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2012 APF Housing Market Predictions Thread
Topic Started: 19 Dec 2011, 11:47 AM (19,429 Views)
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Predictions for the spring market

July 31, 2012 - 3:27PM

With spring fast approaching, sellers thinking of taking their property to market will already be in preparation mode.

But what exactly can they expect from the traditional selling season? Will it be all doom and gloom, or are things looking up?

Andrew Wilson, the senior economist at Australian Property Monitors (owned by Fairfax Media), gives his insights on what is happening in Australia's capital city markets.

Sydney

There's growing confidence in the Sydney market, says Wilson, and went on to say "There's still some quiet areas but I think the prospects for spring are quite optimistic from vendors".

Australian Property Monitors figures show modest price growth in Sydney over the June quarter and clearance rates for weekend auctions have picked up recently.

"We've got clearance rates averaging above 60 per cent now in July," Wilson says. That's higher than a year ago when clearance rates were in the mid 50s.

The action is mostly in the middle part of the market rather than the top end – although there are early signs of a rise in activity for pricier properties, particularly in the eastern suburbs and lower north shore, says Wilson.

"Leading indicators are quite positive and particularly compared to last spring where the market really did run out of puff," Wilson says.

"Of course, the key disclaimer to all of this is how the economy is performing and we've just started to see some more positive signs from the economy as well."

Melbourne

Melbourne has been a little surprising this year performing better than expected, says Wilson.

Read more: http://news.domain.com.au/domain/blogs/talking-property/predictions-for-the-spring-market-20120731-23c8k.html
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those
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Alex Barton
1 Aug 2012, 10:18 AM
Quote:
 
Predictions for the spring market

July 31, 2012 - 3:27PM

With spring fast approaching, sellers thinking of taking their property to market will already be in preparation mode.

But what exactly can they expect from the traditional selling season? Will it be all doom and gloom, or are things looking up?

Andrew Wilson, the senior economist at Australian Property Monitors (owned by Fairfax Media), gives his insights on what is happening in Australia's capital city markets.

Sydney

There's growing confidence in the Sydney market, says Wilson, and went on to say "There's still some quiet areas but I think the prospects for spring are quite optimistic from vendors".

Australian Property Monitors figures show modest price growth in Sydney over the June quarter and clearance rates for weekend auctions have picked up recently.

"We've got clearance rates averaging above 60 per cent now in July," Wilson says. That's higher than a year ago when clearance rates were in the mid 50s.

The action is mostly in the middle part of the market rather than the top end – although there are early signs of a rise in activity for pricier properties, particularly in the eastern suburbs and lower north shore, says Wilson.

"Leading indicators are quite positive and particularly compared to last spring where the market really did run out of puff," Wilson says.

"Of course, the key disclaimer to all of this is how the economy is performing and we've just started to see some more positive signs from the economy as well."

Melbourne

Melbourne has been a little surprising this year performing better than expected, says Wilson.

Read more: http://news.domain.com.au/domain/blogs/talking-property/predictions-for-the-spring-market-20120731-23c8k.html
I went to an open house this past Saturday and I gave the agent my number and said I might go back to look with my wife. The agent has phoned me about 4 or 5 times since then trying to find out if I want to go to the Thursday open house. They seem a bit desperate.

There weren't any other people there when I was looking but I think a couple cars might have driven up as I was leaving.

I mentioned the house here before saying the house and land were bigger and the asking price lower than the selling price last November of another house in the area. But this land has a big slope in the back yard, so it's not directly comparable.
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labrynth
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Bump this bad boy and look at peoples predictions?
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Simon
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Wisebear
19 Dec 2011, 01:10 PM
1 --- The EU will blow in 2012 and at least one country will leave. Deflationary forces will continue to increase globally and more quantitative easing will happen but not enough to prevent further contraction. Globally stock markets will fall and the property bubbles will continue to deflate. The Australian property bubble will continue to lag the world and will have moderate falls of up to 10%.

2 --- Aussie unemployment to exceeds 6% as the mining boom falters. Commodity prices end the year lower.

