"Hellooo Mr. Frog!" called the scorpion across the water, "Would you be so kind as to give me a ride on your back across the river?"
"Well now, Mr. Scorpion! How do I know that if I try to help you, you wont try to kill me?" asked the frog hesitantly.
"Because," the scorpion replied, "If I try to kill you, then I would die too, for you see I cannot swim!"
Now this seemed to make sense to the frog. But he asked. "What about when I get close to the bank? You could still try to kill me and get back to the shore!"
"This is true," agreed the scorpion, "But then I wouldn't be able to get to the other side of the river!"
"Alright then...how do I know you wont just wait till we get to the other side and THEN kill me?" said the frog.
"Ahh...," crooned the scorpion, "Because you see, once you've taken me to the other side of this river, I will be so grateful for your help, that it would hardly be fair to reward you with death, now would it?!"
So the frog agreed to take the scorpion across the river. He swam over to the bank and settled himself near the mud to pick up his passenger. The scorpion crawled onto the frog's back, his sharp claws prickling into the frog's soft hide, and the frog slid into the river. The muddy water swirled around them, but the frog stayed near the surface so the scorpion would not drown. He kicked strongly through the first half of the stream, his flippers paddling wildly against the current.
Halfway across the river, the frog suddenly felt a sharp sting in his back and, out of the corner of his eye, saw the scorpion remove his stinger from the frog's back. A deadening numbness began to creep into his limbs.
"You fool!" croaked the frog, "Now we shall both die! Why on earth did you do that?"
The scorpion shrugged, and did a little jig on the drownings frog's back.
"I could not help myself. It is my nature."
Then they both sank into the muddy waters of the swiftly flowing river.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
ugg, there have been so many of these 11th hour critical dealings since the GFC made headlines, and each one has been sorted out just in time...
of course, if they did default, maybe that would plummet the value of the USD. which is probably something they want.
it must be annoying that when there is a financial meltdown, EVEN when it is one in YOUR country, that everyone STILL flocks to YOUR country's currency for security!
srsly! its like, fuck off somewhere else so we can depreciate our currency and be more competitive with trade!!
ugg, there have been so many of these 11th hour critical dealings since the GFC made headlines, and each one has been sorted out just in time...
of course, if they did default, maybe that would plummet the value of the USD. which is probably something they want.
it must be annoying that when there is a financial meltdown, EVEN when it is one in YOUR country, that everyone STILL flocks to YOUR country's currency for security!
srsly! its like, fuck off somewhere else so we can depreciate our currency and be more competitive with trade!!
It's a bit like after the Tsunami when the Yen started to appreciate. It's like 'this is what we do in a crisis, this is what we have always done in a crisis'. The Aussie will be sold off too, when it's the Aussie they should be buying. Everyone is talking Aug 2nd - but the real date is this Monday 24th in order for them to get it past both houses and get the cheques signed. If they don't agree something this Monday, then the Dow will drop. But the ASX will be closed by then, so where it will get it's direction from in the morning is anyone's guess. Like the calm before the storm. But I guess if it's all agreed before the 2nd, a technical default won't make much difference, and any losses will bounce back
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
The FT Alphaville website/blog has had some excellent stuff about the debt ceiling.
This item that they posted from Goldman Sachs shows one possible timetable.
Another possible (probable?) outcome is that Obama is temporarily given executive power over the debt ceiling while talks continue. That means that the Democrats can carry on spending and the Republicans can let them without having to vote for higher spending.
If they don't agree something this Monday, then the Dow will drop. But the ASX will be closed by then, so where it will get it's direction from in the morning is anyone's guess. Like the calm before the storm. But I guess if it's all agreed before the 2nd, a technical default won't make much difference, and any losses will bounce back
If they don't agree something this Monday, then the Dow will drop. But the ASX will be closed by then, so where it will get it's direction from in the morning is anyone's guess. Like the calm before the storm. But I guess if it's all agreed before the 2nd, a technical default won't make much difference, and any losses will bounce back
ASX is dropping hard and fast today.
That's nothing - it's waiting for direction from Europe and the US
The gun's loaded and the finger's on the trigger. All we need is someone to shout boo. Looking at the state of the world - that's not a hard thing to imagine. It's a bit like the pop tart moment in Pulp Fiction.
That's nothing - it's waiting for direction from Europe and the US
The gun's loaded and the finger's on the trigger. All we need is someone to shout boo. Looking at the state of the world - that's not a hard thing to imagine.
Its in the US's interest to default. I think there is a chance they will.
The British effectively defaulted in the 1930's, so why not the US.
"In the course of the Great Depression of the 1930s most European governments defaulted on their debts, following unsuccessful attempts to remain on the gold standard. In 1932, the British Government effectively defaulted by converting its 5% War Loan Bonds into new 3½ % bonds on terms that were unfavourable to their holders[5], and in 1934 the French government defaulted on repayment of a loan from the United States."
So don't be shocked if the Yanks do the same.
All the BS fixation on a tiny country like Greece was a smokescreen. The real problem is with the UK / US.
They do not want to accept that they are not the premier players anymore.
That's nothing - it's waiting for direction from Europe and the US
The gun's loaded and the finger's on the trigger. All we need is someone to shout boo. Looking at the state of the world - that's not a hard thing to imagine.
Its in the US's interest to default. I think there is a chance they will.
The British effectively defaulted in the 1930's, so why not the US.
"In the course of the Great Depression of the 1930s most European governments defaulted on their debts, following unsuccessful attempts to remain on the gold standard. In 1932, the British Government effectively defaulted by converting its 5% War Loan Bonds into new 3½ % bonds on terms that were unfavourable to their holders[5], and in 1934 the French government defaulted on repayment of a loan from the United States."
So don't be shocked if the Yanks do the same.
All the BS fixation on a tiny country like Greece was a smokescreen. The real problem is with the UK / US.
They do not want to accept that they are not the premier players anymore.
If they do default its because they have a vocal minority of nutjobs who want to see an epoch-making event. These are people many of whom believe in the Rapture and literal meaning of the Bible. They also believe (perhaps rightly) that the more unrest and chaos there is, the more chance they have of advancing their own agenda. The only risk they run is that the consequences are really bad and they cop the blame, but they are relying on their proven ability to manipulate the media and the proven tendency of the US public to allow the debate to be taken to a childishly low level.
A default would be catastrophic for the US. It would be a defining event in their modern history and noone could really predict what will then happen.
Obama is basically calling for the markets to revolt, much as they did during the post-Lehman events which created the politcal will for TARP and its offspring.
If they do, the Republicans will wet themselves and cave in (a bit anyway). If they don't in the next few days, the events may occur too quickly for anyone to react.
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