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2012 APF Housing Market Predictions Thread
Topic Started: 19 Dec 2011, 11:47 AM (19,430 Views)
Shadow
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Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 09:53 PM
in that case, all of Keen's predictions were preliminary as well.. much the same as yourself
Only if he states at the same time as making the prediction that he is simply extrapolating a trend line.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Shadow
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barns
2 Feb 2012, 09:50 PM
OMG - you don't really have your savings in Suncorp do you? And you call property investment risky...

Also, you use Bing. Who does that?
I'd say Earthsta probably spends a lot of time on his rightmost tab (ABC for Kids).

There are some interesting images in the rest of his photobucket account... http://s969.photobucket.com/albums/ae174/aussie_crash/?start=all

It seems to mostly consist of 'hilarious' insulting images with 'witty' captions like 'you're a moron' that he uses when defeated in debates with forum members, children, animals and inanimate objects.
Edited by Shadow, 2 Feb 2012, 10:01 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 09:55 PM
Only if he states at the same time as making the prediction that he is simply extrapolating a trend line.

don't be such a child, you can't make up your own special rules for yourself in the real world. Your not 3 years old now shady.

You made a prediction in 2008 on ss and thought you were being smart.

You then modified it down in 2010, then down again shortly after, and then again...

Now you want to say the word 'by' didn't matter, nor the initial value, nor the next value, nor the month of june, all of these were either preliminary predictions or somehow not to be taken seriously.

I did warn you on the thread where a few bulls tore Keen's reputation to shreds that the same standards of critic would be applied to your predictions... so suck it up big boy... mommy can't kiss this one better.

Keen's predictions are wiped by the same brush strokes you have used to wipe yours... no special treatment sorry, even if you ask nice.

There... all better now ?
Edited by Rastus2, 2 Feb 2012, 10:25 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rastus2
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 09:58 PM
I'd say Earthsta probably spends a lot of time on his rightmost tab (ABC for Kids).

There are some interesting images in the rest of his photobucket account... http://s969.photobucket.com/albums/ae174/aussie_crash/?start=all

It seems to mostly consist of 'hilarious' insulting images with 'witty' captions like 'you're a moron' that he uses when defeated in debates with forum members, children, animals and inanimate objects.

wow, you have been creeping around people's photobucket for a while eh shady ?

I remember when someone came across a bulls ages ago and those pictures of the REA's were all over it... was that yours, I can't remember exactly ...
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 10:27 PM
wow, you have been creeping around people's photobucket for a while eh shady ?

I remember when someone came across a bulls ages ago and those pictures of the REA's were all over it... was that yours, I can't remember exactly ...
Hardly creeping... Earthsta posted it.

I think the one that you guys 'exposed' on GHPC belonged to BearTrap, and I think he led you all on a wild goose chase.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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earthsta
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 09:58 PM
barns
2 Feb 2012, 09:50 PM
OMG - you don't really have your savings in Suncorp do you? And you call property investment risky...

Also, you use Bing. Who does that?
I'd say Earthsta probably spends a lot of time on his rightmost tab (ABC for Kids).

There are some interesting images in the rest of his photobucket account... http://s969.photobucket.com/albums/ae174/aussie_crash/?start=all

It seems to mostly consist of 'hilarious' insulting images with 'witty' captions like 'you're a moron' that he uses when defeated in debates with forum members, children, animals and inanimate objects.
Peruse to your hearts content.

.....14.5% pa for the next three years......
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Shadow
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Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 10:24 PM
Keen's predictions are wiped by the same brush strokes you have used to wipe yours
The timeframes for Keen's predictions have already passed, and his predictions all failed to eventuate within the timeframes he gave.

The timeframe for my prediction is still almost four years away.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 10:34 PM
The timeframes for Keen's predictions have already passed, and his predictions all failed to eventuate within the timeframes he gave.

The timeframe for my prediction is still almost four years away.
Nice try, but your a big boy now and have to reap what you sow.

What you claim were his predictions were only preliminary estimates... they are all cleaned when you wiped your hands of your own 2008 and 2010 versions of your prediction(s) and called them 'pre-predictions'... silly you eh ?

I am sure he will give more solid predictions once he has gathered more data as you have done.

What is good for you is good for him also :hug:
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rastus2
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 10:32 PM
Hardly creeping... Earthsta posted it.

I think the one that you guys 'exposed' on GHPC belonged to BearTrap, and I think he led you all on a wild goose chase.

not me shadow. although I did see the thread.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Admin
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Quote:
 
Why forecasting is a mug's game

May 11, 2012 - 2:24PM

If you want testimony to the fact that economic forecasting is a mug's game, ask any of the economists (just about all of them) who predicted yesterday's headline unemployment rate was going to rise to 5.3 per cent when it printed as falling to 4.9 per cent

And given that wide error margin just from one month's labor force numbers to the next, it would be a hard or simply stupid marker to expect Treasury's budget forecasts (or anyone else's) for the national economy 12 and 24 months away to actually be accurate.

Given the multiple variables and “unknown unknowns” interacting to produce a beast as complex as the Australian economy, it's close to being a fluke when big forecasts are occasionally realised.

Treasury's budget forecasts aren't a promise of delivery - that's left to foolish politicians. Rather they are the outworking of a vision of a likely narrative. From the listener's point of view, the question is the credibility of the narrative, how reasonable it is, rather than the final figures.

It has long been this writer's opinion that the monthly ABS seasonally adjusted labor force figures are simply too volatile to mean much.

It seems the economists' commentariat were predicting a rise in unemployment just became the previous month had been a surprise jump in jobs - they're down to averaging out the flipping of coins.

The trend series figures are worth serious consideration, even though none of the market commentary bothers to mention them. The March trend unemployment rate was revised down a notch to 5.1 per cent and stayed there in April thanks to some modest but welcome employment growth.

The big reality is that employment growth remains soft, but it's still growth and that's a nice thing.

I'd argue that the commentariat is prey to reading too many websites, watching too much TV and listening to each other instead of spending more time considering the bigger story the ABS has been telling.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/why-forecasting-is-a-mugs-game-20120511-1yh1b.html#ixzz1uXYYAygU
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