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2012 APF Housing Market Predictions Thread
Topic Started: 19 Dec 2011, 11:47 AM (19,423 Views)
carter
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Tasman Vagrant

With another year almost over, time to make predictions for 2012. Here's mine.........

1 --- National clearance rates drop below 35 percent as the real estate market grinds to a halt
2 --- Stock on the market reaches new highs and the spruikers capitulate
3 --- National house prices fall another 10 percent in 2012
4 --- ASX falls below 3500
5 --- Several notable bulls disappear from the forum without any explanation
6 --- Steve Keen is finally vindicated

2012 will be a happy new year for the property bears!
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Black Panther
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As each month passes in 2012 it will become more apparent that Q3 2011 was the bottom of the Real Estate down cycle, and that a new up cycle has begun.

This up cycle will be either a normal boom, or a super boom, depending on oversea's circumstances and the Governments tuning of interest rates.

The difference between renting and paying a mortgage will continue to decrease as rents surge strongly due to a lack of investment in Real Estate over the last 2 years.

The stranglers and slow learners in the Bear camp will be routed and capitulate on mass.

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Perthite
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Sorry BP there is nothing such as a normal boom. Booms are rare and anything but normal.
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earthsta
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I predict that Blackie wont be posting here by the end of next year.
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Elastic
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Black Panther
19 Dec 2011, 11:58 AM
As each month passes in 2012 it will become more apparent that Q3 2011 was the bottom of the Real Estate down cycle, and that a new up cycle has begun.

This up cycle will be either a normal boom, or a super boom, depending on oversea's circumstances and the Governments tuning of interest rates.

The difference between renting and paying a mortgage will continue to decrease as rents surge strongly due to a lack of investment in Real Estate over the last 2 years.

The stranglers and slow learners in the Bear camp will be routed and capitulate on mass.

As much as I am entertained by your posts and wish you a merry Xmas I just can't see the property market picking itself off the mat anytime soon.

About a 50% chance that the global economy is going to capitulate next year.
About a 100% chance the global economy will capitulate in the next five years.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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muzza
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carter
19 Dec 2011, 11:47 AM

5 --- Several notable bulls disappear from the forum without any explanation
....agree. If indeed some of these posters are shills they will jump ship if things deteriorate further and their efforts are unrewarded.

...I predict that I will be eating and drinking far too much for several weeks.
...that I will be ceasing paid employment towards the end of the year (2012)
...that I may very well purchase a new PPOR towards the end of the year, depending on speed and direction of price changes
...that I will remain as uncertain about the real estate market as ever.

Happy xmas all, and thanks to everyone who has helped me to learn about the market over the past year. :D
Edited by muzza, 19 Dec 2011, 01:51 PM.
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raveswei
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2012 is not special or “life changing” for our property bubble – bubble already burst and it’s going through expected phases. My predictions from last year were fairly good and I expect same to continue if no big external event happens.

“year and a half period of slow price falls” I predicted, will continue in first half of 2012. Than, price fall will accelerate for a year or so, before it slows down again.

This is under assumption that no catastrophic event will hit world economy. I cannot give any prediction under that assumption. If Europe explodes even world war is not something impossible.

BP
 


How do you think it will be more apparent that Q3 2011 was the bottom? Prices continued to fall in Q4 2011 so even if market recovers suddenly, that would just show that Q4 was bottom, but not Q3.
Edited by raveswei, 19 Dec 2011, 01:08 PM.
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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Wisebear
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Predictions are always tricky but I'll have a go:

1 --- The EU will blow in 2012 and at least one country will leave. Deflationary forces will continue to increase globally and more quantitative easing will happen but not enough to prevent further contraction. Globally stock markets will fall and the property bubbles will continue to deflate. The Australian property bubble will continue to lag the world and will have moderate falls of up to 10%.

2 --- Aussie unemployment to exceeds 6% as the mining boom falters. Commodity prices end the year lower.

3 --- Interest rates globally will remain low due to quantitative easing despite higher risks. Australian funding will come under pressure, the cash rate will fall 0.75% but most of the cuts will not be passed on. A rift will open between the government and the banks over policy.

4 --- Gold will reach US$2,200, Aussie bonds will rise, WTIC below US$75. The A$ will end a volatile year at 0.90.

5 --- Several notable bulls disappear from the forum and return under news names claiming that they saw the decline coming but the bottom is close and a new boom is imminent. BP will claim that despite the down turn his properties increased in value and that Q3 2012 is the new bottom.

6 --- Steve Keen's profile will rise in Australia and rightly so.

7--- Catweasel will post something that I can understand, Frank will puts his rents down, Shadow will concede a point and pigs will fly.

A very Happy Christmas and a prosperous New Year to all.
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

1 -- Gold to pass $2000 AUD

2 -- Major conflict in the Middle East with overt or covert US involvement

3 -- Increasing Chinese aggression at sea as they make a grab for resources leading to an expansion of military budgets by neighboring countries

4 -- Share market all over the place with wild swings

5 -- Someone will claim to have birthed the reincarnation of Steve Jobs




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newjez
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We will lose a major European bank

At least one country will leave the Euro (Ireland?)

Stock markets will drop 20%

House prices will drop 10 - 20%

AUD will drop 10 -20%

Kim Jong un will ask - 'so what does this button do?'
Edited by newjez, 20 Dec 2011, 03:31 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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