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Sydney Construction Boom Nearly Here; Construction growth of 15% is forecast in NSW over next two years
Topic Started: 8 Aug 2011, 12:56 PM (51,188 Views)
raveswei
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credit is still very loose - almost the loosest it could be

... still prices are down big time ...

reason? people already carry huge debt, they cannot afford more debt even when bankers offer money to everyone ...

debt saturation of this scale (levels never recorded before) must lead to greatest recession that we remember
Edited by raveswei, 1 Feb 2012, 09:42 PM.
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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stinkbug
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raveswei
1 Feb 2012, 09:41 PM

reason? people already carry huge debt, they cannot afford more debt even when bankers offer money to everyone ...

debt saturation of this scale (levels never recorded before) must lead to greatest recession that we remember
Debt saturation is an interesting point. To my mind, inflation is potentially the saviour of the borrower, but it takes a long time to work. The issue for many will be whether they can hold on until prices and incomes increase. If prices stagnate (or drop only a little) over the next few years, then the likelihood of a major crash gets much smaller.
---------------------------------------------------------------

While it's true that those who win never quit, and those who quit never win, those who never win and never quit are idiots.

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raveswei
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stinkbug
1 Feb 2012, 09:46 PM
Debt saturation is an interesting point. To my mind, inflation is potentially the saviour of the borrower, but it takes a long time to work. The issue for many will be whether they can hold on until prices and incomes increase. If prices stagnate (or drop only a little) over the next few years, then the likelihood of a major crash gets much smaller.
the problem is that inflation and debt are inversely correlated

for inflation to rise people (and businesses) must have extra money they can spend on rising prices - people with large debt do NOT have extra cash to spend on anything so inflation is just a dream

almost no government can print enough money to offset lack of newly created money by slowing commercial banks - deflationary spiral is almost inevitable

the only quick way out is debt forgiveness - unfortunately rich people (lenders) do not like that idea and they are the once who make decisions in "democratic" system of our presence


high inflation at this stage would just rise rates and crush many borrowers (and housing market) because they couldn't afford higher repayments. It is good to buy when inflation is high, it is not good inflation to rise when people already borrowed more than they can repay. it's too late


when I was telling my friend few years ago (2004-2005) that the best time to buy is when interest rates are high (not when rates are low) they were laughing on me - now they realize they will be stuck with large (relative to their income) repayments for next 10 or 20 years.

low rates enable people to borrow more, high rates enable people to repay quickly and easily
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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earthsta
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Shadow
31 Jan 2012, 11:14 PM
earthsta
31 Jan 2012, 11:10 PM
I think that it's great that Yossarian posted that blast from the past....now we can see how wrong you really are :lol:
Yeah... that 2009/2010 boom never really happened. It was all an illusion.
This IS a thread about Sydney. How's your prediction looking? Oh, that's right

Quote:
 


think prices will rise over the next 4-5 years, but not as far or fast as is shown on that chart. Sydney median house price to approach $1M by 2015 (based on Residex data) is my prediction. That would be approx 9% per annum for the next five years.


http://www.creditcrunch.co.uk/financial_crisis_topic/2832-australian-house-prices-start-the-40-60-price-slide/page__view__findpost__p__27349


What's the reality

From ABS

Quote:
 


Sydney -1.0 -2.7



:lol: :lol: :lol:

Keep this up and your employers wont be happy
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Shadow
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earthsta
1 Feb 2012, 10:43 PM
This IS a thread about Sydney. How's your prediction looking? Oh, that's right
Predictions are just a game to me - a bit of fun. I make lots of them, and while I get most right, I do get 10-20% of them wrong. As for the prediction you mentioned, we won't know the outcome until 2015. However I suspect by that time you'll still be renting, and my PPOR will be fully paid off (regardless of what direction house prices move in).

Anyway, this is Black Panther's day, so I don't want to steal his thunder by talking about my own 80-90% prediction success rate. The key news from today is that BP was 100% right with his Q3 tipping point call, and for that I congratulate him and proclaim BP as a prophet on this forum (second only to the mighty BearTrap).
Edited by Shadow, 1 Feb 2012, 10:56 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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earthsta
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Shadow
1 Feb 2012, 10:55 PM
Predictions are just a game to me - a bit of fun. I make lots of them, and while I get most right, I do get 10-20% of them wrong. As for the prediction you mentioned, we won't know the outcome until 2015.


Yes....and you'll now need Sydney house prices to rise in excess of 13% for the next three years for the prediction to be right. Good luck with that :lol:


Shadow
1 Feb 2012, 10:55 PM

However I suspect by that time you'll still be renting, and my PPOR will be fully paid off (regardless of what direction house prices move in).


What? You don't own your own home yet? LOL.... I could buy a PPOR tomorrow.

Shadow
1 Feb 2012, 10:55 PM


Anyway, this is Black Panther's day, so I don't want to steal his thunder by talking about my own 80-90% prediction success rate. The key news from today is that BP was 100% right with his Q3 tipping point call, and for that I congratulate him and proclaim BP as a prophet on this forum (second only to the mighty BearTrap).



No ... he was wrong. House prices were down in the 4th quarter. There's no need to take the piss out of blackie like that. He's already insecure.
Edited by earthsta, 1 Feb 2012, 11:03 PM.
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Shadow
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earthsta
1 Feb 2012, 10:57 PM
Yes....and you'll now need Sydney house prices to rise in excess of 13% for the next three years for the prediction to be right. Good luck with that :lol:
No... 10% for the next 4 years.

Quote:
 
What? You don't own your own home yet? LOL.... I could buy a PPOR tomorrow.
I own my home and several IPs.

You could probably afford a unit, or a smaller house in the outer suburbs. But you won't - you'll still be renting in 2015, holdout.

I'll have my 5 bedroom Northern Beaches home with ocean views five minutes walk from the beach fully paid off.

I could pay it off tomorrow and then some if I sold some IPs. But I'm going to keep them for the coming Sydney boom. :)

Quote:
 
No ... he was wrong.
BP was right. Prices up in Perth, and nationally Q3 was the quarter of peak decline - the tipping point.
Edited by Shadow, 1 Feb 2012, 11:16 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
1 Feb 2012, 10:55 PM
Predictions are just a game to me - a bit of fun. I make lots of them,

Predictions might be a game for you, but your area of interest is specifically Sydney.

based on your prediction 22 January 2010
Quote:
 

Sydney median house price to approach $1M by 2015 (based on Residex data) is my prediction. That would be approx 9% per annum for the next five years. It is currently $632,000 according to Residex.



What % do they need to increase per annum now to get your 1M mark by 2015 ?
Care to have a guess @ the maths ?

That boom has better actually grow legs ASAP.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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earthsta
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Shadow
1 Feb 2012, 11:12 PM
No... 10% for the next 4 years.


No, in excess of 13%. Your prediction was made TWO years ago. Wriggle, wriggle


Edited by earthsta, 2 Feb 2012, 12:07 AM.
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Shadow
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Rastus2
1 Feb 2012, 11:40 PM
What % do they need to increase per annum now to get your 1M mark by 2015 ?

Care to have a guess @ the maths ?
No need to guess - it can be calculated.

As I said to Earthsta (though he seems to be having difficulty with the calculations) an average of 10% per annum for the next four years would do it.

Current Sydney median house price is approx $660K. An average of 10% per annum in 2012, 13, 14 and 15 would take it to $966K.

1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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