3 --- Interest rates globally will remain low due to quantitative easing despite higher risks. Australian funding will come under pressure, the cash rate will fall 0.75% but most of the cuts will not be passed on. A rift will open between the government and the banks over policy.

4 --- Gold will reach US$2,200, Aussie bonds will rise, WTIC below US$75. The A$ will end a volatile year at 0.90.

5 --- Several notable bulls disappear from the forum and return under news names claiming that they saw the decline coming but the bottom is close and a new boom is imminent. BP will claim that despite the down turn his properties increased in value and that Q3 2012 is the new bottom.

6 --- Steve Keen's profile will rise in Australia and rightly so.

7--- Catweasel will post something that I can understand, Frank will puts his rents down, Shadow will concede a point and pigs will fly.
Seven out of seven fails, NotSoWiseBear! :o
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barns
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carter
19 Dec 2011, 11:47 AM
With another year almost over, time to make predictions for 2012. Here's mine.........

1 --- National clearance rates drop below 35 percent as the real estate market grinds to a halt
2 --- Stock on the market reaches new highs and the spruikers capitulate
3 --- National house prices fall another 10 percent in 2012
4 --- ASX falls below 3500
5 --- Several notable bulls disappear from the forum without any explanation
6 --- Steve Keen is finally vindicated

2012 will be a happy new year for the property bears!
1. No
2. No
3. No
4. Yes for a while now over
5. No but bears: Ted, Crazy Dave, Raveswei gone
6. No - although he is predicting property prices to rise in 2013

Black Panther
19 Dec 2011, 11:58 AM
As each month passes in 2012 it will become more apparent that Q3 2011 was the bottom of the Real Estate down cycle, and that a new up cycle has begun.

This up cycle will be either a normal boom, or a super boom, depending on oversea's circumstances and the Governments tuning of interest rates.

The difference between renting and paying a mortgage will continue to decrease as rents surge strongly due to a lack of investment in Real Estate over the last 2 years.

The stranglers and slow learners in the Bear camp will be routed and capitulate on mass.

Hmm, not bad - jury still out on tipping point as been flat all year but certainly more places are cheaper to buy now than rent compared to the start of the year.
earthsta
19 Dec 2011, 12:13 PM
I predict that Blackie wont be posting here by the end of next year.
Wrong.
Wisebear
19 Dec 2011, 01:10 PM
Predictions are always tricky but I'll have a go:

1 --- The EU will blow in 2012 and at least one country will leave. Deflationary forces will continue to increase globally and more quantitative easing will happen but not enough to prevent further contraction. Globally stock markets will fall and the property bubbles will continue to deflate. The Australian property bubble will continue to lag the world and will have moderate falls of up to 10%.

2 --- Aussie unemployment to exceeds 6% as the mining boom falters. Commodity prices end the year lower.

3 --- Interest rates globally will remain low due to quantitative easing despite higher risks. Australian funding will come under pressure, the cash rate will fall 0.75% but most of the cuts will not be passed on. A rift will open between the government and the banks over policy.

4 --- Gold will reach US$2,200, Aussie bonds will rise, WTIC below US$75. The A$ will end a volatile year at 0.90.

5 --- Several notable bulls disappear from the forum and return under news names claiming that they saw the decline coming but the bottom is close and a new boom is imminent. BP will claim that despite the down turn his properties increased in value and that Q3 2012 is the new bottom.

6 --- Steve Keen's profile will rise in Australia and rightly so.

7--- Catweasel will post something that I can understand, Frank will puts his rents down, Shadow will concede a point and pigs will fly.

A very Happy Christmas and a prosperous New Year to all.
All wrong except 3 which is close.
NotFooled
19 Dec 2011, 01:50 PM
1 -- Gold to pass $2000 AUD

2 -- Major conflict in the Middle East with overt or covert US involvement

3 -- Increasing Chinese aggression at sea as they make a grab for resources leading to an expansion of military budgets by neighboring countries

4 -- Share market all over the place with wild swings

5 -- Someone will claim to have birthed the reincarnation of Steve Jobs




All wrong except 4 - although swings weren't very pronounced (wild).
newjez
20 Dec 2011, 03:24 PM
We will lose a major European bank

At least one country will leave the Euro (Ireland?)

