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Sydney Construction Boom Nearly Here; Construction growth of 15% is forecast in NSW over next two years
Topic Started: 8 Aug 2011, 12:56 PM (51,161 Views)
Shadow
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http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/8156927/10/#post8390963

earthsta
23 Feb 2013, 02:15 PM
Posted Image

Actually, now that I look at you chart, it has a vague EW look about it.

Can't remember EW principle off the top off my head, but based on the principle, the bottom should be 1480ish if I remember the theory correctly.

Thanks for posting that chart..... I smell money :tu:
Edited by Shadow, 1 May 2013, 02:00 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Yossarian
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Sharp Decline in Building Approvals Underlines Delicate State Of Housing Industry. March numbers show largest monthly decline since last July. NSW down 11%. Reality continues undefeated season.
Edited by Yossarian, 2 May 2013, 02:51 PM.
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Shadow
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Yossarian
2 May 2013, 02:51 PM
LOL, still obsessed with me Yossarian?

Don't worry so much about month to month volatility... you need to look at the long term trend. As the report you linked to says...

“When we take a longer view on today’s data, the picture is a little more encouraging. Approvals in March were 3.9 per cent higher than twelve months previously. For the first
quarter of 2013, total approvals rose by 8.8 per cent compared with the same period in 2012,”


Yossarian shoots... he scores... another own goal. :)
Edited by Shadow, 2 May 2013, 03:03 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Enjoy The Ride
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Shadow
2 May 2013, 02:55 PM
LOL, still obsessed with me Yossarian?

Don't worry so much about month to month volatility... you need to look at the trend. As the report you linked to says...

“When we take a longer view on today’s data, the picture is a little more encouraging. Approvals in March were 3.9 per cent higher than twelve months previously. For the first
quarter of 2013, total approvals rose by 8.8 per cent compared with the same period in 2012,”
Shadow- You started this thread in '11 still no long awaited construction boom. Maybe you got this one wrong?
Enjoy The Ride!

The case for individual freedom rests chiefly on the recognition of the inevitable and universal ignorance of all of us concerning a great many of the factors on which the achievement of our ends and welfare depend. It is because every individual knows so little and, in particular, because we rarely know which of us knows best that we trust the independent and competitive efforts of many to induce the emergence of what we shall want when we see it. Humiliating to human pride as it may be, we must recognize that the advance and even the preservation of civilization are dependent upon a maximum of opportunity for accidents to happen.”
― Friedrich A. von Hayek


"I, on the other hand, am a fully rounded human being with a degree from the university of life, a diploma from the school of hard knocks, and three gold stars from the kindergarten of getting the shit kicked out of me." Blackadder.


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Shadow
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Enjoy The Ride
2 May 2013, 03:01 PM
Shadow- You started this thread in '11 still no long awaited construction boom. Maybe you got this one wrong?
The Sydney construction boom kicked off in late 2011 - early 2012.

Posted Image
Edited by Shadow, 2 May 2013, 03:04 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Enjoy The Ride
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Cool Chart! except your prediction was 8th August 2011. At around 3020 builds a 15% pa boom from there would have us at around 4000 by August 2013.

Post the 10y chart for a better view of your boom.
Enjoy The Ride!

The case for individual freedom rests chiefly on the recognition of the inevitable and universal ignorance of all of us concerning a great many of the factors on which the achievement of our ends and welfare depend. It is because every individual knows so little and, in particular, because we rarely know which of us knows best that we trust the independent and competitive efforts of many to induce the emergence of what we shall want when we see it. Humiliating to human pride as it may be, we must recognize that the advance and even the preservation of civilization are dependent upon a maximum of opportunity for accidents to happen.”
― Friedrich A. von Hayek


"I, on the other hand, am a fully rounded human being with a degree from the university of life, a diploma from the school of hard knocks, and three gold stars from the kindergarten of getting the shit kicked out of me." Blackadder.


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frankrider
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Denial, it's a mental issue as much as a social and financial. The basic principle of capitalism is Boom~Bust cycles where the little people are lured ito buying at the top and holding all the way down. This is how the rich get rich because wealth doesn't grow on trees, it has to be transfered from one group of people to another.

