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Steve Keen: Australian house prices to fall 20% "peak to trough" by end of 2013; House price hit yet to come
Topic Started: 20 Oct 2011, 12:43 PM (18,389 Views)
stinkbug
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Ex BP Golly
13 Sep 2012, 10:13 AM
I have to contest that.

Average interest rates in Australia have run at about 8.5% over a century, yet since 1992 have averaged 6%.

Just because people are willing to take on crazy levels of debt should not change government, or central bank policy on interest rates.
Interest rates are now lower because concerted efforts were made to reduce inflation. Until inflation rises significantly, rates are unlikely to be significantly higher.
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Ex BP Golly
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stinkbug
13 Sep 2012, 10:19 AM
Interest rates are now lower because concerted efforts were made to reduce inflation. Until inflation rises significantly, rates are unlikely to be significantly higher.
I agree, I'm just trying to work out why Peter thinks present rates, which most pundits what to drop to a third of the 100 year average, which would then be almost half of the last decades average, are both a "punishment" and "unduly high".

What do you think a fair interest rate should be at the moment Peter?
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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stinkbug
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Ex BP Golly
13 Sep 2012, 10:35 AM
I agree, I'm just trying to work out why Peter thinks present rates, which most pundits what to drop to a third of the 100 year average, which would then be almost half of the last decades average, are both a "punishment" and "unduly high".

What do you think a fair interest rate should be at the moment Peter?
I suspect is has to do with our interest rates relative to other western economies. (And this is one of the reasons why our dollar is so high).

Unfortunately you have to take the bad with the good - having a relatively strong economy and stable housing market means our rates are unlikely to drop much, unless something goes drastically wrong.
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While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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Sydneyite
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peter fraser
13 Sep 2012, 12:42 AM


Well I suppose he has the same chance of being correct as every other pundit who has called a 20% fall.

It is a popular number, and he has given himself one more year than Keen.

.
Well ignoring the headline, what he actually said was this:

"We're not seeing anything like the US, Irish or Spanish property bust here," the South African-based strategist told a business lunch in Sydney. "But I think over the next 18 months it could go down by double digits, 12 or even 15 (per cent). A 15 to 20 per cent (fall) would be my outside downside over the entire period."

Not an unreasonable position to take at all, and not extreme either. He could well end up being right with that call, but then again he might not? We shall see......
Edited by Sydneyite, 13 Sep 2012, 11:09 AM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Strindberg
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Ex BP Golly
13 Sep 2012, 10:13 AM
I have to contest that.

Average interest rates in Australia have run at about 8.5% over a century, yet since 1992 have averaged 6%.

Just because people are willing to take on crazy levels of debt should not change government, or central bank policy on interest rates.
You made up both of those figures. They are false. This isn't bubblepedia.

There was a high interest ~20 year period between the mid 1970s and mid 1990s. Interest rates were much lower for all the rest of the 20th century.

The outlier over the last 100 years was that 20 year period circa 1974-1995 - not the last 17 years.

Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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newjez
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Sydneyite
13 Sep 2012, 11:06 AM
Well ignoring the headline, what he actually said was this:

"We're not seeing anything like the US, Irish or Spanish property bust here," the South African-based strategist told a business lunch in Sydney. "But I think over the next 18 months it could go down by double digits, 12 or even 15 (per cent). A 15 to 20 per cent (fall) would be my outside downside over the entire period."

Not an unreasonable position to take at all, and not extreme either. He could well end up being right with that call, but then again he might not? We shall see......
That seems quite reasonable barring no actual dissasters. I would have liked some more depth analysis though, especially on the dollar, possible recession, trade balance. I think the situation is far to complex to sling out a 20% reduction and leave it at that. I think you really need to work through the scenarios. With the Aust economy at the moment, you could argue for anything from 30% rise to 30% fall over the next two years, and you could be right for all of them. This is one possible future - it isn't ordained.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Ex BP Golly
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Strindberg
13 Sep 2012, 11:50 AM
You made up both of those figures. They are false. This isn't bubblepedia.

There was a high interest ~20 year period between the mid 1970s and mid 1990s. Interest rates were much lower for all the rest of the 20th century.

The outlier over the last 100 years was that 20 year period circa 1974-1995 - not the last 17 years.
Piss in the wind!

What was the average over that last 15 years then?

And the last century?

WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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earthsta
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stinkbug
13 Sep 2012, 10:19 AM
Interest rates are now lower because concerted efforts were made to reduce inflation. Until inflation rises significantly, rates are unlikely to be significantly higher.
What concerted effort?

All it required was to import Chinese made goods and remove key items from the CPI (fuel, housing)
Strindberg
13 Sep 2012, 11:50 AM
You made up both of those figures. They are false. This isn't bubblepedia.

There was a high interest ~20 year period between the mid 1970s and mid 1990s. Interest rates were much lower for all the rest of the 20th century.

The outlier over the last 100 years was that 20 year period circa 1974-1995 - not the last 17 years.
And you're making that bullshit up.

Official mortgage rates over the last 53 years have averaged 8.74%
Edited by earthsta, 13 Sep 2012, 05:42 PM.
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

bears aren't trying to revive the notion that rates are going up are they?
last week china was going to implode, now that iron ore prices have stablised it's interest rates. you bunch of dickheads couldn't predict a fuck in a brothel.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

earthsta
13 Sep 2012, 01:34 PM
you're making that bullshit up

Official mortgage rates over the last 53 years have averaged 8.9%
Last time I checked, 53 years didn't make a century.

Maybe something has changed... let's see...

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/century

Nope. Still 100 years in a century. Strindberg is right. You are wrong. Again.

Posted Image

Souce... http://cws.hillross.com.au/sites/dev.hillross-sites.com/files/2012-Jul-19-Olivers-Insights-Have-shares-lost-their-appeal-for-long-term-investors_Hillross.pdf
Edited by Shadow, 13 Sep 2012, 01:48 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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