Sydney house prices will not hit $1M before 2015, and I have never claimed they will.
actually, your prediction has changed a bit over the year(s).
It started :
Shadow, on Mar 31 2010, 01:21 AM, said: Your argument is a bit strange - you seem to be saying that if there was room for 'massive growth' then it would have all happened in one year. You think that the fact that growth was only a 'measly' 12% last year somehow proves that there was no room for 'massive growth' over a longer period of time. Why would you assume that 'massive growth' can only happen either in one year, or not at all?
If 12% is measly growth, then why is it so hard for you to believe that the Sydney median will approach $1M by 2015. That only requires 9% per annum growth, even more measly than the 12% we had this year! If you don't believe $1M is possible, then consider that Sydney prices need to increase significantly (from here) just to get them back to their 2003 'affordability ceiling', assuming incomes don't rise. Now, on top of that consider that disposable incomes will most likely also be increasing during that time. If you look at it that way, a $1M median house price by 2015 wouldn't be much different, in terms of affordability, to the median house price in 2003. ------------------------------------------------------------------
No mention of June at all..
Then shortly after:
To keep clogwog happy, lets put a figure and date on it... $975K by June 2015 (currently we're at $634K according to Residex).
That will be an average of 9% per annum growth from here.
If I was BearTrap I'd 111% guarantee it.
***********************************************
So you threw in 6 months extra and took of 25k....
Now it's been discounted to $966K and you have also given yourself yet another 6 months.
Lol... revision of history multiple times... nice predictions verision 1, 2 and 3.
My usual statement is 'approach $1M by 2015' which means it will get close to but not exceed $1M sometime by the end of some month in 2015.
Yes, shifting sands... that what I said. 3 Different versions of what you predicted as time went on.
I'm sure your prediction will keep evolving, but the one I read was the first... you could probably claim it was the 2nd, but now you want to keep evolving it like Darwin on steroids.
So answer me this...
If you tell someone you will meet them by 10 O'clock, do you mean between 10.01 and 10.59 ?
If you say approaching 1M then fine, but you stated a specific amount 'to keep cod happy'... that is the amount you predicted.
Honestly, how you can dare criticize anyone else's predictions when yours are so rubbery is a joke.
Honestly, how you can dare criticize anyone else's predictions when yours are so rubbery is a joke.
I always say 'approach' $1M by 2015 (exact day in 2015 never specified) because that is the right way to make predictions. It would be pretty silly to try to predict an exact price and exact day six years in advance. Call it 'rubbery' if you like, but that's the prediction. I often give a range of values when making predictions, and I think that's the best way to do it.
I don't criticise anyone else's predictions until those predictions are proved wrong. For example, I didn't criticise Steve Keen's predictions below until after the given date had clearly passed. When the date of my own predictions has passed I will be happy to accept criticism and accept I was wrong if that is the case, in the same way I accept my prediction for 2011 Sydney house prices was wrong. Like I've said before, I make a lot of predictions, and as such I do get 10-20% of them wrong.
Steve Keen's bad calls and predictions
1 - In 2006, Keen said we may already be in a recession 2 - In 2006, Keen said the Australian Debt/GDP ratio would exceed 160% by 2007 3 - In 2006, Keen said Australia will be in recession long before our Debt/GDP ratio falls 4 - In 2008, Keen said interest rates would be at 2% by 2009, and ZIRP by 2010 5 - In 2008, Keen said we would have double digit unemployment (up to 20%) 6 - In 2008, Keen said we would have a severe recession, possibly a depression 7 - In 2008, Keen said house prices would be down 40% within 'a few years' 8 - In 2008, Keen famously made a doomed house price bet with Rory Robertson 9 - in 2008, Keen sold his Sydney home at a cyclical low point, just before prices rose 20%
I always say 'approach' $1M by 2015 (exact day in 2015 never specified) because that is the right way to make predictions. It would be pretty silly to try to predict an exact price and exact day six years in advance. Call it 'rubbery' if you like, but that's the prediction. I often give a range of values when making predictions, and I think that's the best way to do it.
I don't criticise anyone else's predictions until those predictions are proved wrong. For example, I didn't criticise Steve Keen's predictions below until after the given date had clearly passed. When the date of my own predictions has passed I will be happy to accept criticism and accept I was wrong if that is the case, in the same way I accept my prediction for 2011 Sydney house prices was wrong. Like I've said before, I make a lot of predictions, and as such I do get 10-20% of them wrong.
Steve Keen's bad calls and predictions
1 - In 2006, Keen said we may already be in a recession 2 - In 2006, Keen said the Australian Debt/GDP ratio would exceed 160% by 2007 3 - In 2006, Keen said Australia will be in recession long before our Debt/GDP ratio falls 4 - In 2008, Keen said interest rates would be at 2% by 2009, and ZIRP by 2010 5 - In 2008, Keen said we would have double digit unemployment (up to 20%) 6 - In 2008, Keen said we would have a severe recession, possibly a depression 7 - In 2008, Keen said house prices would be down 40% within 'a few years' 8 - In 2008, Keen famously made a doomed house price bet with Rory Robertson 9 - in 2008, Keen sold his Sydney home at a cyclical low point, just before prices rose 20%
lol.. you still seem to not grasp what 'by a year' means.
your original claim was 'by 2015'... that means by the time that year starts, not 1/2 way through, not by the end of it, but rather, by the 1/1/2015. your original claims was 975k...
If you now want to back away from that then fine.
That is 1 failed prediciton.
Your 2nd claim was by June 2015 for the total of $975
if you now want to back away from that then fine.
2 failed predictions.
Your latest version is some time in 2015 (by 2016) and a smaller amount of $966k (I believe).
This is your 3rd prediction after 2 fails.
Nice to have such a high bar eh ?
btw.. if you actually read keen's comments closer he warned we might have for a lot of those misquotes you cite... yet again you pick at straws to bring him down but clutch at straws to build yourself up. Keen also was (as I understand it) not selling his house primarily because of the fall he expected likely... didn't he go through a divorce ? any chance he had to sell it because of that ?
My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015 (by which day in 2015 was never specified). Currently this requires average growth of approximately 10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. This refers to the Residex index, freestanding houses, currently at approx $660K.
My prediction has always been that Sydney house prices will approach $1M by 2015 (by which day in 2015 was never specified). Currently this requires average growth of approximately 10% per annum during 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. This refers to the Residex index, freestanding houses, currently at approx $660K.
lol, no it has not, it has changed 3 times.
Don't get your panties in a twist shadow.
it does not matter how many times you keep repeating your claim, it does not make it a fact
I have shown quotes with dates of 3 version of your prediction...
You keep modifying your prediction, but oddly, history does not actually change in the real world.
oh, and 'by' a time or date means it will be done 'by' that date, not sometime after that date/time has already been hit. For someone who claims to be so careful in what they post I would have thought you would use your words more carefully for a prediction. I think you are just squirming.
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