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Steve Keen: Australian house prices to fall 20% "peak to trough" by end of 2013; House price hit yet to come
Topic Started: 20 Oct 2011, 12:43 PM (18,385 Views)
mel
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God bless Steve Keen and anyone like him. Steve is incredibly gifted - he is also someone who appears to be a genuine human being.
His problem is the quality of data he has to work with while creating a future projection. How could he possibly speculate:
-What interest rates will be in two years time
-What the level of unemployment will be
-What the world economy will be doing overall
-What the RBA and government will be doing
-What / how the local market will react to said events.

Regardless of how intelligent someone may be any slight single stuff up in calculation/speculation will always throw the entire end result out of whack.
Love your efforts Steve - but something is going to f&*k you almost every time.
Edited by mel, 15 Sep 2012, 12:16 AM.
APF - a place where serious people don't take themselves too seriously. There's nothing else like it.
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NotFooled
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The Bear Whisperer

timmy
14 Sep 2012, 01:03 AM
what is nit picking about that? golly made a claim that strindy has produced data for to prove him wrong. he was civil about it unlike most of the bears.
I realize this might be a crime punishable by stoning in bear circles.
Backing up an argument with facts is a crime over at MacroBusiness and will get you excommunicated.
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earthsta
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Shadow
13 Sep 2012, 08:02 PM
earthsta
13 Sep 2012, 07:38 PM
If interest rates averaged 8.74% for the last 53 years, I'm fairly sure we can make an extrapolation that the 100 year average would be close to that
No you can't just 'extrapolate' average post-1960 rates into the pre-1960 period. Rates were much lower prior to 1960.

Who gives a fuck what they were pre '60

Bottom line, for the last 60 years (since mrtgage rates records were kept), the average has been 8.74%

Current mortgage interest rates are below average. Expect a reversion to the mean. Expect house prices to continue falling. Expect yourself to go further underwater. Expect youe $1m Sydney house price prediction to be vacuous.
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

earthsta
15 Sep 2012, 02:34 PM
Who gives a fuck what they were pre '60

Bottom line, for the last 60 years (since mrtgage rates records were kept), the average has been 8.74%

Current mortgage interest rates are below average. Expect a reversion to the mean. Expect house prices to continue falling. Expect yourself to go further underwater. Expect youe $1m Sydney house price prediction to be vacuous.
haha, why would rates go up if houses prices fall. if housing prices fall the RBA will NEED to lower rates to stimulate economy.
pick one or the other genius, anything else is pure bear porn
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

earthsta
15 Sep 2012, 02:34 PM
Who gives a fuck what they were pre '60
Golly, myself, and Strindberg. Our discussion began after Golly said...

'Average interest rates in Australia have run at about 8.5% over a century'

If you're not interested, perhaps you should butt out, and stop making a fool of yourself?
Edited by Shadow, 15 Sep 2012, 02:47 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Pig Iron
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Bogan scum

Shadow
15 Sep 2012, 02:46 PM
Golly, myself, and Strindberg. Our discussion began after Golly said...

'Average interest rates in Australia have run at about 8.5% over a century'

If you're not interested, perhaps you should butt out, and stop making a fool of yourself?
shadow mate save your breath, it's clear they don't like to be proven wrong hence the retreat to a time frame that suits them.
I am the love child of Tony Abbott and Pauline Hanson
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newjez
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timmy
15 Sep 2012, 02:38 PM
haha, why would rates go up if houses prices fall. if housing prices fall the RBA will NEED to lower rates to stimulate economy.
pick one or the other genius, anything else is pure bear porn
I have to agree with timmy here. There is no underlying force that will automatically move interest rates back to some perceived mean value. Interest rates are where we are because we are where we are. If the economic position changes - rates may change. But I doubt anyone can forsee them moving up in the short to medium term.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Strindberg
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Quote:
 
Steve Keen: Australian house prices to fall 20% "peak to trough" by end of 2013; House price hit yet to come


Steve Keen now has 3 months left for his revised prediction of a 20% "peak to trough" fall from October 2011 to end of 2013.

To get that 20% fall from Oct 2011 he now needs a fall of 25% over the next 3 months.

It's notable that Steve Keen makes his major doom house price predictions when house prices are in a trough. During the Q4/ 2008 trough he predicted a 40% fall (which was followed by a 20% boom). During the Q4/2011 trough he predicted a 20% fall within 2 years which has so far turned out to be a 5-6% rise.

It seems Keen's doom predictions are very accurate at indicating imminent house price rises.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

dave289
22 Oct 2011, 10:17 AM
our economy is going backwards and so is the housing market

prices have been propped up further so now have much further to fall

we are now back to where we were , a dying economy and house market to go with it , with no more laxatives in sight

The bubble has now bursted ,well and truly ,with prices now dropping in EVERY CAPITAL CITY IN AUSTRLIA
Ted, please explain why we should believe you now, when you have been getting it so badly wrong since 2011?

In 2011 you said the bubble has now 'bursted' ... yet here we are in 2014 and Sydney house prices are up another 30% since 2011.

Where is the big crash you promised us? Where is the $5000 gold you promised us?
Edited by Shadow, 24 Oct 2014, 08:20 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Glenn Stevens
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Shadow
24 Oct 2014, 07:59 AM
Ted, would you like you explain why we should believe you now, when you have been getting it so badly wrong since 2011?

In 2011 you said the bubble has now 'bursted' ... yet here we are in 2014 and Sydney house prices are up another 30% since 2011.

Where is the big crash you promised us? Where is the $5000 gold you promised us?
Silly bears like Ted underestimated the power of the RBA and our ability to stimulate the residential property market. When I recognised in 2012 that the mining investment boom was nearing its peak, the RBA decided that it was time to pass the baton over to housing. I embarked on a carefully calibrated string of rate cuts to ensure a smooth transition, from mining to housing, and I'd say I've been reasonably successful to date. The 30% increase in Sydney house prices since 2011 is testament to the RBA's economic strategy.
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