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Irish residential property still in deep crisis, Dublin house prices 47% below peak; No wonder shadow's running scared
Topic Started: 30 Oct 2011, 02:54 PM (5,119 Views)
Wisebear
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Shadow
30 Oct 2011, 08:26 PM


Note how the Australian ratio has been at pretty much the same level for around 6 years.

It appears to have stabilised at that level.
Ok, so on a price to income ratio Australian property has been overvalued for 6 years and has stabilised at this overvalued level - what do you concluded from this? That it's no longer in a bubble? - surely not. Would Ireland have not been in a bubble if their price to income ratio had stabilised for 6 years?

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Sydneyite
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Wisebear
30 Oct 2011, 09:10 PM
Ok, so on a price to income ratio Australian property has been overvalued for 6 years and has stabilised at this overvalued level - what do you concluded from this? That it's no longer in a bubble? - surely not. Would Ireland have not been in a bubble if their price to income ratio had stabilised for 6 years?
6 years of stability suggests sustainability - therefore no bubble, by definition. Also proven by the fact that in that six years we have had a few significant interest cycles; low to high to low to moderately high again, and still price to income has been sustained.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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themoops
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Sydneyite
30 Oct 2011, 09:35 PM
6 years of stability suggests sustainability - therefore no bubble, by definition. Also proven by the fact that in that six years we have had a few significant interest cycles; low to high to low to moderately high again, and still price to income has been sustained.
I would suggest that the first 3 of those years were where the bubble had it's own momentum and the last 3 were the ones where it was propped up by the First Home Vendor's Boost and other government intervention like the loosening of the FIRB laws.

It's also The Economist that says we're 56% over valued, do you bulls wish to believe their data?
Edited by themoops, 30 Oct 2011, 09:41 PM.
stinkbug omosessuale


Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments.
Frank finally and unintentionally gives it up and admits he got where he is, primarily via dumb luck!
See here
Property will be 50-70% off by 2016.
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The Claw
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Mahamed the post-and-run coward does it again.

Mahamed knows nothing about Ireland.
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Perthite
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I love it how Perth is always ignored.... after going from almost the cheapest in Australia to the most expensive in a decade. I would love to see the run up from 1997 to 2007 if anyone has it handy.
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SuperEgo
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Perthite
30 Oct 2011, 11:56 PM
I love it how Perth is always ignored.... after going from almost the cheapest in Australia to the most expensive in a decade. I would love to see the run up from 1997 to 2007 if anyone has it handy.
show the graph to shadow

no doubt he will begin composing another diary letter for us all to read again
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Wisebear
30 Oct 2011, 09:10 PM
Ok, so on a price to income ratio Australian property has been overvalued for 6 years and has stabilised at this overvalued level
On what measure do you conclude that Australian property has been overvalued for 6 years?

Overvalued compared to what?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Wisebear
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Shadow
31 Oct 2011, 10:34 AM
On what measure do you conclude that Australian property has been overvalued for 6 years?

Overvalued compared to what?
Average real prices for the previous 100 years+
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Shadow
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Wisebear
31 Oct 2011, 11:59 PM
Average real prices for the previous 100 years+
Australian house prices have been rising in real terms for more than 60 years.

Are you saying the average of the real prices over the past 100 years is the 'correctly valued' price?

Can you give me a value on that... what should the Australian median house price be in today's dollars?
Edited by Shadow, 1 Nov 2011, 09:08 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Catweasel
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Shadow
1 Nov 2011, 09:07 AM
Australian house prices have been rising in real terms for more than 60 years.

Are you saying the average of the real prices over the past 100 years is the 'correctly valued' price?

Can you give me a value on that... what should the Australian median house price be in today's dollars?
In its search for pissing match, mouzealot reveal the very important. Benchmarks and the any kind of objective reality the very difficult or near to impossible to do a define in emotional cauldron of aussie the mouse house price. Further the more, it cannot hope to quantify a myriad of market distortions, emotional factors, the whole gamut across two separate point in 100-year period.

Irony of it the be is that mouzelaot itself will look to a past in attempt to understand a future. Totally contradictory it know, but welcome to a fairy tale that mouse house price fantasy has the become.
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