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Chronic Australian Housing Shortage is a Myth - Analyst Pointing to an Oversupply; Ryder and Matusik
Topic Started: 7 Jul 2011, 05:04 PM (5,645 Views)
raveswei
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Strindberg
9 Jul 2011, 02:19 PM
So, having been exposed yet again as a maker up of shit, you are saying you "purposely" made up shit when you wrote:




You now say its 2 million, not 3 million.

You are simply a lying bastard with fuck-all integrity. But I can see why you do it. There are suckers here who you know will believe you as long as what you say fits their beloved crash scenario.

Yourself and and the other maker of shit, pauk, can feed your audience of suckers all day long knowing they'll never challenge you. If someone does challenge you can always say, like you have this time, that you deliberately lied and expect to get a pat on the back.

You are a slimy, distasteful, dishonest bastard.


are you angry because you helped me prove that housing supply from dying generations will be more than needed by young generations (33% more than enough)

you didn't expose anything but this truth and now you cannot say it's a lie

so now people do not have to trust me but you - you provided the data ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha :lol: :lol: :lol:


so as Strindberg said there will be almost 2 million homes more available in next 20 years and less than 1.5 million needed by new generations - at least 500k more excess homes in next 20 years
Edited by raveswei, 10 Jul 2011, 07:42 PM.
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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Rastus2
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raveswei
10 Jul 2011, 07:37 PM
are you angry because you helped me prove that housing supply from dying generations will be more than needed by young generations (33% more than enough)

you didn't expose anything but this truth and now you cannot say it's a lie

so now people do not have to trust me but you - you provided the data ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha :lol: :lol: :lol:


so as Strindberg said there will be almost 2 million homes more available in next 20 years and less than 1.5 million needed by new generations - at least 500k more excess homes in next 20 years

Well done...
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rastus2
10 Jul 2011, 08:04 PM

Well done...
Yes, the old switch a roo.... Max Smart would be proud....
It is a wonder Julia does not try it on Tony....lol
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Strindberg
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raveswei
10 Jul 2011, 07:37 PM

so as Strindberg said there will be almost 2 million homes more available in next 20 years and less than 1.5 million needed by new generations - at least 500k more excess homes in next 20 years
He said no such thing. You just made up yet more shit.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/65F280EE22A7ECB5CA25773B0017BC58?opendocument

Quote:
 
The number of households in Australia is projected to increase from 7.8 million in 2006 to between 11.4 and 11.8 million in 2031 (Series I and Series III respectively). This is an increase of between 3.7 and 4.0 million households, or 47% to 52%. Over the same period, Australia's population is projected to increase by 39%, from 20.7 million people to 28.8 million people.


We have about 8.8m household now. So, an additional 3 million households over the next 20 years. Each household needs a dwelling. 3 million net new dwellings will be required. Your talk of "excess homes" is complete made up bollocks.

But anyway, you can talk to yourself now. I'm wasting no more time on the makers of shit ie raveswei, rastarse and pauk.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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PuntPal
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Strindberg...the point of the article and this thread was very simple.

Claims of 'a chronic shortage of houses across Australia' were made by every Bull in 2008-2010 based on population growth that has slowed dramatically and housing formation trends that have now reversed sharply.

This now means that we could potentially have an oversupply of houses in many areas (SE QLD, Perth and Melbourne).

The fact that vacancy rates are rising and stock not selling suggests we have plenty of houses and the shortage never acutally existed outside a few suburbs in Sydney.

So rather than go berko...explain in simple terms why the above reasoning is wrong...
Edited by PuntPal, 11 Jul 2011, 12:21 PM.
"Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." - Paul Krugman 2002

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raveswei
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Strindberg
11 Jul 2011, 11:43 AM
He said no such thing. You just made up yet more shit.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/65F280EE22A7ECB5CA25773B0017BC58?opendocument




We have about 8.8m household now. So, an additional 3 million households over the next 20 years. Each household needs a dwelling. 3 million net new dwellings will be required. Your talk of "excess homes" is complete made up bollocks.

But anyway, you can talk to yourself now. I'm wasting no more time on the makers of shit ie raveswei, rastarse and pauk.
You look angry :lol: :lol: :lol:

oh yeah, now you have to use ABS projections that were wrong more times than correct

- in Household and Family Projections published in 1999 they projected number of households in 2006 to be: 8.08m (series B) between 7.94m and 8.13m
- in Household and Family Projections published in 2004 they projected number of households in 2006 to be: 8.06m (series B) between 7.97m and 8.06m

- in Household and Family Projections published last year (2010) they said there were only 7.78m households in 2006,

they did projection just 2 years earlier and made mistake of 280k households - we could go from 140k homes shortage to 140k oversupply in just 2 years without building any home in meanwhile,

how big mistake thay will make on 20 years projection if they miss 280k for 2 years one?

http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/DF2989BFFA7392E1CA256EB6007D63F4/$File/32360_2001%20to%202026.pdf

http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/CA25687100069892CA256889000C066A/$File/32360_1996%20to%202021.pdf

http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/E0A19034C211C5C5CA25773B0017E303/$File/32360do001_20062031.xls


sure it will be more households in 2031 than now but not created by internal demand



Quote:
 
He said no such thing. You just made up yet more shit.


