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Steve Keen: Australian house prices to fall 20% "peak to trough" by end of 2013; House price hit yet to come
Topic Started: 20 Oct 2011, 12:43 PM (18,391 Views)
raveswei
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Quote:
 
Yes - your data seems dodgy (UBS). I'll stick with the IMF.

your data counts money that will be spend, not that was spend - that why your data is wrong.

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but but but Aussie housing was falling in 2008 too - just like USA. So it was't bursting then, but is now? Or is it busting then and is again now?..oh I can't keep up. Your contorted logic is impressive if not humorous.


house prices in Australia were falling but not bursting, did I ever said bubble was bursting in 2008?
Fall in 2008 was external disturbance from world that was falling apart, it almost burst our bubble - thanks to SK and Rudd it didn't.

But this time, our bubble is collapsing under its own weight. Since last year house prices are falling although our mining is booming like never before, world is doing fine (no major country is in recession), banks are willing to give as much as people want, FHOG are available ... everything is good but bubble is not doing well


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Either way, it is clear the US has housing stimulus (a point you seemed not to know).


I know that very well, my friend who sold his Chicago house in 2005 (it was clear to him how it will end), bought for cash almost identical house in 2009 with money he saved and with government help :)
who would say government would help people who made money out of crush :)

did man who bought house from him did better?


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So why didn't the US stimulus save US housing?

because nothing can save housing from it own bubble burst.
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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Strindberg
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raveswei
22 Oct 2011, 01:04 AM
house prices in Australia were falling but not bursting, did I ever said bubble was bursting in 2008?
YES, you did!

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8080281&t=8228178

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Bubble actually bursted in 2008 but it was reinflated by government following year.

That same thread contains one of your classic remarks:

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It makes me think that very low unemployment is sure signe of a bubble burst.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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dave289
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Strindberg
22 Oct 2011, 09:17 AM
Quote:
 
house prices in Australia were falling but not bursting, did I ever said bubble was bursting in 2008?
YES, you did!

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8080281&t=8228178



That same thread contains one of your classic remarks:

Prices were dropping in 2008 and ONLY started going upwards in 2009 after a brain explosion by the goverment that thought , hey our economy is going backwards and so is the

housing market ,what can we do to stop this , I know lets give evrybody a deposit for a house that cant afford it , that will get things moving again , and it did , but guess

what all the funny money is gone but now prices have been propped up further so now have much further to fall , great thinking by the government as usual.

Now they called this a stimulus package , something to stimulate the economy BECUASE IT IS NOT WORKING , just like when you use a laxative to stimulate things when they

are'nt working. So we are now back to where we were , a dying economy and house market to go with it , with no more laxatives in sight( a temperary solution at best as we

have all seen now).

The bubble has now bursted ,well and truly ,with prices now dropping in EVERY CAPITAL CITY IN AUSTRLIA .

And strindberg , you must live in melbourne as you seem to be always TRYING to defend it, a little article for you below that came out this morning , enjoy.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/twelve-melbourne-suburbs-lose-median-million-dollar-status/story-fn7x8me2-1226173502912
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zaph
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dave289
22 Oct 2011, 10:17 AM
Prices were dropping in 2008 and ONLY started going upwards in 2009 after a brain explosion by the goverment that thought , hey our economy is going backwards and so is the

housing market ,what can we do to stop this , I know lets give evrybody a deposit for a house that cant afford it , that will get things moving again , and it did , but guess

what all the funny money is gone but now prices have been propped up further so now have much further to fall , great thinking by the government as usual.

Now they called this a stimulus package , something to stimulate the economy BECUASE IT IS NOT WORKING , just like when you use a laxative to stimulate things when they

are'nt working. So we are now back to where we were , a dying economy and house market to go with it , with no more laxatives in sight( a temperary solution at best as we

have all seen now).

The bubble has now bursted ,well and truly ,with prices now dropping in EVERY CAPITAL CITY IN AUSTRLIA .

And strindberg , you must live in melbourne as you seem to be always TRYING to defend it, a little article for you below that came out this morning , enjoy.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/twelve-melbourne-suburbs-lose-median-million-dollar-status/story-fn7x8me2-1226173502912
prices are not dropping in EVERY cap city, but most. a couple are treading water, admittedly with water up to the chin.

it's yet to be seen whether this is the bust or a mere correction. time will tell. give it 6 months, to a year and we will have a clearer picture.
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Elastic
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b_b
21 Oct 2011, 01:33 PM
According to this, the the US stimulus was larger than Australian in 2009. How come the US stimulus did not "save" US house prices? Oh I forgot - Its different here...except when its the same...expect when its different.....yawn...

