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Chronic Australian Housing Shortage is a Myth - Analyst Pointing to an Oversupply; Ryder and Matusik
Topic Started: 7 Jul 2011, 05:04 PM (5,643 Views)
raveswei
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Strindberg
11 Jul 2011, 01:26 PM
Bollocks. It was raveswei who introduced the 20 year projections with his made up shit here.. pauk spends his whole time making up 20 year and more projections.
Anyway, you obviously believe like raveswei that there are more than enough houses now for the next 20 years - its utter bollocks - we're projected to have 3 million more households over the next 20 years. Saying there's enough houses now (raveswei says we have more than enough) for 2031 makes you both tools and not worth any more breath.
do you know what projection is?

All my calculations are based on known information not projections of some future household numbers. I didn't claim that we will not need new homes but that existing housing will be more than adequate for all internal demand – need of our 10-30 year olds for a place to live.

If there is no future immigration our population will be lower in 2030. This means that our existing housing stock is more than enough to provide home to all of our children.

ABS projections include immigrants – number that fluctuates by 50% over the short periods and that’s why they are so inaccurate.

If our net immigration numbers stay below 250k and construction remains around 150k a year, we are to have huge additional oversupply by 2030.
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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raveswei
11 Jul 2011, 03:10 PM
do you know what projection is?

All my calculations are based on known information not projections of some future household numbers. I didn't claim that we will not need new homes but that existing housing will be more than adequate for all internal demand – need of our 10-30 year olds for a place to live.

If there is no future immigration our population will be lower in 2030. This means that our existing housing stock is more than enough to provide home to all of our children.

ABS projections include immigrants – number that fluctuates by 50% over the short periods and that’s why they are so inaccurate.

If our net immigration numbers stay below 250k and construction remains around 150k a year, we are to have huge additional oversupply by 2030.
Mmmmm....66% of our NOM is temporary visa holders....they must return home...
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zaph
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pauk
11 Jul 2011, 03:47 PM
Mmmmm....66% of our NOM is temporary visa holders....they must return home...
must they?
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zaph
11 Jul 2011, 07:27 PM
must they?
Yes, that is why they are temporary visas. They can apply onshore for a permanent visa under skilled migration, however they must complete with all applicants for this category.
In the case of students, they must go home if they do not get a skilled visa and that is why our emigrtation numbers are so high at the moment I think.
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Admin
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Quote:
 
No Australia-wide housing shortage: CSR’s Ross Sindel

By Larry Schlesinger
Monday, 21 May 2012

Australia is not suffering from a nationwide undersupply of housing, according to Rob Sindel, chief executive of building products group CSR.

Sindel has rejected forecasts put out by the Housing Industry Association (HIA) that even under a high building rate scenario, Australia is heading for a shortfall of 213,000 houses, with a shortfall of 90,000 in NSW and 60,000 in WA.

Sindel says he does not believe these estimates because they are based on the assumption that the number of people living in a house is shrinking – a trend he says is now reversing.

“[The number of people living in a house has] started to go up after falling for a number of years,” Sindel told the ABC’s Inside Business program.

“What you've got is you've got shortages in certain places. You've got shortages in NSW, you've got shortages in south-east Queensland. You've got a shortage in Western Australia.

“You don't have a shortage in Victoria. And it's often driven by land shortages, it's driven by a number of factors. So I think it's very hard to categorise the Australian market as just one market. There is a series of undermarkets,” he says.

Sindel warns that the current dip in housing construction is looking like being a much longer affair than dips experienced during the 1990s, which he says “were six or eight months then you could see your way through the other side”.

“This time I think we had the dip, we had the stimulus, and now we've dipped again on the basis- and I think people are very fearful about what's happening in Europe and we've got a lot more information through the media.

“So people are putting off those big decisions like buying a house and so you're seeing a much, much more drawn-out recovery,” he says.

CSR estimates that total housing starts in Australia will fall to about 140,000 in the year to March 2013, down from the 148,300 in 2012.

Last week CSR reported that net profit fell to $76.3 million in the year to March 31 from $503.4 million the previous year.

Trading revenue fell to $1.8 billion from $1.9 billion.

"Excluding the global financial crisis and the introduction of the GST, this represents the lowest level of housing activity in the past 15 years," CSR said in a statement.

Read more: http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/no-australian-wide-housing-shortage-csrs-ross-sindel/2012052154769
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Rastus2
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Australia is not suffering from a nationwide undersupply of housing, according to Rob Sindel, chief executive of building products group CSR.

Sindel has rejected forecasts put out by the Housing Industry Association (HIA) that even under a high building rate scenario, Australia is heading for a shortfall of 213,000 houses, with a shortfall of 90,000 in NSW and 60,000 in WA.

Sindel says he does not believe these estimates because they are based on the assumption that the number of people living in a house is shrinking – a trend he says is now reversing.


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Cat's out of the bag, so to speak eh bulls ? :re:
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Frank Castle
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Business As Usual

Rastus2
22 May 2012, 01:14 AM
Australia is not suffering from a nationwide undersupply of housing, according to Rob Sindel, chief executive of building products group CSR.

Sindel has rejected forecasts put out by the Housing Industry Association (HIA) that even under a high building rate scenario, Australia is heading for a shortfall of 213,000 houses, with a shortfall of 90,000 in NSW and 60,000 in WA.

Sindel says he does not believe these estimates because they are based on the assumption that the number of people living in a house is shrinking – a trend he says is now reversing.


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Cat's out of the bag, so to speak eh bulls ? :re:
Quote:
 
Rob Sindel

“What you've got is you've got shortages in certain places. You've got shortages in NSW, you've got shortages in south-east Queensland. You've got a shortage in Western Australia.

“You don't have a shortage in Victoria. And it's often driven by land shortages, it's driven by a number of factors. So I think it's very hard to categorise the Australian market as just one market. There is a series of undermarkets,” he says.


Best to clarify what he "Actually" said eh rastus ;)
Edited by Frank Castle, 22 May 2012, 06:57 AM.
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring
The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
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hoofarted
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It wont be long before we don't have a shortage in those other places either.
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Thatguy
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Rastus2
22 May 2012, 01:14 AM
Australia is not suffering from a nationwide undersupply of housing, according to Rob Sindel, chief executive of building products group CSR.

Sindel has rejected forecasts put out by the Housing Industry Association (HIA) that even under a high building rate scenario, Australia is heading for a shortfall of 213,000 houses, with a shortfall of 90,000 in NSW and 60,000 in WA.

Sindel says he does not believe these estimates because they are based on the assumption that the number of people living in a house is shrinking – a trend he says is now reversing.


---------------------------------------------------------

Cat's out of the bag, so to speak eh bulls ? :re:
Why would HIA lie about a housing shortage, I mean what have they got to gain?

As for the supply/demand situation of <30yr olds. I guess this just shows that demand is a dynamic that is linked to price and ability to pay.

Surely some calcs could be done to work out a scenario in 15 years as to what kind of increased occupancy of bedrooms we will have. (ie. people that are 65 with 3 bedroom house now dead - 50% of said houses now house 3+ people).
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Thatguy
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Frank Castle
22 May 2012, 06:55 AM



Best to clarify what he "Actually" said eh rastus ;)
FWIW . There's definitely no shortage in SEQ
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