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Steve Keen: Australian house prices to fall 20% "peak to trough" by end of 2013; House price hit yet to come
Topic Started: 20 Oct 2011, 12:43 PM (18,393 Views)
raveswei
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Sydneyite
21 Oct 2011, 10:09 AM
The reason people get worked up about SK is because of all the media whoring he did in 2008 when he really caused a lot of concern for a lot of ordinary people, and it turned out that he was worrying them unnecessarily and could not have been more wrong with his outlook and predictions. If he layed off 60 minutes, the 7:30 report, ACA etc etc, then maybe the criticisms would not have flowed as harshly as they do.
If he didn't scare the crap out Rudd in 2008, Rudd would probably not react with the largest stimulus among developed countries and house prices today would be significantly lower than in 2008.

You know that Keen saved your property bull ass, but you cannot forgive him because he scared the crap out you so you sold in panic in 2008 just before the boom?
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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davel
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Sydneyite
21 Oct 2011, 10:09 AM
davel
21 Oct 2011, 10:01 AM
I dont see why people on both sides get so worked up about what SK did or didnt say. Hes not the messiah. Noone can predict these things with any certainty because econometric/mathematical models that cover all variables dont and cant exist.

Hes an academic and their job is to try to build theoretical models to increase understanding, but the sensible ones admit their frailties.

SK may not be that sensible in his pronouncements. However his theory on debt is quite compelling and seems to have some reflection in whats going on. I'd rather listen to him than many of the MSM drones, but that doesnt mean we should believe every word he says.
The reason people get worked up about SK is because of all the media whoring he did in 2008 when he really caused a lot of concern for a lot of ordinary people, and it turned out that he was worrying them unnecessarily and could not have been more wrong with his outlook and predictions. If he layed off 60 minutes, the 7:30 report, ACA etc etc, then maybe the criticisms would not have flowed as harshly as they do.
His predictions certainly wrong, his outlook probably not.

As Cat points out, should we not hear alternative ideas in case it scares people?

The entire economics and finance professions make millions of predictions every year most of which are wrong. His predictions are only "sensational" because they threaten the cartel of interests that runs the politic and economy. He's not in the "club" along with CJ and the rest of them.

We see this behaviour in stark relief now with the Bulls and MSM repeatedly warning us against "talking ourselves into a recession", "listening to the doomsayers" etc etc.

This is outright manipulation and I'm glad there are a few people around voiceing an alternative opinion.

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Catweasel
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davel
21 Oct 2011, 11:01 AM
Sydneyite
21 Oct 2011, 10:09 AM
davel
21 Oct 2011, 10:01 AM
I dont see why people on both sides get so worked up about what SK did or didnt say. Hes not the messiah. Noone can predict these things with any certainty because econometric/mathematical models that cover all variables dont and cant exist.

Hes an academic and their job is to try to build theoretical models to increase understanding, but the sensible ones admit their frailties.

SK may not be that sensible in his pronouncements. However his theory on debt is quite compelling and seems to have some reflection in whats going on. I'd rather listen to him than many of the MSM drones, but that doesnt mean we should believe every word he says.
The reason people get worked up about SK is because of all the media whoring he did in 2008 when he really caused a lot of concern for a lot of ordinary people, and it turned out that he was worrying them unnecessarily and could not have been more wrong with his outlook and predictions. If he layed off 60 minutes, the 7:30 report, ACA etc etc, then maybe the criticisms would not have flowed as harshly as they do.
His predictions certainly wrong, his outlook probably not.

As Cat points out, should we not hear alternative ideas in case it scares people?

The entire economics and finance professions make millions of predictions every year most of which are wrong. His predictions are only "sensational" because they threaten the cartel of interests that runs the politic and economy. He's not in the "club" along with CJ and the rest of them.

We see this behaviour in stark relief now with the Bulls and MSM repeatedly warning us against "talking ourselves into a recession", "listening to the doomsayers" etc etc.

This is outright manipulation and I'm glad there are a few people around voiceing an alternative opinion.

Catweasel laugh. Welcome to a counter-logical of the mouzealot.

-- Mouzealot world is planned for it by its masters, yet a mention of a Steve the Keen sends into its own Fukushima meltdown

-- What a concern mouzealot most is not a nutty the theory, but Steve the Keen prediction (especially a "big number") and battle with mouzealot spiritual leader.

