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The Climate Change Thread; New data shows global warming ended 16 years ago
Topic Started: 9 Nov 2011, 11:30 PM (35,260 Views)
Shadow
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nipa hut
5 Dec 2011, 08:33 PM
What effect would a massive increase in anthropogenic CO2 emission be most likely to have?

Or, if you believe it would have no effect, what is the science behind that prediction?
I don't believe it would have zero effect, however the magnitude of effect is unknown.

It might have minimal impact on climate change compared to natural causes. Nobody knows.
Edited by Shadow, 5 Dec 2011, 08:40 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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nipa hut
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Shadow
5 Dec 2011, 05:19 PM
Here is a good example of what I've been talking about on this thread - adapting to climate change, rather than trying to prevent it...

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/fish-can-be-bred-to-cope-with-warmer-seas-20111205-1of26.html


The question is not whether the biosphere will adapt, whether natural, anthropogenic, or a combination of these. There are bacteria that are adapted to live off arsenic, after all.

The question is whether the biosphere will adapt quickly and (in human terms) inexpensively enough to easily maintain its support for 7 - 9 billion humans. If there is any non-trivial deficiency in the speed, expense, ease, or geographical distribution of this adaptation, it will likely lead to war.

Which would complicate the adaptive process, to say the least.
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nipa hut
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Shadow
5 Dec 2011, 08:40 PM
I don't believe it would have zero effect, however the magnitude of effect is unknown.

It might have minimal impact on climate change compared to natural causes. Nobody knows.
So you can't answer the question then? That's more or less what I expected.

That's the usual response when I ask people like you that question. They go quiet.
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Shadow
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nipa hut
5 Dec 2011, 08:58 PM
So you can't answer the question then?
Nobody can - that's my point.

The magnitude of effect is completely unknown.

It might have minimal impact on climate change compared to natural causes, or it might not.

Nobody knows. Nobody can answer the question. You can't. I can't. Nobody can.
Edited by Shadow, 5 Dec 2011, 09:46 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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nipa hut
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Shadow
5 Dec 2011, 09:43 PM
Nobody can - that's my point.

The magnitude of effect is completely unknown.

It might have minimal impact on climate change compared to natural causes, or it might not.

Nobody knows. Nobody can answer the question. You can't. I can't. Nobody can.
Have you finished editing your non-answer?
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Shadow
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nipa hut
5 Dec 2011, 09:48 PM
Have you finished editing your non-answer?
That depends on whether or not you have finished asking me the question nobody knows the answer to.

Have you?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
5 Dec 2011, 08:40 PM
I don't believe it would have zero effect, however the magnitude of effect is unknown.

It might have minimal impact on climate change compared to natural causes. Nobody knows.

It might not... as you said, you don't know, so to only cite that it might have minimal effect compared to natural causes exposes your pre existing mindset to the amount of effect.

There seems to be a large number of scientists who say they know enough to say your mindset is wrong... who am I, or you to prove them wrong ?

I think it's correct to say nobody knows for certain... but I suspect a lot of scientists feel that they know with some degree of confidence.

Science is often not a clear cut yes or no... however if we wait for that binary answer we may simply miss any window of opportunity we have to act before it's too late. Simply citing that there is not 100% agreement on all scientists that cause and effect have been linked does not make a good case for inaction.

The evidence of smoking causing cancer was not cut and dry for quite a long time... the evidence of heavy metals causing significant damage to the ecology was equally hotly debated...

The growing body of evidence did, at some point, make it more and more likely that these two things should be linked to bad effects... there are, however, still scientists and doctors who claim that smoking is not a cause of cancer.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rastus2
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Shadow
5 Dec 2011, 05:19 PM
Here is a good example of what I've been talking about on this thread - adapting to climate change, rather than trying to prevent it...

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/fish-can-be-bred-to-cope-with-warmer-seas-20111205-1of26.html




Yes, its a fine example.
I have little doubt that some animals and humans will adapt to almost anything the earth, or humans throw at us.

So what percentage of animals do you think it would be ok to let go who are not able to adapt ? 5%, 50% ?


Now, should we ramp up uranium power plants with the knowledge that some species can survive the possible effects ?

Obviously not.

Perhaps some effort to mitigate for the climate change along side some effort to reign in what are seen as human causes would be wise.

No single approach will probably save more species than doing both.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
5 Dec 2011, 09:51 PM
The evidence of smoking causing cancer was not cut and dry for quite a long time... the evidence of heavy metals causing significant damage to the ecology was equally hotly debated...

The growing body of evidence did, at some point, make it more and more likely that these two things should be linked to bad effects... there are, however, still scientists and doctors who claim that smoking is not a cause of cancer.
The evidence for the earth not being flat was not cut and dry for quite a long time... many people thought sailing off the edge of the earth would be fatal. The growing body of evidence did, at some point, make it less and less likely that sailing to the edge of the earth should be linked to bad effects... there are, however, still scientists who claim that the earth is flat.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
nipa hut
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Shadow
5 Dec 2011, 09:50 PM
That depends on whether or not you have finished asking me the question nobody knows the answer to.

Actually, quite a large number of people -- scientists, rather than whatever it is you claim to be -- have posited answers to my question.

One can legitimately question their theories, models, or data, provided one has alternative theories, models, or data to put forth--and defend.

But to abstract or dismiss the state of debate as "nobody knows" is a non-answer, contributing ignorance rather than illumination to the discourse.
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