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Sydney Construction Boom Nearly Here; Construction growth of 15% is forecast in NSW over next two years
Topic Started: 8 Aug 2011, 12:56 PM (51,187 Views)
Rastus2
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 12:15 AM
No need to guess - it can be calculated.

As I said to Earthsta (though he seems to be having difficulty with the calculations) an average of 10% per annum for the next four years would do it.

Current Sydney median house price is approx $660K. An average of 10% per annum in 2012, 13, 14 and 15 would take it to $966K.


oic,

so 966k is near enough to your 1M mark ?

I guess 'approaching 1M' could also be 800k... or even 700k .. lol


Sorry, since you pick keen's predictions up on any error margin at all, yours will be a FAIL unless they hit 1M by 2015 (ie. before 2015).

best of luck with your high standards... it's a bitch when they are demanded of you instead of by you isn't it ? :popcorn:
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 12:20 AM
so 966k is near enough to your 1M mark ?

I guess 'approaching 1M' could also be 800k... or even 700k .. lol

Sorry, since you pick keen's predictions up on any error margin at all, yours will be a FAIL unless they hit 1M by 2015 (ie. before 2015).

best of luck with your high standards... it's a bitch when they are demanded of you instead of by you isn't it ? :popcorn:
Sydney house prices will not hit $1M before 2015, and I have never claimed they will.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 12:22 AM
Sydney house prices will not hit $1M before 2015, and I have never claimed they will.
lol.. here we go....


so are you telling me that if you tell someone you will meet them by 10 o'clock, you actually mean somewhere between 10 and 11 o'clock ?


If someone tells me that something wil happen by 2015, that means on the 1st of the 1st of 2015, it will have happened.


Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rastus2
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 12:22 AM
Sydney house prices will not hit $1M before 2015, and I have never claimed they will.


actually, your prediction has changed a bit over the year(s).

It started :

Shadow, on Mar 31 2010, 01:21 AM, said:
Your argument is a bit strange - you seem to be saying that if there was room for 'massive growth' then it would have all happened in one year. You think that the fact that growth was only a 'measly' 12% last year somehow proves that there was no room for 'massive growth' over a longer period of time. Why would you assume that 'massive growth' can only happen either in one year, or not at all?

If 12% is measly growth, then why is it so hard for you to believe that the Sydney median will approach $1M by 2015. That only requires 9% per annum growth, even more measly than the 12% we had this year! If you don't believe $1M is possible, then consider that Sydney prices need to increase significantly (from here) just to get them back to their 2003 'affordability ceiling', assuming incomes don't rise. Now, on top of that consider that disposable incomes will most likely also be increasing during that time. If you look at it that way, a $1M median house price by 2015 wouldn't be much different, in terms of affordability, to the median house price in 2003.
------------------------------------------------------------------



No mention of June at all..


Then shortly after:



To keep clogwog happy, lets put a figure and date on it... $975K by June 2015 (currently we're at $634K according to Residex).

That will be an average of 9% per annum growth from here.

If I was BearTrap I'd 111% guarantee it.

***********************************************



So you threw in 6 months extra and took of 25k....



Now it's been discounted to $966K and you have also given yourself yet another 6 months.



Lol... revision of history multiple times... nice predictions verision 1, 2 and 3.
Edited by Rastus2, 2 Feb 2012, 12:41 AM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 12:40 AM
To keep clogwog happy, lets put a figure and date on it... $975K by June 2015 (currently we're at $634K according to Residex).
That was just an example to keep Clogwog happy.

My usual statement is 'approach $1M by 2015' which means it will get close to but not exceed $1M sometime by the end of some month in 2015.
Edited by Shadow, 2 Feb 2012, 07:49 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 07:49 AM
That was just an example to keep Clogwog happy.

My usual statement is 'approach $1M by 2015' which means it will get close to but not exceed $1M sometime by the end of some month in 2015.

Yes, shifting sands... that what I said.
3 Different versions of what you predicted as time went on.

I'm sure your prediction will keep evolving, but the one I read was the first... you could probably claim it was the 2nd, but now you want to keep evolving it like Darwin on steroids.

So answer me this...

If you tell someone you will meet them by 10 O'clock, do you mean between 10.01 and 10.59 ?

If you say approaching 1M then fine, but you stated a specific amount 'to keep cod happy'... that is the amount you predicted.


Honestly, how you can dare criticize anyone else's predictions when yours are so rubbery is a joke.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 07:59 AM
Honestly, how you can dare criticize anyone else's predictions when yours are so rubbery is a joke.
I always say 'approach' $1M by 2015 (exact day in 2015 never specified) because that is the right way to make predictions. It would be pretty silly to try to predict an exact price and exact day six years in advance. Call it 'rubbery' if you like, but that's the prediction. I often give a range of values when making predictions, and I think that's the best way to do it.