-- Nutty Professor a mocked and a ridiculed by a mainstream, yet mouzealot bible like a SMH love the sensational. Why mouzealot not criticize its own religious leader in editorial at a Fairfax for give Nutty Professor soapbox?

-- Mouzealot work itself into trance about mouse house price being based on some the unshakeable "fundamental," yet it concern about leftfield nutbar scare a mouse to do a irrational. What does that say about a robust of a foundation.


Catweasel say a valuable "2nd derivative" of a Steve the Keen is to do the observe a reaction of mouzealot and spiritual leader like a Chris the Joye.
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Trojan
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davel
21 Oct 2011, 11:01 AM
His predictions certainly wrong, his outlook probably not.

As Cat points out, should we not hear alternative ideas in case it scares people?
I don't think people are against hearing his ideas - just the wrong sensationalist predictions.
I have read his ideas in the past and they make a lot of sense. We have been taking on a large amount of debt to buy houses. But to then go and tell everyone house prices will collapse 40% is where it gets disputed.
Uneducated bears keep quoting it as if it is a proven theorem and thus to correct these bears, we need to show why the 40% crash prediction has flaws ...

Do this make me a bull? Well, I have always maintained that I believe house prices can and will rise roughly in line with CPI over the long term. To the extreme bears, I will be branded a bull but to property spruikers, that is decidedly bearish.
Edited by Trojan, 21 Oct 2011, 11:37 AM.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Catweasel
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Trojan
21 Oct 2011, 11:34 AM


Do this make me a bull? Well, I have always maintained that I believe house prices can and will rise roughly in line with CPI over the long term. To the extreme bears, I will be branded a bull but to property spruikers, that is decidedly bearish.
Catweasel say that a why it a natural enemy of a Steve the Keen. Taking its belief further, as long as master have ability to influence price level and monetary system, it can't a be a anything but the mouzealot. Problem the be is that its faith in its master to plan its life for it come with one the price: sacrifice of its life to a social the contract. Oh.... and a unknown.

Biggest fear of a master is that mouse not participate in its system. Given that 90% of mouse pledge allegiance to master, it very a secure. Of a course, mouse too stupid to understand the consequence.
Edited by Catweasel, 21 Oct 2011, 11:47 AM.
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Trojan
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Catweasel
21 Oct 2011, 11:46 AM
Catweasel say that a why it a natural enemy of a Steve the Keen.
I'm not an enemy of Steve Keen.
And sorry, don't understand the rest of your post.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Catweasel
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Trojan
21 Oct 2011, 11:50 AM
I'm not an enemy of Steve Keen.
And sorry, don't understand the rest of your post.
Catweasel laugh. Yes there a many it not understand. The more it thinks it understands, the less control it have. That a bigger enemy for Mouzealot than a nutty professor.
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Sydneyite
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raveswei
21 Oct 2011, 10:59 AM
If he didn't scare the crap out Rudd in 2008, Rudd would probably not react with the largest stimulus among developed countries and house prices today would be significantly lower than in 2008.

You know that Keen saved your property bull ass, but you cannot forgive him because he scared the crap out you so you sold in panic in 2008 just before the boom?
You misunderstand - I actually DO thank SK for scaring Rudd and causing all that stimulus - I benefited enormously from it! The house I BOUGHT in late 2008 went up in value by a large amount - today it would cost me at least another $150k - $200k to buy the same house. SK didn't scare me, I listened to what he had to say but recognised him for what he was - an ex-socialist and second rate (late starter) academic who was media-whoring himself on the back of sensationalist predictions in order to make a few bucks from increased doom and gloom book sales and appearance fees etc. Given that at 53 he needed a mortgage 3.5 times his salary to own a unit in Surry Hills it's no wonder really?
Edited by Sydneyite, 21 Oct 2011, 12:43 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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davel
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Trojan
21 Oct 2011, 11:34 AM
davel
21 Oct 2011, 11:01 AM
His predictions certainly wrong, his outlook probably not.

As Cat points out, should we not hear alternative ideas in case it scares people?
I don't think people are against hearing his ideas - just the wrong sensationalist predictions.
I have read his ideas in the past and they make a lot of sense. We have been taking on a large amount of debt to buy houses. But to then go and tell everyone house prices will collapse 40% is where it gets disputed.
Uneducated bears keep quoting it as if it is a proven theorem and thus to correct these bears, we need to show why the 40% crash prediction has flaws ...