BTW: why you refer to Strindberg as "he"
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Strindberg
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PuntPal
11 Jul 2011, 12:19 PM
Strindberg...the point of the article and this thread was very simple.

Claims of 'a chronic shortage of houses across Australia' were made by every Bull in 2008-2010 based on population growth that has slowed dramatically and housing formation trends that have now reversed sharply.

This now means that we could potentially have an oversupply of houses in many areas (SE QLD, Perth and Melbourne).

The fact that vacancy rates are rising and stock not selling suggests we have plenty of houses and the shortage never acutally existed outside a few suburbs in Sydney.

So rather than go berko...explain in simple terms why the above reasoning is wrong...
I haven't disputed that there may at the moment be excess houses in some parts. Not every non-gloomer made the claim you are stating.
I'm disputing the idiotic invented claim by raveswei (to appeal to bears like yourself) that we have an excess of houses which will more than cover the next 20 years. He's saying that the deaths over the next 20 years will release more dwellings than will be required by new household formations. That is what he saying. Go ahead, believe him. Your problem not mine.
Edited by Strindberg, 11 Jul 2011, 12:48 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-4366580/AUSTRALIA-S-HOUSING-BOOM-TO.html
Article Excerpt
CANBERRA, June 10, 2005
Asia Pulse - Don't worry about interest rates - dying babyboomers and dwindling birth rates will put the brakes on Australia's housing boom during the next 20 years.

A new study by accounting group KPMG for the Property Council of Australia predicts demand for new homes and units will peak this decade before dropping by a third in the 2020s.

The average number of dwellings needed this decade is tipped to rise six per cent to 1.42 million compared to the 1990s when 1.34 million were constructed.

But once the calendar ticks over to 2010 demand will drop significantly to 1.28 million and then hit 1.09 million in the 2020s.

KPMG partner Bernard Salt says the falls will be driven by more babyboomers dying, women having fewer children and the continued decline of the traditional nuclear family.

Not even policies aimed at encouraging women to have more children will help.

"Falling fertility levels and increasing baby boomer deaths erode the level of natural increase (for housing demand) across the nation," his report said.

"Policies aimed at increasing the fertility rate might at best temper this decline."

Homes supporting a nuclear family - mum, dad and the kids - make up a third of total houses now. By by 2031 they will account for just a quarter.

But the study also found that while the overall trend for dwelling demand will slide, idyllic coastal towns and provincial regions are likely to buck the trend.

Some of the biggest growth spurts will be felt at Western Australia's seaside resort town of Mandurah plus the popular Queensland coastal region stretching from the Gold Coast through Brisbane and up the Sunshine Coast.

The rush for a seachange will be mainly driven by...
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PuntPal
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Strindberg
11 Jul 2011, 12:47 PM
Strindberg:
I haven't disputed that there may at the moment be excess houses in some parts. Not every non-gloomer made the claim you are stating. I'm disputing the idiotic invented claim by raveswei (to appeal to bears like yourself) that we have an excess of houses which will more than cover the next 20 years. He's saying that the deaths over the next 20 years will release more dwellings than will be required by new household formations. That is what he saying. Go ahead, believe him. Your problem not mine.
I reckon about 70% of the Bulls argument rests on the claim that we have a shortage of houses. Every single major Bull has used it as a pillar of their beleif that a crash wont occur. Of course it would be used...with a shortage of houses, it aint a bubble....just market fundamentals of excess demand causing house price increases

Without a shortage...its clear as day its a bubble waiting to pop.

I think Raveswei is just pointing out the stupidity of doing 20 year projections for houses needed. There are just so many variables and unknowns that it is simply useless - othert than to be used as a tool for Bulls to try and scare young people that they might 'miss out'.
"Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." - Paul Krugman 2002

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Strindberg
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PuntPal
11 Jul 2011, 01:12 PM
I think Raveswei is just pointing out the stupidity of doing 20 year projections for houses needed. There are just so many variables and unknowns that it is simply useless - othert than to be used as a tool for Bulls to try and scare young people that they might 'miss out'.
Bollocks. It was raveswei who introduced the 20 year projections with his made up shit here.. pauk spends his whole time making up 20 year and more projections.
Anyway, you obviously believe like raveswei that there are more than enough houses now for the next 20 years - its utter bollocks - we're projected to have 3 million more households over the next 20 years. Saying there's enough houses now (raveswei says we have more than enough) for 2031 makes you both tools and not worth any more breath.
Edited by Strindberg, 11 Jul 2011, 01:28 PM.
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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