The denial shads expresses so obviously on this thread is just a normal part of the process of getting fleeced! How does he hide from this truth? He rants about gold collapsing still, even as it is going up, week after week? And his beloved houses (that he bought at a 40 year asset bubble top) are back to 2002 levels in real terms. They are 11 years backwards, by the estimate of the RBA governer only 8 months ago.

Denial, delusion, they are a lot easier to face than Dispair and Defeat, and it take a man of much greater humility and character than shadow posesses to admit he has been dudded and cop the losses. One day shadow will just vanish from the forum, but that is a lot of down days for property away yet.


Negative gearing is a form of leveraged speculation in which a speculator borrows money to buy an asset, but the income generated by that asset does not cover the interest on the loan

A negative gearing strategy can only make a profit if the asset rises so much in price that the capital gain is more than the sum of the ongoing losses over the life of the speculation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_gearing
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Shadow
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Enjoy The Ride
2 May 2013, 03:16 PM
Cool Chart! except your prediction was 8th August 2011. At around 3020 builds a 15% pa boom from there would have us at around 4000 by August 2013.

Post the 10y chart for a better view of your boom.
My prediction was always for the construction boom to kick off sometime around 2011 (I have been saying that since 2007).

Not sure where your 15% figure comes from - I haven't specified any particular pa magnitude.

Note that I have always said the boom will kick off around 2011 - i.e. that would be the early first stages or the first uptick of the boom.

Obviously the boom will peak at much higher levels of construction activity, compared to now when it is just after kicking off.
frankrider
2 May 2013, 03:19 PM
One day shadow will just vanish from the forum
LOL, that's what the bears on GHPC were telling me in 2007 and 2008.

Then the bears on Credit Crunch said the same thing throughout 2009 and 2010.

And many bears on APF have been saying it for the past three years too.

Strangely enough, most of the bears from GHPC and Credit Crunch themselves vanished when house prices rose, instead of crashing as they expected.

And many of the bears from APF have vanished too... Raveswei and Ted Bullpit being two notable examples.

I'm still here. :bye:
Edited by Shadow, 2 May 2013, 03:26 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Enjoy The Ride
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Shadow
2 May 2013, 03:19 PM
My prediction was always for the construction boom to kick off sometime around 2011 (I have been saying that since 2007).

Not sure where your 15% figure comes from - I haven't specified any particular pa magnitude.

Note that I have always said the boom will kick off around 2011 - i.e. that would be the early first stages or the first uptick of the boom.

Obviously the boom will peak at much higher levels of construction activity, compared to now when it is just after kicking off.

LOL, that's what the bears on GHPC were telling me in 2007 and 2008.

Then the bears on Credit Crunch said the same thing throughout 2009 and 2010.

And many bears on APF have been saying it for the past three years too.

Strangely enough, most of the bears from GHPC and Credit Crunch have themselves vanished.

And many of the bears from APF have vanished too... Raveswei and Ted Bullpit being two notable examples.

I'm still here. :bye:
I thought you might have wrote the topic title and description
Enjoy The Ride!

The case for individual freedom rests chiefly on the recognition of the inevitable and universal ignorance of all of us concerning a great many of the factors on which the achievement of our ends and welfare depend. It is because every individual knows so little and, in particular, because we rarely know which of us knows best that we trust the independent and competitive efforts of many to induce the emergence of what we shall want when we see it. Humiliating to human pride as it may be, we must recognize that the advance and even the preservation of civilization are dependent upon a maximum of opportunity for accidents to happen.”
― Friedrich A. von Hayek


"I, on the other hand, am a fully rounded human being with a degree from the university of life, a diploma from the school of hard knocks, and three gold stars from the kindergarten of getting the shit kicked out of me." Blackadder.


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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

frankrider
2 May 2013, 03:19 PM
And his beloved houses (that he bought at a 40 year asset bubble top) are back to 2002 levels in real terms. They are 11 years backwards
Posted Image
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
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