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Our house is up for auction tomorrow!; Anyone want to guess how the market has performed in the last 5 years?
Topic Started: 26 Aug 2011, 12:44 PM (18,709 Views)
Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

hoofarted
27 Aug 2011, 08:10 PM


So Shadow... About that "babies create demand" that you were talking about... Does this mean that the "demand" is optional? Does this mean that the "demand" is not tangible or quantifiable so therefore just theory? Sorry mate but your argument is a loss. :banned:
Not at all. Demand is demand. The question is whether one realises the demand immediately, or waits (pent up demand).

In Trojan's case he has decided the wait - the demand is still there, but not realised yet.

In my case (this was a few years ago), I realised the demand and bought a larger home.

Either way, babies create demand.
Edited by Shadow, 27 Aug 2011, 09:23 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Trojan
27 Aug 2011, 07:50 PM
Still deciding what to do but at this stage, looks like we will pull the property from sale because we are not anxious to sell.
Kids don't need their individual rooms yet at this age so we will delay building our dream home until the market picks up and we can sell this house for more.
Sydney is pretty flat at the moment, but it's still the strongest of all the cities.

When interest rates drop later in the year (I expect October), then Sydney will take off again.

Due to the fact that interest rates are no longer expected to rise, I think we'll see a rising Sydney median for Q3 and Q4.
Edited by Shadow, 27 Aug 2011, 09:28 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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mugshot
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Sorry, but Sydney is falling with the rest of them.....

http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/capital-city-markets-feel-the-frosty-winter-chill-20110826-1jcy6.html

Quote:
 
Capital city markets feel the frosty winter chill

Dr Andrew Wilson

August 27, 2011

The Sydney median house price weakened during the July quarter, according to the latest Australian Property Monitors data.

All other Australian capital city housing markets recorded falls in median house prices during the period.

This indicates the continuance of the subdued buyer activity evident in most markets so far this year.

Perth recorded the largest fall in house prices during the quarter, down by 2.7 per cent, followed by Brisbane, down 2.1 per cent, and Darwin and Adelaide, which both fell by 1.9 per cent.

Melbourne and Sydney again proved to be the most resilient of the state capitals, with the Melbourne median falling by just 0.9 per cent and Sydney's down by 1.1 per cent during the July quarter.
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Sydneyite
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earthsta
27 Aug 2011, 08:20 PM
Should have accepted the offer.

You'll be chasing the market down from here on
Yea like he has been since 2006...... you know nothing about the Sydney market Earthsta!
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Trojan
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earthsta
27 Aug 2011, 08:20 PM
Should have accepted the offer.

You'll be chasing the market down from here on
Maybe, maybe not.
But no one here knows for certain.

When I bought in 2006, there were people who were telling me the market was going down from there because of the 2000-2004 price rises.
No one could say for certain what would happen then and no one could say for certain what will happen now.

p.s. I don't feel we are chasing the market. If the market continues to go down from here, we are prepared to hold for many years.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Trojan
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NotFooled
27 Aug 2011, 08:40 PM
Strangely I find myself agreeing somewhat with earsta. While I doubt the market will fall in any significant way, it may be better to accept the offer and bank the cash (or pay off debt). Sellers have to consider very carefully the opportunity cost in a flat market.
Similar to my response to earthsta's post, maybe, maybe not but no one has a crystal ball.
If we were afraid of debt, we would never have borrowed money to buy our home in the first place.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Trojan
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Simon the likeable
27 Aug 2011, 08:50 PM
With respect, have you considered the possibility that a pick up in the market could be a long way off, with a significant decline in the meantime ?
Thank you ... at least you are polite and don't speak as if a crash is a "done deal"

Yes I have considered the possibility that house prices could rise, fall or stagnate.
My wage income and the rent I would be collecting from the new place would enable me to comfortably to hold both properties for a very long time.
Of course some people will point out I could lose my job.
But if I was petrified of losing my job, I wouldn't have borrowed money to purchase my home in 2006 either.
Calculated risk at the end of the day.

I may accidentally come out of this better off or accidentally come out of this worse off - but that is life.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Trojan
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raveswei
27 Aug 2011, 09:00 PM
entering a new global depression with two mortgages and falling market sounds very risky to me.

I think you should reconsider offers and let one more "generation" of greater fools to pick up at least half of the tab.
.
Not really worth replying to other than saying the only fool is the person who thinks they can predict the future as if its a certainty.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Trojan
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Shadow
27 Aug 2011, 09:25 PM
Sydney is pretty flat at the moment, but it's still the strongest of all the cities.

When interest rates drop later in the year (I expect October), then Sydney will take off again.

Due to the fact that interest rates are no longer expected to rise, I think we'll see a rising Sydney median for Q3 and Q4.
I agree with you that Sydney is flat but it is the strongest out of all the capital cities.
I don't know if they will take off soon but i can't see it crashing either.
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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Simon the likeable
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Trojan
27 Aug 2011, 10:17 PM
Yes I have considered the possibility that house prices could rise, fall or stagnate.
My wage income and the rent I would be collecting from the new place would enable me to comfortably to hold both properties for a very long time.
Of course some people will point out I could lose my job.
But if I was petrified of losing my job, I wouldn't have borrowed money to purchase my home in 2006 either.
Calculated risk at the end of the day.

I may accidentally come out of this better off or accidentally come out of this worse off - but that is life.
Good attitude, it's a bet either way. Sounds like you've thought it through and are prepared for all potential outcomes.

I don't envy you at the moment, I've always found the buying/selling thing extremely stressful. Hope it turns out well for you and the family, whatever happens.
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