Stock markets will drop 20%

House prices will drop 10 - 20%

AUD will drop 10 -20%

Kim Jong un will ask - 'so what does this button do?'
Very wrong.
georgie
10 Jan 2012, 12:31 PM
For Sydney, I see rents increasing at a faster pace than 2011. Properties prices will stagnate for the year. The interest rate cuts won't do much for value but it will help stimulate the market in terms of turnover and volume. Sydney prices will grow (but below inflation) because the mainstream are not educated enough to invest in other financial tools.

I see 4 interest rate cuts but the banks only passing on 1 or 2.

People by December will start to capitulate if any of the following occurs:

Increased cost of living forces people to sell at large discounts
America goes to war
Israel pisses of Iran or vice versa
China's property bubble becomes obvious to he mainstream
Europe implodes
Another act of nature on a developed country eg Japanese Tsunami
2012 predictions of the end of the world from the Mayans comes to fruition

Without one of these factors the only possibility of a crash is if the negative feedback loop causing the economy to head south. As property prices fall, people feel less wealthy, they stop spending, there is less money in the economy, unemployment rises and property prices fall. As property prices fall further people feel even less wealthy so they stop spending even further and as there is less money in the economy unemployment rises and property prices fall.


If you are buying in Sydney chase the yields.
Probably closest so far.
micnugget
10 Jan 2012, 03:26 PM
My best prediction is that a boom or a crash are pretty unlikely.
I will say prices flat for the year. (-5% to 5%) change, but with more downside risk than upside.
Correct.
Edited by barns, 20 Dec 2012, 10:25 PM.
“You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means” - Inigo Montoya
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earthsta
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Shadow
10 Jan 2012, 09:39 PM
I predict that I will continue to get 10-20% of my predictions completely wrong.

(But this one will be one of the 80-90% I get right)
You've been 100% wrong so far this year. Another year passes without your predicted 9% rise :lol
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Shadow
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earthsta
20 Dec 2012, 10:34 PM
You've been 100% wrong so far this year. Another year passes without your predicted 9% rise :lol
I haven't predicted a 9% rise. My prediction is for Sydney house prices to approach $1M by 2015.

I am generally 10-20% wrong, but I'm happy with my 80-90% success rate.

How's your 40% crash from 2009 levels going? Oh yes, prices are still higher than in 2009...
Edited by Shadow, 20 Dec 2012, 10:51 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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earthsta
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 07:59 AM
My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015 (by which day in 2015 was never specified).

Currently this requires average growth of approximately 10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.

And might as well put in a reminder that this refers to the Residex index, freestanding houses, currently at approx $660K.
OOhhh... that's gotta hurt


Black Panther
2 Feb 2012, 10:24 AM
but as the 2nd half of the year travels, capital growth will quicken.

This quickening will develop into a full blown gallop as we enter 2013.

Fail :bye:
Edited by earthsta, 20 Dec 2012, 10:41 PM.
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Shadow
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barns
20 Dec 2012, 10:16 PM
5. No but bears: Ted, Crazy Dave, Raveswei gone
Other notable bear disappearances include Audas, Rastus2, McGusto (he bought a house), and Bobby (though he may be back with a new ID).
earthsta
20 Dec 2012, 10:38 PM
OOhhh... that's gotta hurt
Yeah, Sydney house price being up almost 30% since I started buying is really hurting. :re:

How's your 40% crash from 2009 levels going? Ouch!
Edited by Shadow, 20 Dec 2012, 10:43 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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earthsta
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 09:33 PM

This one still has almost four years to play out.

Four years of 10% per annum average growth.

Sydney house prices to approach $1M by 2015.

Enjoy.
I enjoying it .... watching you get it completely wrong for ANOTHER year :lol
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