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Sydney Construction Boom Nearly Here; Construction growth of 15% is forecast in NSW over next two years
Topic Started: 8 Aug 2011, 12:56 PM (51,190 Views)
Catweasel
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Shadow
30 Jan 2012, 10:45 AM
How original. Yawn.
And a copy and a paste of a media is a "original"? Goodness the grief. It would admit that an observe of a behave is the not a "original," but highly the neglected.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Catweasel
30 Jan 2012, 10:49 AM
some banal gibberish
:sleep:
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Catweasel
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Shadow
30 Jan 2012, 10:52 AM
:sleep:
Catweasel laugh. All the happy to jump into a sandpit with a Shadow and roll the around and get a dirty.
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earthsta
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Shadow
30 Jan 2012, 09:06 AM
One of the things I've been predicting for some time was that the new NSW government would implement policies to boost residential construction. I have already posted some evidence of this occurring last year, and here is the latest development...

LOL... sounds like another Kellyville Ridge. Miles from the CBD and no public transport :lol:
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Wisebear
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Shadow
8 Aug 2011, 12:56 PM
Here comes the Sydney construction boom I've been talking about for the past few years...


Yes, exactly as I forecast.

Expect to see more hoarded land unloaded onto the market or developed as property prices decline.
No point in doing anything else in a falling market but bad news for the bulls as it adds to supply and supports the downwards spiral.
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Voodoo
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http://www.realestate.com.au/property-apartment-nsw-glebe-108826926

Link above is an example of why construction booms increase prices, at least until an oversupply occurs. 3 bed unit in Mirvac's Harold Park Development will cost $1.475m.

Average 3 bed victorian terrace in Glebe costs $1 - $1.2m. I know which I'd prefer and I now know what they'll cost within the next few years. Same story with the Central Park development in Haymarket.

Both developments are selling well off plan and will drive growth in the established inner west market as a comparable product. The economic sale price is dictated by cost of land plus build cost plus cost of finance plus builder profit margin. The economic sale price per new unit appears higher than the market price of existing stock = upward pressure on prices.
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Wisebear
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Voodoo
30 Jan 2012, 09:55 PM
The economic sale price is dictated by cost of land plus build cost plus cost of finance plus builder profit margin. The economic sale price per new unit appears higher than the market price of existing stock = upward pressure on prices.
I disagree. The sale price is determined by what someone is willing to pay.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
30 Jan 2012, 09:06 AM
One of the things I've been predicting for some time was that the new NSW government would implement policies to boost residential construction. I have already posted some evidence of this occurring last year, and here is the latest development...


lol.. yeah, no chance of land owners and developers ripping off this system.


BTW you do know that Qld did a similar thing in 2010 don't you ?

http://www.news.com.au/money/property/three-new-model-cities-for-southeast-queensland/story-e6frfmd0-1225871381185
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Admin
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Quote:
 
Experts dispute benefits of fringe dwellings

By business reporter Michael Janda
Updated January 30, 2012 22:23:42

Economists and planning experts broadly agree that Australia has a housing shortage, but there is a lot of disagreement on how to address it.

The New South Wales Government has asked landowners to nominate sites they think would be suitable for new homes.

Forty-three have replied, mostly nominating land on Sydney's far south-west and north-west fringes.

The State Government is now evaluating which sites are viable.

Frank Stilwell is a professor of political economy at the University of Sydney who has written several books on urban policy.

He says the New South Wales Government's move to open up development sites outside its previously planned corridors defies decades of research on urban planning.

"If you're getting housing on those urban fringes, a long way away from the city with poor public transport, if any is locally available, then it means car dependency," he said.

"That of course is a strange policy to be pursuing at a time when we're trying to look for sustainability."
Audio: Urban experts doubtful about fringe benefits (PM)

He is not alone in this concern.

Angie Zigomanis from forecaster BIS Shrapnel says there is a national shortfall of about 100,000 to 150,000 dwellings.

She says appropriate infrastructure and employment opportunities are crucial before large housing estates are allowed to go ahead.

"If you're building on urban fringes or in those regional areas you need good transport networks between regional areas and the capital cities and also between the outer areas and central cities," she said.

"You also need sufficient employment in those areas as well so that people don't have to travel those vast distances to lose big parts of their days."
Limited options

Developer lobby group, the Urban Development Institute of Australia, agrees infrastructure is needed to coincide with new housing.

Its national president, Julie Katz, says the best places to promote development are closer to the city centre with existing transport infrastructure.

But she says places are becoming harder to find.

"A lot of the really ideal sites in established areas have been developed now," she said.

"So we're really using a lot of the less desirable areas to develop, whether they've been subject to contamination or they're industrial areas, that really need to go back to residential or a variety of things.

"But it's a matter of finding those sites and maximising the number of dwellings that can occur on them."

Ms Katz also says a combination of opposition to change from existing residents and slow planning processes are some of the reasons developers are often forced to look further afield from the city for development sites.

"It may take between two and four years from when you start a project to when you actually get approval for it. And that puts a lot of developers off because it's just seen as so difficult," she said.
Segmented housing

But Professor Stilwell says developers also enjoy the windfall gains often associated with developing what used to be rural land.

"If what was previously agricultural land becomes rezoned as residential land its value increases overnight. And of course the benefit of that rezoning is captured wholly by the original property owners," he said.

He says more development on the urban fringe also does not necessarily equal lower home prices across the city.

"The housing in an area like Sydney is very segmented," he said.

"A change in the supply of housing in our outer fringe areas doesn't necessarily have a direct impact on the cost of housing in the middle ring of suburbia or the inner city areas either."

The message seems to be that, as with China's vacant ghost city developments, homes must be built in places people actually want to live.

Read more: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-30/experts-debate-how-to-address-housing-shortage/3801284
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Admin
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Quote:
 
Developers seek faster approvals in urban areas

Matthew Moore
January 31, 2012

Developers have called on the state government to create a faster approval process for housing developments in built-up areas following revelations it is creating a similar process for new homes on Sydney's fringe. Developer groups yesterday praised a new state government land delivery plan in which landowners nominated 43 greenfield sites for new housing projects that would be considered by a new committee of government bureaucrats before going to cabinet for approval. But they said the government should go even further to speed up housing supply by duplicating this new approval process in existing urban areas, often called ''brownfield'' sites.

Read more: http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/developers-seek-faster-approvals-in-urban-areas-20120131-1qqgs.html
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