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Sydney Construction Boom Nearly Here; Construction growth of 15% is forecast in NSW over next two years
Topic Started: 8 Aug 2011, 12:56 PM (51,160 Views)
Veritas
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So what would be a boom then?

What would it look like in terms of the volume of new builds?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Enjoy The Ride
2 May 2013, 03:27 PM
I thought you might have wrote the topic title and description
Ah, so you haven't even read the OP then.

No, the 15% figure is from BIS Shrapnel, quoted by Larry Schlesinger.

My own prediction (which I have been predicting since 2007) was simply for the Sydney construction boom to kick off around 2011.
Edited by Shadow, 2 May 2013, 03:33 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Enjoy The Ride
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Shadow
2 May 2013, 03:30 PM
Ah, so you haven't even read the OP then.

No, the 15% figure is from BIS Shrapnel, quoted by Larry Schlesinger.
Yes! I also read the description.

Quote:
 
Here comes the Sydney construction boom I've been talking about for the past few years...



When did the last few years preceding the 8th August 11' call start. Just for fun!

I know this could take a while but I am considering retirement EOFY.
Might give me something to do.
Enjoy The Ride!

The case for individual freedom rests chiefly on the recognition of the inevitable and universal ignorance of all of us concerning a great many of the factors on which the achievement of our ends and welfare depend. It is because every individual knows so little and, in particular, because we rarely know which of us knows best that we trust the independent and competitive efforts of many to induce the emergence of what we shall want when we see it. Humiliating to human pride as it may be, we must recognize that the advance and even the preservation of civilization are dependent upon a maximum of opportunity for accidents to happen.”
― Friedrich A. von Hayek


"I, on the other hand, am a fully rounded human being with a degree from the university of life, a diploma from the school of hard knocks, and three gold stars from the kindergarten of getting the shit kicked out of me." Blackadder.


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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Enjoy The Ride
2 May 2013, 03:35 PM
When did the last few years preceding the 8th August 11' call start.
I've said when my 'Sydney construction boom to kick off around 2011' call first started, in both of my last two replies to you. Would you like me to repeat it another dozen or so times, or are you able to re-read those posts carefully to discover where I cunningly hid the date, masquerading as an inconspicuous string of four digits camouflaged amongst those confusing letters.
Edited by Shadow, 2 May 2013, 03:51 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Enjoy The Ride
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I take it then our terms of reference is some time in 2007.

Just so I don't misquote you on the exact date please let me know what the level of builds in Sydney was at the time you called a construction boom starting in 11'.
Enjoy The Ride!

The case for individual freedom rests chiefly on the recognition of the inevitable and universal ignorance of all of us concerning a great many of the factors on which the achievement of our ends and welfare depend. It is because every individual knows so little and, in particular, because we rarely know which of us knows best that we trust the independent and competitive efforts of many to induce the emergence of what we shall want when we see it. Humiliating to human pride as it may be, we must recognize that the advance and even the preservation of civilization are dependent upon a maximum of opportunity for accidents to happen.”
― Friedrich A. von Hayek


"I, on the other hand, am a fully rounded human being with a degree from the university of life, a diploma from the school of hard knocks, and three gold stars from the kindergarten of getting the shit kicked out of me." Blackadder.


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Elastic
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If this turns out to be a wrong call for Shadow then it will also mean that his claim of being correct 80-90% of the time is also wrong.
I've been tabulating his hits and misses for the past year or so and he will definitely drop below 80% if this construction boom goes bang.
This could then mean that his 80-90% claim becomes another wrong call and brings his batting average down even further.
His reputation is really on the line here and personally, I will no longer be blindly trusting his every word if this boom fails to occur.

So what do you mean exactly by boom?
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Enjoy The Ride
2 May 2013, 04:00 PM
I take it then our terms of reference is some time in 2007.

Just so I don't misquote you on the exact date please let me know what the level of builds in Sydney was at the time you called a construction boom starting in 11'.
Why is that relevant?
Elastic
2 May 2013, 04:19 PM
If this turns out to be a wrong call for Shadow...
Don't worry... regardless of what happens I will find some way to spin it into a correct call in order to maintain my 80-90% success rate, and in the process hours of fun will be had debating the meaning of words like 'by', 'around', 'boom' and 'kick off'. This alone should keep activity here up by at least a hundred posts per week for the next few years, and will provide people like Yossarian and Earthsta with plenty of bones to waste their time chewing in endless infuriating circles as they continue to tear their hair out for my amusement.
Edited by Shadow, 2 May 2013, 05:49 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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frankrider
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Shadow
2 May 2013, 05:42 PM
regardless of what happens I will find some way to spin it into a correct call in order to maintain my 80-90% success rate, and in the process hours of fun will be had debating the meaning of words like 'by', 'around', 'boom' and 'kick off'.
So does anybody question now why I have this fool on the ignore list? He admits he will "Lie" to keep his supposed success rate. No wonder he laps up BIS shrapnel spin, they have the worst reputation in the country for shit predictions.

Listening to shads is like putting your head in the toilet. But having said that, he is a fair example of the modern Australian property speculator.

Negative gearing is a form of leveraged speculation in which a speculator borrows money to buy an asset, but the income generated by that asset does not cover the interest on the loan

A negative gearing strategy can only make a profit if the asset rises so much in price that the capital gain is more than the sum of the ongoing losses over the life of the speculation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_gearing
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Elastic
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Shadow
2 May 2013, 05:42 PM
Why is that relevant?

Don't worry... regardless of what happens I will find some way to spin it into a correct call in order to maintain my 80-90% success rate, and in the process hours of fun will be had debating the meaning of words like 'by', 'around', 'boom' and 'kick off'. This alone should keep activity here up by at least a hundred posts per week for the next few years, and will provide people like Yossarian and Earthsta with plenty of bones to waste their time chewing in endless infuriating circles as they continue to tear their hair out for my amusement.
Thanks for the reassurance Shadow. I still have the faith you can pull through on this one.
If anyone can, you can.
Only a rat can win a rat race.

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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

frankrider
2 May 2013, 07:00 PM
So does anybody question now why I have this fool on the ignore list?
Yes! I, the fool, now question it!

Why do you have this fool on the ignore list, considering that you're still compelled to respond to the foolish fool's posts?

Your ignore list has failed you, just like your gold investment.

Who is the fool? The fool, or the fool who can't ignore him?
Edited by Shadow, 2 May 2013, 07:29 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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