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Sydney Construction Boom Nearly Here; Construction growth of 15% is forecast in NSW over next two years
Topic Started: 8 Aug 2011, 12:56 PM (51,180 Views)
Rastus2
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Trojan
16 Mar 2012, 12:02 AM
Very close to what I said.
Its not everything but one of a handful of important things to get right when investing - getting it wrong (whilst everything else is correct) could still mean you lose money.

Short intermission over - you two can continue.
:popcorn:

I would consider it to be very, very close.

Trojan:
"In investing, wrong timing means wrong."


Your comment pretty much said that even if you get everything else right... wrong timing is everything and will destroy your investment... That was, after all, why I felt it a poor comparison for property vs puts/calls...

Did I misunderstand your claim on the importance of timing ?

Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rastus2
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Shadow
15 Mar 2012, 11:17 PM
I'm sure you would. You're welcome to either disprove it, or refuse to believe it. But I can assure you it is absolutely true.
Thank-you for confirming what I thought.. no evidence at all.

So you have no evidence of your 'hit rate'... just a wild guess of 80-90% that we should all just 'trust you on'... lol :rolleyes:

Yet you have all the time in the world to build a flawed list of what you claim are keen's failed predictions...

Yup, nothing to see here... no obsessive blind jealousy in sight on your part. :lol:
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
16 Mar 2012, 02:32 AM
Thank-you for confirming what I thought.. no evidence at all.
Indeed. You have no evidence to disprove the fact that 80-90% of my predictions are absolutely correct, they are in fact works of divine prophecy.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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earthsta
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Shadow
15 Mar 2012, 11:17 PM
Rastus2
15 Mar 2012, 11:05 PM
I would like to see the list of your claimed predictions to support your 80-90% claimed accuracy...
I'm sure you would. You're welcome to either disprove it, or refuse to believe it. But I can assure you it is absolutely true.
85-90% WRONG of late :lol:
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schooner
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Shadow
16 Mar 2012, 08:17 AM
they are in fact works of divine prophecy.
He's the anti-Christ next he will be off to restore rebuild the temple and then he will expect all the bulls to worship him.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor


Harry Triguboff buys St Hilliers North Ryde site with plans to build 330 apartments...

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/developments/harry-triguboff-buys-north-ryde-site-with-plans-to-build-330-apartments/2012032854065
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
16 Mar 2012, 08:17 AM
Indeed. You have no evidence to disprove the fact that 80-90% of my predictions are absolutely correct, they are in fact works of divine prophecy.
I see, so that is how the burden of proof works is it ?

You make a silly claim, and the onus is on others to disprove it rather than you to prove it...

Why stop at your 80-90% predictions being absolutely correct claim ?

You might as well go one step further and claim that the moon has a center of cheese and declare victory because no one has managed to disprove it.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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schooner
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Shadow
29 Mar 2012, 10:32 PM
Harry Triguboff buys St Hilliers North Ryde site with plans to build 330 apartments...

330 apartments!...so thats your construction boom.
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TED BULLPIT
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I would have to agree with shadow somewhat here when it comes to the apartment side of things . Over the last year or more , I have seen a phenominal amount of apatments being built along South Dowling st Sydney.

I dont know how many they are building but it seems like thousands are going up along there . There is certainly a building boom going on around the city of Sydney when it comes to apartments . I think with these first home buyer type projects going on and with stamp duty concessions recently removed , it will greatly impact the market segment and will force prices down further .
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peter fraser
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Rastus2
30 Mar 2012, 12:57 AM
Shadow
16 Mar 2012, 08:17 AM
Indeed. You have no evidence to disprove the fact that 80-90% of my predictions are absolutely correct, they are in fact works of divine prophecy.
I see, so that is how the burden of proof works is it ?

You make a silly claim, and the onus is on others to disprove it rather than you to prove it...

Indeed - in fact that is the exact tactic my wife uses in every point of difference.

It does seem to work exceptionally well.

Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
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