Posted Image

.
So you're saying that it wasn't the stimulus which saved australian house prices.
Now that's an interesting theory.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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zaph
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Elastic
22 Oct 2011, 11:47 AM
So you're saying that it wasn't the stimulus which saved australian house prices.
Now that's an interesting theory.
maybe timing is important?

Australia provided stimulus when prices were not widely known to be dropping, the sheeple moved in for free money in an 'ever increasing' property market.

The USA provided stimulus once it was clear to everyone that the market had dropped a lot.


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Sydneyite
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raveswei
21 Oct 2011, 08:11 PM

[a bunch of made up crap deleted]

so is he second grade or late starter? those two are not related in any way. There were many first grade late bloomers ans even more second grade prodigies
I said he was second rate AND also a late starter, not meaning to imply the former is due to the later.

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I see, somebody is first grade scientist only if he owns expensive property. Price of the house is the only measure of somebody's abilities and successes?

*sigh*..... I didn't say you have to own a house to be first grade, my point was that SK needed to media-whore himself in order to make some cash from book sales and speaking engagements, as at 53 years old he clearly had no wealth behind him - if he did he wouldn't have need a 3.5 x income mortgage to own a unit in Surry Hills. Please try and keep up.
Edited by Sydneyite, 22 Oct 2011, 12:40 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Catweasel
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Sydneyite
22 Oct 2011, 12:39 PM
my point was that SK needed to media-whore himself in order to make some cash from book sales and speaking engagements, as at 53 years old he clearly had no wealth behind him - if he did he wouldn't have need a 3.5 x income mortgage to own a unit in Surry Hills. Please try and keep up.
Catweasel laugh. Oh yes. If it want to make some fast cash, it write a book. Mouzealot should a remember most a author or academic have to use its own money to get a publish. But why a bitter and a nasty towards a Nutty Professor? Mouzealot may define its life by how a many rental property it may a have, but another may have the different life objective.
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zaph
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Louis Christopher rejects Steve Keen's forecast of 20% house price drop

University of Western Sydney associate professor of economics Steve Keen believes property prices may fall, peak to trough, by 20% through 2013, warning the most recent peak in prices may be the last one for some time.

But where house prices go over the next year depends mostly on employment growth and interest rates, says SQM managing director Louis Christopher, who warns predictions without significant modelling behind them cannot necessarily be relied upon.

"We need to see a lot more detailed analysis about these sorts of predictions," he told SmartCompany.

In an interview with Business Spectator, Keen says prices could fall by 20% through 2013 from their most recent peak.

"I'd be quite happy now to say the last price peak was the overall peak and so I'd expect something of the order of a 20% fall between now and say the end of 2013," he says.

"I think you could tie me down to saying I'd expect something of the order of a 20% fall from peak to trough, whatever the peak might be, whatever the trough's going to be."

Keen has previously made headlines for predicting that prices would fall by as much as 40% over a decade or 15-year period. Now, he tips that not only will house prices fall, but that as China's growth slows down, economic conditions in Australia will soften.

As a consequence, the country could see rising levels of unemployment.

"You know, it's murky data, but the trend appears to be for rising unemployment now and of course the falling house prices at the same time," he said.

"So I think the 'everything is wonderful here' argument partially is based on the important role of China, but it's also based on the same delusion that made Iceland think it was hot shit before it fell apart."

However, Christopher warns that while prices have fallen in some cities, there are too many variables to necessarily come up with a "nice round number".

"We need to look at questions like, what are his assumptions for interest rates over that time? Is he factoring in economic Armageddon or not? What are his assumptions for government stimulus?"

"Our forecasts are that if rates remain unchanged we will see, in some cities, a 15% decline from peak to trough, but we simply don't know the future direction for interest rates."

Christopher says the real question is employment growth and how global economic turmoil will affect that. But overall, he says, it's hard to come up with "big round numbers".

"We understand fundamentally there are plenty of problems with global systems of debt, I agree with that. But there needs to be a lot of detailed analysis around these types of predictions."

This article originally appeared on SmartCompany.

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/louis-christopher-rejects-steve-keen-s-house-price-crash-forecast/2011102052016
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Elastic
22 Oct 2011, 11:47 AM
So you're saying that it wasn't the stimulus which saved australian house prices.
Now that's an interesting theory.
I'd say it was the monetary stimulus rather than the fiscal stimulus.

Mortgage rates almost halved - that has a huge positive impact on household finances.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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