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2012 APF Housing Market Predictions Thread
Topic Started: 19 Dec 2011, 11:47 AM (19,424 Views)
Rastus2
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Strindberg
22 Dec 2012, 05:14 PM
No price crash according to Kochie's charts you posted here. About 12% from peak it seems.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Strindberg,

you have not changed at all..

I just Love it when someone who does not live here takes the effort to educate me on the local real estate situation with some kind of online chart... lol



Your still very loose with the truth eh Stringberg ?

Since you want to cite Kochie as the expert... ok.



FYI, those charts are about 12 months old... sales and prices have not improved... indeed, they have gone the very way Kochie predicted ...



Here is the quote from the very page you probably lifted those charts.

"Why Gold Coast Real Estate Agents are the world's supreme optomists... or loose with the truth"

http://www.kochie.com.au/20120129527/why-gold-coast-real-estate-agents-are-the-worlds-supreme-optimists-or-loose-with-the-truth


Kochie
"Here are the facts:

- Gold Coast house prices are down 15.1% from their peak in March 2010, falling from $568 000 to $482 500


- Home units also peaked in March 2010 at $400 000, and have since fallen 15% to $340 000 in the December 2011 quarter

- On the Sunshine Coast house prices are down 13.9 % from their peak in December 2009 falling from $505 000 to $435 000

- Home units peaked in June 2010 at $367 500 and have dropped 16% to $309 000 at December 2011.

- SQM Research (an independent property research firm) is predicting another 7-9% across the board fall in value in the region in 2012

- There are still massive amounts of stock on the market and it’s not going down.




----------


So lets to the maths shall we ...

Gold Coast.

15% + 8% (average of the range predicted by Kochie for 2012) = 25%.

yup... I would agree that is the current situation on the gold coast.



I won't bother doing the rest...





So tell me... is 25% not a crash ? I think it is ;c)

IMHO, it's not over yet... Qld. Gov. public service cutbacks and strong AUD has hit Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast hard..


Carry on..
Edited by Rastus2, 23 Dec 2012, 12:30 AM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Wisebear
19 Dec 2011, 01:10 PM
Predictions are always tricky but I'll have a go:

1 --- The EU will blow in 2012 and at least one country will leave. Deflationary forces will continue to increase globally and more quantitative easing will happen but not enough to prevent further contraction. Globally stock markets will fall and the property bubbles will continue to deflate. The Australian property bubble will continue to lag the world and will have moderate falls of up to 10%.

2 --- Aussie unemployment to exceeds 6% as the mining boom falters. Commodity prices end the year lower.

3 --- Interest rates globally will remain low due to quantitative easing despite higher risks. Australian funding will come under pressure, the cash rate will fall 0.75% but most of the cuts will not be passed on. A rift will open between the government and the banks over policy.

4 --- Gold will reach US$2,200, Aussie bonds will rise, WTIC below US$75. The A$ will end a volatile year at 0.90.

5 --- Several notable bulls disappear from the forum and return under news names claiming that they saw the decline coming but the bottom is close and a new boom is imminent. BP will claim that despite the down turn his properties increased in value and that Q3 2012 is the new bottom.

6 --- Steve Keen's profile will rise in Australia and rightly so.

7--- Catweasel will post something that I can understand, Frank will puts his rents down, Shadow will concede a point and pigs will fly.
You got 1/4 of of point 7 correct (I conceded a point).
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Sydneyite
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Shadow
15 Nov 2013, 09:22 AM
Wisebear
19 Dec 2011, 01:10 PM
Predictions are always tricky but I'll have a go:

1 --- The EU will blow in 2012 and at least one country will leave. Deflationary forces will continue to increase globally and more quantitative easing will happen but not enough to prevent further contraction. Globally stock markets will fall and the property bubbles will continue to deflate. The Australian property bubble will continue to lag the world and will have moderate falls of up to 10%.

2 --- Aussie unemployment to exceeds 6% as the mining boom falters. Commodity prices end the year lower.

3 --- Interest rates globally will remain low due to quantitative easing despite higher risks. Australian funding will come under pressure, the cash rate will fall 0.75% but most of the cuts will not be passed on. A rift will open between the government and the banks over policy.

4 --- Gold will reach US$2,200, Aussie bonds will rise, WTIC below US$75. The A$ will end a volatile year at 0.90.

5 --- Several notable bulls disappear from the forum and return under news names claiming that they saw the decline coming but the bottom is close and a new boom is imminent. BP will claim that despite the down turn his properties increased in value and that Q3 2012 is the new bottom.

6 --- Steve Keen's profile will rise in Australia and rightly so.

7--- Catweasel will post something that I can understand, Frank will puts his rents down, Shadow will concede a point and pigs will fly.
You got 1/4 of of point 7 correct (I conceded a point).
Wow - well good in Wisebear for putting that out there two years back. It shows what many bears were thinking then, but of course as many of us said, they were totally wrong. I just hope Wisebear didn't actually trade and take positions in commodites, equities, bonds etc with all his capital based on that outlook! If he did, he would have been wiped out. :dry:
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Mike
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Elastic
19 Dec 2011, 12:17 PM
As much as I am entertained by your posts and wish you a merry Xmas I just can't see the property market picking itself off the mat anytime soon.

About a 50% chance that the global economy is going to capitulate next year.
About a 100% chance the global economy will capitulate in the next five years.
This was a great all.
newjez
20 Dec 2011, 03:24 PM
We will lose a major European bank

At least one country will leave the Euro (Ireland?)

Stock markets will drop 20%

House prices will drop 10 - 20%

AUD will drop 10 -20%

Kim Jong un will ask - 'so what does this button do?'
Another classics from Newjez
Edited by Mike, 15 Nov 2013, 10:10 AM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Veritas
21 Dec 2012, 12:39 PM
the notion that the Sydney median will be $1million by 2015 is la la stuff
La la la, la la la la...
Edited by Shadow, 31 May 2015, 08:34 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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doubleview
Member Avatar


Shadow
31 May 2015, 08:33 PM
La la la, la la la la...
Shall we bring the 2014 predictions thread up? Nah...... prob not as that will show you as having no idea.

I was axtually surprised @ how off the mark all your 2014 predictions where. can we bring it up?
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stinkbug
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 08:17 AM
So your prediction is for a Sydney median house price approaching $400K by 2015.

OK, I guess we'll see who was closer in 4 years time.
This post was in response to Dave289. Interesting to look back.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Rat
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Filthy Rodent

dave289
2 Feb 2012, 08:14 AM
Shadow
 
My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015 (by which day in 2015 was never specified).

Currently this requires average growth of approximately 10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.
To get the more accurate figure shadow,you need to deduct 10% for all the years you mentioned. I doubt you will ever see 1 mill median in your lifetime.

would be more than happy to place money on it preferably for a childrens charity
LOL, another Crazy Ted classic. He was predicting 10% per annum declines for Sydney from 2012 to 2015. :lol
Edited by Rat, 11 Aug 2017, 05:26 PM.
Consumer protection laws extended to small businesses. Banks not permitted to repossess due to non-monetary defaults (for example, a fall in the property value).
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