No price crash according to Kochie's charts you posted here. About 12% from peak it seems.
Strindberg,
you have not changed at all..
I just Love it when someone who does not live here takes the effort to educate me on the local real estate situation with some kind of online chart... lol
Your still very loose with the truth eh Stringberg ?
Since you want to cite Kochie as the expert... ok.
FYI, those charts are about 12 months old... sales and prices have not improved... indeed, they have gone the very way Kochie predicted ...
Here is the quote from the very page you probably lifted those charts.
"Why Gold Coast Real Estate Agents are the world's supreme optomists... or loose with the truth"
1 --- The EU will blow in 2012 and at least one country will leave. Deflationary forces will continue to increase globally and more quantitative easing will happen but not enough to prevent further contraction. Globally stock markets will fall and the property bubbles will continue to deflate. The Australian property bubble will continue to lag the world and will have moderate falls of up to 10%.
2 --- Aussie unemployment to exceeds 6% as the mining boom falters. Commodity prices end the year lower.
3 --- Interest rates globally will remain low due to quantitative easing despite higher risks. Australian funding will come under pressure, the cash rate will fall 0.75% but most of the cuts will not be passed on. A rift will open between the government and the banks over policy.
4 --- Gold will reach US$2,200, Aussie bonds will rise, WTIC below US$75. The A$ will end a volatile year at 0.90.
5 --- Several notable bulls disappear from the forum and return under news names claiming that they saw the decline coming but the bottom is close and a new boom is imminent. BP will claim that despite the down turn his properties increased in value and that Q3 2012 is the new bottom.
6 --- Steve Keen's profile will rise in Australia and rightly so.
7--- Catweasel will post something that I can understand, Frank will puts his rents down, Shadow will concede a point and pigs will fly.
You got 1/4 of of point 7 correct (I conceded a point).
1 --- The EU will blow in 2012 and at least one country will leave. Deflationary forces will continue to increase globally and more quantitative easing will happen but not enough to prevent further contraction. Globally stock markets will fall and the property bubbles will continue to deflate. The Australian property bubble will continue to lag the world and will have moderate falls of up to 10%.
2 --- Aussie unemployment to exceeds 6% as the mining boom falters. Commodity prices end the year lower.
3 --- Interest rates globally will remain low due to quantitative easing despite higher risks. Australian funding will come under pressure, the cash rate will fall 0.75% but most of the cuts will not be passed on. A rift will open between the government and the banks over policy.
4 --- Gold will reach US$2,200, Aussie bonds will rise, WTIC below US$75. The A$ will end a volatile year at 0.90.
5 --- Several notable bulls disappear from the forum and return under news names claiming that they saw the decline coming but the bottom is close and a new boom is imminent. BP will claim that despite the down turn his properties increased in value and that Q3 2012 is the new bottom.
6 --- Steve Keen's profile will rise in Australia and rightly so.
7--- Catweasel will post something that I can understand, Frank will puts his rents down, Shadow will concede a point and pigs will fly.
You got 1/4 of of point 7 correct (I conceded a point).
Wow - well good in Wisebear for putting that out there two years back. It shows what many bears were thinking then, but of course as many of us said, they were totally wrong. I just hope Wisebear didn't actually trade and take positions in commodites, equities, bonds etc with all his capital based on that outlook! If he did, he would have been wiped out.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
As much as I am entertained by your posts and wish you a merry Xmas I just can't see the property market picking itself off the mat anytime soon.
About a 50% chance that the global economy is going to capitulate next year. About a 100% chance the global economy will capitulate in the next five years.
This was a great all.
newjez
20 Dec 2011, 03:24 PM
We will lose a major European bank
At least one country will leave the Euro (Ireland?)
Stock markets will drop 20%
House prices will drop 10 - 20%
AUD will drop 10 -20%
Kim Jong un will ask - 'so what does this button do?'
My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015 (by which day in 2015 was never specified).
Currently this requires average growth of approximately 10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.
To get the more accurate figure shadow,you need to deduct 10% for all the years you mentioned. I doubt you will ever see 1 mill median in your lifetime.
would be more than happy to place money on it preferably for a childrens charity
LOL, another Crazy Ted classic. He was predicting 10% per annum declines for Sydney from 2012 to 2015.
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