Frankly I think the falls in Perth and Brisbane are just about over. Still some way to go in tourist areas like the Gold Coast, but they won't be far off, and they have seen 30% to 40% falls, which for the uninitiated is not that unusual for the Gold Coast.
A very bold prediction.
I'll keep this on file and we can have a laugh about it in the years ahead.
This article demonstrates what we all know - that people are very reluctant to sell something for what they thing it's worth. If they thought, or in fact if their house used to be worth $50000 more than it is today, people will do everything they can to avoid admitting to that loss, even if they have made massive gains in the past. Until such time of course when they are forced to sell - this is when you will see a crash. Only when owners are under distress and there is no white knight in sight.
I do think it interesting to hear the words 'wait and see' from the bulls on this forum. There has been a definate change of tune there. Keep humming guys.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
I guess it's possible that we're just about on bottom now.
However, I think there are a lot of people who pecieve the bottom to be a trampoline mat, which prices will hit and then immediately bounce to the stratosphere. This seems highly unlikely to me. Housing is jut too expensive for any sustained return to 10%+ growth per annum.
I still see a very long, slow wind down over a period of years, with upsurges springing up then dying down again along the way - just like we've been watching for over a year now.
Frankly I think the falls in Perth and Brisbane are just about over. Still some way to go in tourist areas like the Gold Coast, but they won't be far off, and they have seen 30% to 40% falls, which for the uninitiated is not that unusual for the Gold Coast.
I guess grabbing a sensationalist headline helps you restore some confidence in your inner beliefs, but in the end it's the market that will determine where it will go.
We will all have to wait and see.
and then what do you expect Peter?
given the pent up supply that is building by vendors taking their properties off the market, or never listing, i would expect a period of flat or bumpy prices. however if the pent up supply is from up graders then it comes with a roughly equal pent up demand.
Frankly I think the falls in Perth and Brisbane are just about over. Still some way to go in tourist areas like the Gold Coast, but they won't be far off, and they have seen 30% to 40% falls, which for the uninitiated is not that unusual for the Gold Coast.
A very bold prediction.
I'll keep this on file and we can have a laugh about it in the years ahead.
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