Yes, the climate has been changing long before we were around but the RATE OF CHANGE of gases and temperature in the atmosphere has never been as great
How do we know? How accurate were the rate of change measurements a few million years ago?
Thanks - that's the first time I have seen someone put a figure on it.
Can you link to the evidence for your 50%+ figure?
Probably, I'll have a look later. Could take a bit of searching to find something along these lines. Therefore I'm going off a mental picture of rates of change.
Perhaps you could try to find something (credible) that shows less than 50% ?
The reliability of rates of change of old data is another area all together. Yes, it is not of the same standard as today as it doesn't have as many data points and not anything like direct measurement. (although I wish it was because then I'd sell more instruments).
Thanks - that's the first time I have seen someone put a figure on it.
Can you link to the evidence for your 50%+ figure?
Wasn't too hard to find something reasonable. The supporting data should be found through links - I've got to get back to real work. (My ill-formed quasi-socialist/scientific/altruistic bear streak means I don't have multiple houses to get rent from....:))
Wasn't too hard to find something reasonable. The supporting data should be found through links - I've got to get back to real work. (My ill-formed quasi-socialist/scientific/altruistic bear streak means I don't have multiple houses to get rent from....:))
Thanks, but that's not evidence - it's just one guy's opinion...
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He was asked recently on RC, “what percentage of global warming is due to human causes vs. natural causes?” I’m posting his reply here because it’s a good answer and frankly much clearer than the one science advisor John Holdren gave at today’s House hearing to an almost identical question — though I thought Holdren and Lubchenco were both terrific, especially in their opening statements, and I hope to get those videos up as soon as they are available. Schmidt explained:
Over the last 40 or so years, natural drivers would have caused cooling, and so the warming there has been … is caused by a combination of human drivers and some degree of internal variability. I would judge the maximum amplitude of the internal variability to be roughly 0.1 deg C over that time period, and so given the warming of ~0.5 deg C, I’d say somewhere between 80 to 120% of the warming. Slightly larger range if you want a large range for the internal stuff.
Personally I don't think it's possible to measure human impact on climate change.
We don't have a clear picture of what the climate was doing before humans were around.
The climate is going to keep on changing whatever we do. We should just adapt to it.
Who's to say a warming planet won't be better for us than a cooling planet?
If climate change was making the planet cooler should do something to warm it up?
Just let the climate change and adapt to the changes. We can't prevent them.
If you are looking to a stranger on an online forum for this information it is clear why you would be a sceptic.
I would recommend looking looking into some of the work by the overwhelming majority of the world's climate scientists. I am sure their research, evidence and conclusions are more reliable than randoms on the internet.
Yes it is. You seem like a pretty intelligent person. Don't fall for it. Seriously, look into it properly.
I would again refer you to the book Merchants of Doubt in that it may offer some insight as to where the misinformation is coming from.
Synopsis from Amazon;
The U.S. scientific community has long led the world in research on such areas as public health, environmental science, and issues affecting quality of life. Our scientists have produced landmark studies on the dangers of DDT, tobacco smoke, acid rain, and global warming. But at the same time, a small yet potent subset of this community leads the world in vehement denial of these dangers.
Merchants of Doubt tells the story of how a loose-knit group of high-level scientists and scientific advisers, with deep connections in politics and industry, ran effective campaigns to mislead the public and deny well-established scientific knowledge over four decades. Remarkably, the same individuals surface repeatedly—some of the same figures who have claimed that the science of global warming is "not settled" denied the truth of studies linking smoking to lung cancer, coal smoke to acid rain, and CFCs to the ozone hole. "Doubt is our product," wrote one tobacco executive. These "experts" supplied it.
Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway, historians of science, roll back the rug on this dark corner of the American scientific community, showing how ideology and corporate interests, aided by a too-compliant media, have skewed public understanding of some of the most pressing issues of our era.
Anthropogenic global warming is possible but not proven (either way), and it’s not true that 97% of climate scientists agree about anthropogenic global warming. Not even 97% scientists agree that there is global warming caused by anything.
well, I would disagree with that, 97% of climate scientists do agree there is man made warming, what they do not completely agree upon is the mechanism, severity and other driving forces. I would point you to a site like realclimate.org but I hazard a guess that you have already heard of them and have your own reasons for discounting much of the information there.
I’m not saying that climate change is not real or that is not caused by humans. What I’m saying is that it’s not true that 97% of climatologist agree that global warming even exists and even less of them that is human made.
If you think that few hundred scientists from several western countries is 97% of all you will have to prove that.
There are 1000 scientist, many of them meteorologists and climatologist that publicly disagree with anthropogenic global warming idea. To make your 97% you would have to find at least 32.3 times as many scientists that claim anthropogenic global warming is real.
Once again, I’m not saying global warming is not real or it’s not human made. I’m just saying that there are so many unknowns that is still hard to tell.
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As for your other comments about how the climate has changed, before and now. The climate does respond and change significantly over time, and there are several driving mechanisms. And as many skeptics rightly point out that the carbon level has been higher in the earth's past. What a lot of people overlook though is the change that humans have brought to the earth's eco systems starting ever so small around 8000 years ago when basic farming practices started. There is a 23,000 year trend (I could be wrong on the exact cycle time) for natural carbon dioxide in the air (at levels both higher and lower than todays concentration). The minima tends to co-incide with ice ages (I think the cycles go back around 400,000 years so far), and we should be at a minima now, but we aren't. Also you should consider the basic chemistry of carbon dioxide. It is a greenhouse gas, and even back of the napkin calculations show the amounts we are pumping into the air are enough to affect the earth's climate. That is how the science started in the 60s.
There is an excellent paper on this subject for you to read if you are interested (I'd post it now, but I can't seem to find the link, but I can look when I have more time)
Correlation between CO2 concentration and temperature is not an issue causation is. This might be true but and as far I know there is still no scientific proof to support this causation claim.
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