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ABS 6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, Aug 2011; Jobless rate jumps to 5.3% in August, up from 5.1%
Topic Started: 8 Sep 2011, 12:44 PM (2,652 Views)
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ABS Data: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0/

Employed Persons
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Unemployment Rate
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AUGUST KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

Employment increased to 11,439,900.
Unemployment increased to 620,300.
Unemployment rate steady at 5.1% from a revised July 2011 rate.
Participation rate at 65.6%.
Aggregate monthly hours worked increased to 1,622.4 million hours.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

Employment decreased 9,700 (0.1%) to 11,432,600. A decrease in full-time employment of 12,600 to 8,034,900 was offset by an increase in part-time employment of 2,900 to 3,397,600.
Unemployment increased 18,400 (3.0%) to 636,800. The number of persons looking for full-time work increased 24,500 to 458,900 and the number of persons looking for part-time work decreased 6,100 to 177,900.
The unemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to 5.3%. The male unemployment rate increased 0.3 pts to 5.3% and the female unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pts to 5.3%.
The participation rate remained steady at 65.6%.
Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 4.6 million hours to 1,626.8 million hours.

LABOUR UNDERUTILISATION (QUARTERLY CHANGE)

Trend estimates: Labour Force underutilisation rate increased 0.1 pts to 12.2%
Seasonally adjusted estimates: Labour Force underutilisation rate increased 0.1 pts to 12.3%. The male labour force underutilisation rate increased 0.3 pts to 10.5 % and the female labour underutilisation rate decreased 0.1 pts to 14.5 %.
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http://www.smh.com.au/business/jobless-rate-jumps-in-august-20110908-1jyp4.html

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Jobless rate jumps in August

Chris Zappone

September 8, 2011 - 11:33AM

The unemployment rate rose in August to 5.3 per cent, up from 5.1 per cent a month earlier, pushing the jobless rate to a 10-month high, according to figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The economy shed 12,600 full-time jobs last month, adding to the upwardly revised loss of 26,400 full-time jobs in July. Employers added 2900 part-time jobs last month, less than the revised 22,300 such positions added in July.

The Australian dollar lost half a US cent to $US1.0583 on the news as investors raised their bets the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates next month.

The participation rate - the share of the population available to work - remained steady at 65.6 per cent, while total employment stood at 11.43 million.

Economists expected the economy to add 10,000 new jobs in August and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 5.1 per cent, according to a Bloomberg survey.

But for Macquarie senior economist Brian Redican, the rise in the jobless rate was "certainly was a surprise" and occurring more quickly than anticipated.

‘‘It was much weaker, losing the full time jobs, and quite a substantial rise in the unemployment rate again after a similar outcome in the previous month,’’ he said.

Mr Redican said the number was taken before the financial market volatility erupted early in August because the hiring and layoff decisions would have been made mainly in July.

‘‘It definitely doesn’t appear to be working to the RBA's script,’’ he said.

‘‘With the unemployment rate rising, it suggest growth is below trend," he said. Mr Redican noted that today’s job data may prompt the RBA to reconsider its interest rate setting.

State by state

The jobless rate spiked to 6.2 per cent in Queensland in August from 5.7 per cent in July, seasonally adjusted. In Western Australia, it jumped to 4.4 per cent in August from 4 per cent in July.

In New South Wales, joblessness ticked up to 5.4 per cent from 5.3 per cent in that time, while in Victoria it held flat at 5.1 per cent over the two months, the ABS said.

In Tasmania, unemployment rose to 5.2 per cent from 5.1 per cent, while in South Australia, the jobless rate eased lower to 5.1 per cent in August from 5.2 per cent in July

JP Morgan economist Helen Kevans said the volatility seen in financial markets appears to have weighed on corporate confidence.

‘‘So with confidence falling back, it’s not surpising firms have wound back their hiring intentions and we’re likely to see more of that over the next few months,’’ she said.
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http://christopherjoye.blogspot.com/2011/09/unemployment-survey-rises-to-53-only.html

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Unemployment survey rises to 5.3%: only 600 net new jobs created in last 3 months

The ABS unemployment survey, which is more timely but far less comprehensive than the GDP data, suggests the structural adjustments taking place across the economy are tracking the RBA's plan. In the last 3 months, only 600 net new jobs have been created (ie, jobs growth has been flat). In the last six months, only 21,500 jobs have been generated, or around 3,600 per month. The overall unemployment rate has risen a nontrivial 0.4 percentage points from its nadir around 4.9% to 5.3% today (see chart).

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The RBA and Treasury believe that an unemployment rate less than 5% starts generating wage and inflation pressures, assuming healthy productivity (lower productivity means inflation pressures can arrive earlier). The RBA has said that it is explicitly "trying to make room" in the non-mining economy for the boom that we are seeing in the private investment data.

So we can conclude from this ABS survey that the RBA's monetary policy settings in concert with the high currency are indeed doing their job by exerting a mild degree of restraint across the economy. Of course, as the RBA has flagged in recent weeks, we can still have high inflation in a weaker growth environment (notwithstanding that the Q2 GDP accounts tell us that growth is solid).

Recall that, in the RBA's own words, it is a "inflation-targeting central bank". The Governor's recently stated that the RBA's job is to "preserve the value of money" by achieving an an inflation rate of 2–3 per cent, on average, over the cycle. If the RBA does this, it believes that it can help contribute to maximising the sustainable rate of growth and employment over the long-run.

The Governor made it very clear that the RBA does not target employment or growth, since in the short-run these goals conflict with low inflation. A rising rate of unemployment will help the RBA achieve its inflation objectives assuming that productivity improves.

Based on core inflation measured by the ABS in Q1 and Q2, the RBA is not currently meeting its inflation target. So we wait to see the results of the fresh inflation data for Q3 released by the ABS in late October.

If it prints high again, rates will go up. If, on the other hand, it is benign, rates may not rise. The best outcome for all Australians is, self-evidently, low inflation, low interest rates, and sustainable growth.
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Coolum
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The majority of our workforce is in services, manufacturing has been shrinking and our main activity is mining at the present time.

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zaph
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suggests the structural adjustments taking place across the economy


what are the structural adjustments taking place across the economy???
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Perthite
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Labour market has turned...
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zaph
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Perthite
8 Sep 2011, 05:09 PM
Labour market has turned...
we are still very close to full employment
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Perthite
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WA and QLD basically took the losses. It was very localised and really only significant in these states. How ironic... mining boom turns out to be mining shroom.
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newjez
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8 Sep 2011, 08:34 PM
WA and QLD basically took the losses. It was very localised and really only significant in these states. How ironic... mining boom turns out to be mining shroom.
There are real indications that things are slowing in Asia - but there are also strong indications that they are not. It's a very confused picture, and it will take some time to become clear. I also don't have absolute faith in much of the data coming from Asian countries. They have much greater control over the data than we do in the West. I do wonder how many of the fugures we are seeing have been masaged.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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I dont however expect unemployment to rise very far. A lot of retirees have put off their retirement as the sharemarket really hammered their super. They will have to leave the workforce eventually.
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