He also said Sydney house prices would rise in 2011 and reckons they will rise 13%pa for the next three years.
Shadow gets very little right these days.
Hopefully, he'll get the departure gate right when he leaves :lol:
The Sydney construction is boom is already here. It actually began in 2011 with the new NSW government introducing policy aimed at boosting residential construction, and this has now started to flow through to the figures, with new home starts edging up 0.6% in NSW in the final quarter of 2011, and even more impressively, NSW dwelling approvals surging a massive 37.6% in January 2012.
I did get my 2011 house price prediction wrong, but in fairness, I only get 80-90% of my predictions right, so I do expect the occasional miss now and again. I think I had a miss in 2008 as well (Yossarian will be along soon to post that one), so that's two incorrect predictions out of the dozens of predictions that I've made over the past few years. Not a bad record, if I do say so myself.
(And I didn't predict rises of 13% for the next three years... you just made that one up)
I did get my 2011 house price prediction wrong, but in fairness, I only get 80-90% of my predictions right, so I do expect the occasional miss now and again. I think I had a miss in 2008 as well (Yossarian will be along soon to post that one), so that's two incorrect predictions out of the dozens of predictions that I've made over the past few years. Not a bad record, if I do say so myself.
(And I didn't predict rises of 13% for the next three years... you just made that one up)
lol, well it's easy to get 80-90% of predictions right when you modify 80-90% of them to fit the outcome :rolleyes:
btw, you predicted massive rises to Sydney (approaching 1M by 2015) a few years ago... eipc fail to date..... the rise for this prediction to pan out has to be a lot higher than 13% for the next 3 years...
However, since you somehow unilaterally decided that Shadow can revise his predictions while keen can not, you do not see the failure staring you in the face.
However, since you somehow unilaterally decided that Shadow can revise his predictions while keen can not...
I haven't decided that. Anyone can revise predictions, including Keen. It is quite sensible to revise predictions (prior to the event, obviously) as new data becomes available. Whether or not the original prediction succeeds or fails depends on events that follow, regardless of whether or not the prediction was revised. Revising a prediction doesn't change the outcome.
I haven't decided that. Anyone can revise predictions, including Keen. It is quite sensible to revise predictions (prior to the event, obviously) as new data becomes available. Whether or not the original prediction succeeds or fails depends on events that follow, regardless of whether or not the prediction was revised. Revising a prediction doesn't change the outcome.
Actually constantly revising a prediction usually means (in the real world) that the original prediction was wrong...
You hold double standards by your claims above... Did you defend Keen's revision's, avoid talking about them, or join in the criticism about them ?
Indeed, by our claim no-one gets predictions wrong.. as long as they keep revising them...
I believe Trojan pointed out that timing was everything in investments... thus revisions (especially in timing) are failures.
Actually constantly revising a prediction usually means (in the real world) that the original prediction was wrong
Revising a prediction before the event has no effect on the outcome. The original prediction may still turn out to be the correct one.
For example, someone might predict that Melbourne will win the NRL, then revise this to say Canberra will win, then change again and say Brisbane will win.
If at the end of the season, Melbourne end up winning, then the original prediction was the correct one, and the two revised predictions were wrong.
Quote:
Did you defend Keen's revision's, avoid talking about them, or join in the criticism about them ?
What revisions are you referring to? Did he make the revisions before or after the expected deadline for the original prediction? Link?
Quote:
Indeed, by our claim no-one gets predictions wrong.. as long as they keep revising them
Revising a prediction has no impact on whether or not the original prediction will be right or wrong.
Quote:
I believe Trojan pointed out that timing was everything in investments... thus revisions (especially in timing) are failures.
Not sure I see the relevance? Changing the expected timeframe for a prediction is sensible when your facts/data/analysis/opinion change.
Whether or not the original or revised prediction (or neither) was correct will depend on the events that follow.
Revising a prediction before the event has no effect on the outcome. The original prediction may still turn out to be the correct one.
For example, someone might predict that Melbourne will win the NRL, then revise this to say Canberra will win, then change again and say Brisbane will win.
If at the end of the season, Melbourne end up winning, then the original prediction was the correct one, and the two revised predictions were wrong.
yada yada yada
a prediction where you keep extending the time limit is vastly different from predicting the result of the NRL game.
If I state that prices will do X within 12 months, and then, 2 months later say it will happen within another 12 months, and then 2 months later state it will happen within the next 12 months... in your opinion, how many goes do I get before I have made a failed predication ?
How long can the time extensions continue for ? and if the predicted X does happen.... do I get full credit for it being right ? Do I get full marks for getting it right if it indeed happens within that first 12 months even though I revised it some 6 times before the expiration of that 1st prediction ?
I think we can see through the shadows haze... Seems to me you have a rather odd idea of what a prediction is, varying it to suite your needs ... hard and fast rules for keen... sloppy loose rules for yourself..
If I state that prices will do X within 12 months, and then, 2 months later say it will happen within another 12 months, and then 2 months later state it will happen within the next 12 months... in your opinion, how many goes do I get before I have made a failed predication ?
Each prediction can be proved right or wrong at the end of the given period for the prediction. For example...
Original prediction (A) made in Jan 2012: 'median prices will reach $500K within 12 months' Revised prediction (B) made in Apr 2012: 'median prices will reach $500K within 12 months' Revised prediction (C) made in Jul 2012: 'median prices will reach $500K within 12 months'
A can be proved right or wrong in Jan 2013, or when prices reach $500K (whichever comes first) B can be proved right or wrong in Apr 2013, or when prices reach $500K (whichever comes first) C can be proved right or wrong in Jul 2013, or when prices reach $500K (whichever comes first)
If prices actually reach $500K in February 2013, then B and C were both right, and A was wrong.
Each prediction can be proved right or wrong at the end of the given period for the prediction. For example...
Original prediction (A) made in Jan 2012: 'median prices will reach $500K within 12 months' Revised prediction (B) made in Apr 2012: 'median prices will reach $500K within 12 months' Revised prediction (C) made in Jul 2012: 'median prices will reach $500K within 12 months'
A can be proved right or wrong in Jan 2013, or when prices reach $500K (whichever comes first) B can be proved right or wrong in Apr 2013, or when prices reach $500K (whichever comes first) C can be proved right or wrong in Jul 2013, or when prices reach $500K (whichever comes first)
If prices actually reach $500K in February 2013, then B and C were both right, and A was wrong.
I agree with that.. they are separate predictions and all prone to a fail mark (or a win tick)..
Much the same as your predictions and their versions of the Sydney median with their shifting time lines. (at least 3 or 4 versions of time frames, and varying median values that I know of).
I would like to see the list of your claimed predictions to support your 80-90% claimed accuracy... do you have the evidence to support your claim ?
I believe Trojan pointed out that timing was everything in investments... thus revisions (especially in timing) are failures.
Very close to what I said. Its not everything but one of a handful of important things to get right when investing - getting it wrong (whilst everything else is correct) could still mean you lose money.
Short intermission over - you two can continue. :popcorn:
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