions will all be wrong.

Edit add: For clear evidence of the widespread predictions that the crash was to follow the low point of March 2009 see here:
http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8175553&t=8787265
The crash was still being predicted despite the cash rate being 3% and the FHB boost being in full swing.
Edited by Strindberg, 11 Jan 2012, 10:10 AM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Frank Castle
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Business As Usual

Strindberg
11 Jan 2012, 09:35 AM
OK, in other words you are predicting by that, by the end of 2012, prices nationally, and in Sydney and Melbourne, will be substantially UP on their levels of March 2009 when a housing crash was being widely predicted. You are saying those predictions will all be wrong.
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The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
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