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ABS 6416.0 - House Price Indexes: House Prices, Eight Capital Cities, September Quarter 2011
Topic Started: 1 Nov 2011, 10:31 AM (2,479 Views)
Alex Barton
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ABS Data: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/A50B6B8CF85F0474CA25722900179E3F?opendocument

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Established house prices, Weighted average of eight capital cities - Quarterly % change
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Established house prices, Quarterly % change - September quarter 2011
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Quote:
 
SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS

ESTABLISHED HOUSE PRICES

Quarterly Changes

Preliminary estimates show the price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities decreased 1.2% in the September quarter 2011.
The capital city indexes decreased in Melbourne (-1.7%), Brisbane (-2.5%), Perth (-1.3%), Sydney (-0.2%), Adelaide (-0.9%), Canberra (-2.0%), Hobart (-1.0%) and Darwin (-0.4%).

Annual Changes (September Quarter 2010 to September Quarter 2011)

Preliminary estimates show that the price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities decreased 2.2% in the year to September quarter 2011.
Annually, house prices decreased in Brisbane (-5.2%), Darwin (-4.4%), Perth (-4.2%), Adelaide (-3.2%), Canberra (-2.2%), Melbourne (-2.1%), Sydney (-0.3%) and Hobart (-0.3%).
Edited by Alex Barton, 1 Nov 2011, 10:33 AM.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Alex Barton
1 Nov 2011, 10:31 AM
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That's it? Even I was expecting greater falls than that!

Sydney down -0.3% after rising more than 20% since 2009?

Wow, if these declines continue like this for another twenty years, almost half of my post-GFC gains will be wiped out!

LOL, where's the crash, bears? :laugh:
1 - Debunking Demographia. Demographia Survey Debunked. Australian housing is not particularly unaffordable by global standards.
2 - USA, Ireland, UK, Spain and Japan Property Bubbles versus Australia. All property bubbles had one thing in common...
3 - Banks can't margin call on residential property unless borrower defaults, because residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act 2009.
4 - Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by high taxes incurred by homeowners.
5 - Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
6 - Australian household formation rate faster than population growth rate since 1960s = ongoing improvement in housing affordability.
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Sydneyite
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So much for Apex's predictions in this thread (http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/9188290/) of 10% national falls! So much for Raves and Earthsta's prolific proclamations of massive price falls that supposedly have been well underway for many months now?? Looks like the bears will have to cancel the "crash is here" party again......

Like Shadow, this data is even a bit better than I was expecting.
Edited by Sydneyite, 1 Nov 2011, 10:51 AM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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apex
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Shadow
1 Nov 2011, 10:42 AM
That's it? Even I was expecting greater falls than that!

Sydney down -0.3% after rising more than 20% since 2009?

Wow, if these declines continue like this for another twenty years, almost half of my post-GFC gains will be wiped out!

LOL, where's the crash, bears? :laugh:
Yeah laugh it up idiot this is just the start of the falls, you can easily expect another 20 years of this and the falls will accelerate.

Meanwhile, sales volumes are through the floor and in the real world house prices are collapsing fast, never mind what these crappy statistics say.

Quote:
 
New house sales slump to 10-year low

Chris Zappone
November 1, 2011 - 11:22AM

New house sales fell in September, falling to their lowest monthly level in more than a decade.

New homes sold in September dropped by 3.5 per cent, following a 1.1 per cent rise in September, according to the Housing Industry Association - Jeld Wen report. Sales of new houses - excluding apartments and town houses - fell by 3.3 per cent in the month taking them to the lowest level since December 2000, with about 5000 houses changing hands. Sales of new apartments and town houses dropped 5.5 per cent.

"The September figures highlight the present soft conditions facing new home building and reinforce the importance that the RBA Board calls it right today by cutting interest rates," said HIA acting chief economist Andrew Harvey.

The Reserve Bank will reveal its decision on interest rates at 2.30pm AEDT, with most economists and markets tipping that the central bank will cut the cash rate to 4.5 per cent from 4.75 per cent where it has been for a year.

The housing and construction markets have been in the doldrums through most of the year with would-be buyers remaining cautious about taking on loans in the face of economic uncertainty and the lack of clear direction for interest rates. Before the share market plunges of August, most analysts predicted the RBA would lift the cash rate to contain inflation pressure. That expectation helped keep borrowing and spending in check.

Although house sales rose by 5.7 per cent in September in Queensland, where the state continues to bounce back from the January flooding, they fell in the other capital cities, the HIA said. In Victoria new house sales dropped the most, or 6.6 per cent in the month.

Softer sales have coincided with weaker home prices. In data released yesterday, capital city home prices fell 0.2 per cent in September after falling a 0.4 per cent in August, according to property research group RP Data-Rismark. It marked the ninth consecutive monthly fall in home prices in the RP Data measure

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/new-house-sales-slump-to-10year-low-20111101-1mt1w.html#ixzz1cPV7NOoI
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Strindberg
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The falls are much smaller than 2008/9 (here). Much smaller. 8 cities, -2.2% compared with -6.7% in the year to March 2009.

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Compare that with today's results;

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Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
1990-2010 20 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1950-1970
CHRIS BECKER NOW NEUTERED
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Mc_Gusto
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mcgusto

Adding up dec mar jun and now sept and the falls particularly in Melbourne are really starting to stack up
Silence of the BULLS

HA HA
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zaph
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apex
1 Nov 2011, 10:51 AM
Yeah laugh it up idiot this is just the start of the falls, you can easily expect another 20 years of this and the falls will accelerate.



so there will be 96% falls in the next 20 years, not taking compounding into account?

(1.2*4*20=96).

with falls accelerating can we expect a greater than 100% falls in prices over the next 20 years? will one be paid to buy a house in twenty years time?
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Mc_Gusto
1 Nov 2011, 10:59 AM
Adding up dec mar jun and now sept and the falls particularly in Melbourne are really starting to stack up
The annual fall in Melbourne is -2.1%

That includes the Dec, Mar, Jun and Sep quarters.

-2.1%... yes, it's really starting to stack up.

When did you sell your Melbourne place?

-2.1% wouldn't even cover the cost of the stamp duty if you were to buy your old house back now...
1 - Debunking Demographia. Demographia Survey Debunked. Australian housing is not particularly unaffordable by global standards.
2 - USA, Ireland, UK, Spain and Japan Property Bubbles versus Australia. All property bubbles had one thing in common...
3 - Banks can't margin call on residential property unless borrower defaults, because residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act 2009.
4 - Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by high taxes incurred by homeowners.
5 - Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
6 - Australian household formation rate faster than population growth rate since 1960s = ongoing improvement in housing affordability.
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Strindberg
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Mc_Gusto
1 Nov 2011, 10:59 AM
Adding up dec mar jun and now sept and the falls particularly in Melbourne are really starting to stack up
Yes, adding all those, its stacked up to 2.1% in Melbourne and 0.3% in Sydney. 2.2% for the weighted average of the 8 cap cities.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
1990-2010 20 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1950-1970
CHRIS BECKER NOW NEUTERED
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Sydneyite
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And remember ABS data covers detached houses only. In Sydney according to RP-Data and others unit prices are still higher now than they were 12 months ago.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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