Do this make me a bull? Well, I have always maintained that I believe house prices can and will rise roughly in line with CPI over the long term. To the extreme bears, I will be branded a bull but to property spruikers, that is decidedly bearish.
See SK is an academic - his job is to attempt to boil the world down into an econometric model so that precise calculations of what will happen can be made. The sheer impossibility and hubris of this is not important, his job is to attempt to advance knowledge in this way. All academics get hot for their pet theories and many will defend them by making rash statements, because they are trying to change the mainstream of opinion about a certain issue, which requires you to shout loud and take extreme positions or just be ignored.

Even if you present it rationally "my model suggests that house prices could drop as much as 40% over time" becomes "Professor says houses prices will crash 40%!!!!".

OTOH the job of mainstream economic analysts e.g. Bloxham, Evans, Savanth, James is to make predictions which are not too divergent from each other as none wants to stand out as having got it wrong. If they all get it wrong, thats fine because thats to be expected. In addition, their analysis has to fit well with what their business strategies are. So it doesnt make a lot of sense for them to trash a particular asset class or whatever, when another part of their business is trying to sell people that product. Therefore, they will make nice cooing noises and be on the cautious side of careful, but with a bullish slant because ultimately their bosses dont make any money if everyone gets all pessimistic. There is absolutely no incentive for these people to identify potential problems, and so they dont for the most part.

There are some free-thinking big-bank analysts around, but they tend to be in short supply.

So the point is, do you listen to the people with a vested interest in a given outcome who all parrot the same line, and all get it somewhat right with their very cautious predictions, but who strangely never seem to see the big events coming? Or do you listen to people who are actually analysing the big picture independently and trying to work out macro-directions? They will often be wrong, but it will be people like that who spot the game-changers, not the paid minions of the bank.

Oh and any Bears who parrot SK predictions as "truth" are even worse. I haven't seen many do that though.

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Trojan
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davel
21 Oct 2011, 12:43 PM
See SK is an academic - his job is to attempt to boil the world down into an econometric model so that precise calculations of what will happen can be made. The sheer impossibility and hubris of this is not important, his job is to attempt to advance knowledge in this way. All academics get hot for their pet theories and many will defend them by making rash statements, because they are trying to change the mainstream of opinion about a certain issue, which requires you to shout loud and take extreme positions or just be ignored.

Even if you present it rationally "my model suggests that house prices could drop as much as 40% over time" becomes "Professor says houses prices will crash 40%!!!!".

OTOH the job of mainstream economic analysts e.g. Bloxham, Evans, Savanth, James is to make predictions which are not too divergent from each other as none wants to stand out as having got it wrong. If they all get it wrong, thats fine because thats to be expected. In addition, their analysis has to fit well with what their business strategies are. So it doesnt make a lot of sense for them to trash a particular asset class or whatever, when another part of their business is trying to sell people that product. Therefore, they will make nice cooing noises and be on the cautious side of careful, but with a bullish slant because ultimately their bosses dont make any money if everyone gets all pessimistic. There is absolutely no incentive for these people to identify potential problems, and so they dont for the most part.

There are some free-thinking big-bank analysts around, but they tend to be in short supply.

So the point is, do you listen to the people with a vested interest in a given outcome who all parrot the same line, and all get it somewhat right with their very cautious predictions, but who strangely never seem to see the big events coming? Or do you listen to people who are actually analysing the big picture independently and trying to work out macro-directions? They will often be wrong, but it will be people like that who spot the game-changers, not the paid minions of the bank.

Oh and any Bears who parrot SK predictions as "truth" are even worse. I haven't seen many do that though.
I can see your point.

As to who I listen to, the answer is pretty much I make up my own mind.
In fact, I will go as far as saying majority of people on this forum makes up their own mind (hey thats why we are here instead of reading MSM headlines)
The mere fact I'm reading here instead of say Somersoft pretty much shows I am open minded to hearing both sides of the story.

The problem is that most of the people who actually say something worthwhile on this forum has been classified a bull (think Ak4, b_b, etc). You are one of the rare bears here who I find says things which isn't just dribble.
If anything I wish this forum had more bears who present a good case for what they say. I would even go as far as to say I wish Steve Keen posted on this forum as he at least does quality research.
Its a shame that so many bear posts on this forum is just whinging and making up rubbish to pass off as fact.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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