The figures reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012 there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures This means that the ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996
By David Rose PUBLISHED: 21:42 GMT, 13 October 2012
The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week.
The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.
This means that the ‘plateau’ or ‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years.
The new data, compiled from more than 3,000 measuring points on land and sea, was issued quietly on the internet, without any media fanfare, and, until today, it has not been reported.
This stands in sharp contrast to the release of the previous figures six months ago, which went only to the end of 2010 – a very warm year.
Ending the data then means it is possible to show a slight warming trend since 1997, but 2011 and the first eight months of 2012 were much cooler, and thus this trend is erased.
An article by David Rose appears today in the Mail on Sunday under the title: ‘Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released… and here is the chart to prove it’
It is the second article Mr Rose has written which contains some misleading information, after he wrote an article earlier this year on the same theme – you see our response to that one here.
To address some of the points in the article published today:
Firstly, the Met Office has not issued a report on this issue. We can only assume the article is referring to the completion of work to update the HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset compiled by ourselves and the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit.
We announced that this work was going on in March and it was finished this week. You can see the HadCRUT4 website here.
Secondly, Mr Rose says the Met Office made no comment about its decadal climate predictions. This is because he did not ask us to make a comment about them.
You can see our full response to all of the questions Mr Rose did ask us below
They seem to be picking at technicalities, claiming they didn't actually 'issue' the report, while acknowledging that such a report (which they compiled) does exist...
'Firstly, the Met Office has not issued a report on this issue. We can only assume the article is referring to the completion of work to update the HadCRUT4 global temperature dataset compiled by ourselves and the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit.'
They then acknowledge that Rose is more or less correct... 'Q.1 “First, please confirm that they do indeed reveal no warming trend since 1997.” The linear trend from August 1997 (in the middle of an exceptionally strong El Nino) to August 2012 (coming at the tail end of a double-dip La Nina) is about 0.03°C/decade'
And from the comments...
'We agree with Mr Rose that there has been only a very small amount of warming in the 21st Century. As stated in our response, this is 0.05 degrees Celsius since 1997 equivalent to 0.03 degrees Celsius per decade.'
0.03 degrees is basically 'no change'. What must the margin of error be like when we're talking changes of 0.03 degrees over a decade?
As another of the commenters on that article says...
'They used a 16 year period to prove global warming was occurring, but a 16 year period cannot be used to argue against it?'
So back to my original comment, if people refuse to believe these new figures, should we deride and mock them as 'climate non-change deniers'? Seems wasteful to spend huge sums of money and resources trying to prevent global warming that may not even be happening...
Considering what they spend on weapons I wouldn't worry too much.
Quote:
The $382 billion F-35 Joint Strike fighter program may well be the largest single global defense program in history. This major multinational program is intended to produce an “affordably stealthy” multi-role fighter
But GW is happening. It is quite simple, CO2 is the major greenhouse gas. It is already warming the average earth temperature by 33C otherwise we'd be frozen. Increase the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and the earth will get warmer, it is simple like that!
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!! You are no longer customer, you are property!!!
But GW is happening. It is quite simple, CO2 is the major greenhouse gas. It is already warming the average earth temperature by 33C otherwise we'd be frozen. Increase the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and the earth will get warmer, it is simple like that!
The climate has always changed. Sometimes the globe warms. Other times it cools.
The question is how much of that change is cause by human activity.
The climate has always changed. Sometimes the globe warms. Other times it cools.
The question is how much of that change is cause by human activity.
I don't think you get it Shadow. The average earth surface temperature is 19C, if we could remove all the CO2 from the air then the average earth surface temperature would be minus 14C. Put more CO2 into the air and the earth will get warmer......simple like that. If CO2 gets to 1,000 ppmbv in the air, the ice caps will all melt and the Earth will be warmer than it has been in 40 million years. A factor over looked is when the CO2 gets to that level chronic illness amongst mammals will be on the rise due to acidosis of the blood. 5,000 ppmbv and you can probably kiss all complex animal life as we know it goodbye. The greatest mass extinction of animal life in the Permian era was known to be caused by Global Warming.
Yes, all very interesting, but what proportion of climate change is caused by human activity?
I've seen estimates suggesting 'human-released' CO2 accounts for less than 1% of the total CO2 in the global carbon cycle.
I suspect human activity had very little to do with the Permian–Triassic extinction.
The climate has been changing forever. Sometimes the globe warms. Other times it cools.
Catweasel say it the interesting that mouzealot place the emphasis on quantify impact for a natural world, but a completely ignore for world of mouse house price.
This actually quite the common phenomenon among populist mouse. But once the again, it all a fall back on what it want to a believe and to build narrative how it the think. So it can be the Lord Monckton for one the issue and a newspaper the journalist parrot on another.
Catweasel say it the interesting that mouzealot place the emphasis on quantify impact for a natural world, but a completely ignore for world of mouse house price.
It might be interesting if it was true, but since you just made it up, it's not terribly interesting at all.
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