I don't criticise anyone else's predictions until those predictions are proved wrong. For example, I didn't criticise Steve Keen's predictions below until after the given date had clearly passed. When the date of my own predictions has passed I will be happy to accept criticism and accept I was wrong if that is the case, in the same way I accept my prediction for 2011 Sydney house prices was wrong. Like I've said before, I make a lot of predictions, and as such I do get 10-20% of them wrong.

Steve Keen's bad calls and predictions

1 - In 2006, Keen said we may already be in a recession
2 - In 2006, Keen said the Australian Debt/GDP ratio would exceed 160% by 2007
3 - In 2006, Keen said Australia will be in recession long before our Debt/GDP ratio falls
4 - In 2008, Keen said interest rates would be at 2% by 2009, and ZIRP by 2010
5 - In 2008, Keen said we would have double digit unemployment (up to 20%)
6 - In 2008, Keen said we would have a severe recession, possibly a depression
7 - In 2008, Keen said house prices would be down 40% within 'a few years'
8 - In 2008, Keen famously made a doomed house price bet with Rory Robertson
9 - in 2008, Keen sold his Sydney home at a cyclical low point, just before prices rose 20%
Edited by Shadow, 2 Feb 2012, 08:13 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 08:13 AM
I always say 'approach' $1M by 2015 (exact day in 2015 never specified) because that is the right way to make predictions. It would be pretty silly to try to predict an exact price and exact day six years in advance. Call it 'rubbery' if you like, but that's the prediction. I often give a range of values when making predictions, and I think that's the best way to do it.

I don't criticise anyone else's predictions until those predictions are proved wrong. For example, I didn't criticise Steve Keen's predictions below until after the given date had clearly passed. When the date of my own predictions has passed I will be happy to accept criticism and accept I was wrong if that is the case, in the same way I accept my prediction for 2011 Sydney house prices was wrong. Like I've said before, I make a lot of predictions, and as such I do get 10-20% of them wrong.

Steve Keen's bad calls and predictions

1 - In 2006, Keen said we may already be in a recession
2 - In 2006, Keen said the Australian Debt/GDP ratio would exceed 160% by 2007
3 - In 2006, Keen said Australia will be in recession long before our Debt/GDP ratio falls
4 - In 2008, Keen said interest rates would be at 2% by 2009, and ZIRP by 2010
5 - In 2008, Keen said we would have double digit unemployment (up to 20%)
6 - In 2008, Keen said we would have a severe recession, possibly a depression
7 - In 2008, Keen said house prices would be down 40% within 'a few years'
8 - In 2008, Keen famously made a doomed house price bet with Rory Robertson
9 - in 2008, Keen sold his Sydney home at a cyclical low point, just before prices rose 20%

lol.. you still seem to not grasp what 'by a year' means.

your original claim was 'by 2015'... that means by the time that year starts, not 1/2 way through, not by the end of it, but rather, by the 1/1/2015.
your original claims was 975k...


If you now want to back away from that then fine.

That is 1 failed prediciton.

Your 2nd claim was by June 2015
for the total of $975

if you now want to back away from that then fine.

2 failed predictions.


Your latest version is some time in 2015 (by 2016) and a smaller amount of $966k (I believe).

This is your 3rd prediction after 2 fails.

Nice to have such a high bar eh ?

btw.. if you actually read keen's comments closer he warned we might have for a lot of those misquotes you cite... yet again you pick at straws to bring him down but clutch at straws to build yourself up.
Keen also was (as I understand it) not selling his house primarily because of the fall he expected likely... didn't he go through a divorce ? any chance he had to sell it because of that ?
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
2 Feb 2012, 08:38 AM
your original claim was 'by 2015'
My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015 (by which day in 2015 was never specified). Currently this requires average growth of approximately 10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. This refers to the Residex index, freestanding houses, currently at approx $660K.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rastus2
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Shadow
2 Feb 2012, 08:49 AM
My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015 (by which day in 2015 was never specified). Currently this requires average growth of approximately 10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. This refers to the Residex index, freestanding houses, currently at approx $660K.


lol, no it has not, it has changed 3 times.


Don't get your panties in a twist shadow.

it does not matter how many times you keep repeating your claim, it does not make it a fact


I have shown quotes with dates of 3 version of your prediction...

You keep modifying your prediction, but oddly, history does not actually change in the real world.


oh, and 'by' a time or date means it will be done 'by' that date, not sometime after that date/time has already been hit.
For someone who claims to be so careful in what they post I would have thought you would use your words more carefully for a prediction. I think you are just squirming.

I thought you had a good grasp of English shadow.




Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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