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Chronic Australian Housing Shortage is a Myth - Analyst Pointing to an Oversupply; Ryder and Matusik
Topic Started: 7 Jul 2011, 05:04 PM (5,647 Views)
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Bull argument - 23% of our homes are lone occupants and this is projected to rise to 33% as our nation ages.
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Rastus2
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Sunder
8 Jul 2011, 06:28 PM
On, I'm not on the fence. I'm definitely on one side but I'm looking over it to see what's on the other side.

My basic position for Sydney at least is this:

1) Sydney's population is growing
2) Sydney's borders is not, with continuous housing up to Hornsby, Penrith, Campbelltown and Engadine having existed for decades.
3) We're not building new regional cities
4) Campaigns to move people out to existing regional cities have failed (Millions spent to move 70 families! Who probably would have moved anyway!)
5) Infill is the only way we are fitting people in. Quarter acre blocks have become one eighth acre blocks and even down to one sixteenth blocks (Approx 250sqm). I say only infill, because overbuilding houses on the Central Coast or Wollongong is not going to solve shortage problems in Sydney.

So it really comes down to 5. Is our infill building enough to supply growth from:

A) Organic population growth
B) Immigration
C) Changing demographics, including the shift to more single person households (from divorce and never marrying)

My feeling is no. New developments are often fully subscribed before the closing date. Vacancy rates are low. I simply don't SEE lots of empty houses.

Ask me to prove it? I couldn't be bothered.

On to a semi related topic. Reason 5 is also why I think long term, as long as population keeps going, and wages don't fall, buying real land is going to be a good bet. A quarter acre block was normal 30 years ago. Now it's luxury. In 30 years, when I'm nearing retirement, I'm willing to bet that the ANY freestanding house is going to be a luxury, afforded only by the upper middle to upper class. Most people will be in semi-detached and apartments. Worth thinking about, no?


Ahh... Now I see the problem.

You are talking about Sydney... I highly doubt there is a massive supply in Sydney...

As for the rest of Australia.... That is a different story.



So it seems we agree... On sydney at least.

Now all the huff and puff on how we have a critical shortage throughout Australia.. I repeat... I highly doubt that.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rastus2
8 Jul 2011, 05:46 PM
did you Even bother to look at the 3 charts before you commented ?

I have not seen them before, and they certainly provide some solid evidence that australia has very low numbers of people per dwelling vs America at the height of it's building boom and Australia has low number of peep per home and certainly high number of rooms per home.


That is all the evidence I need to reconsider my opinion that we may have been duped into believing we have a serious undersupply of housing...

You seem to be blinkered to that possibility.


Just because kids are not moving out of home as soon as they would like is not evidence of a shortage.

Many obese kids are not eating as much junk food as they would like... That is not proof of any undersupply of junk food.


Edit: man I hate typing this on the iPad...
Get one of these. they are great...
http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Bluetooth-Keyboard-Leather-Cover-Case-Apple-iPad-2-/130541272209?pt=AU_Computers_Apple_Parts_Accessories&hash=item1e64ddbc91

and no, i do not sell them...lol
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Rastus2
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pauk
8 Jul 2011, 10:50 PM
Rastus2
8 Jul 2011, 05:46 PM
did you Even bother to look at the 3 charts before you commented ?

I have not seen them before, and they certainly provide some solid evidence that australia has very low numbers of people per dwelling vs America at the height of it's building boom and Australia has low number of peep per home and certainly high number of rooms per home.


That is all the evidence I need to reconsider my opinion that we may have been duped into believing we have a serious undersupply of housing...

You seem to be blinkered to that possibility.


Just because kids are not moving out of home as soon as they would like is not evidence of a shortage.

Many obese kids are not eating as much junk food as they would like... That is not proof of any undersupply of junk food.


Edit: man I hate typing this on the iPad...
Get one of these. they are great...
http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Bluetooth-Keyboard-Leather-Cover-Case-Apple-iPad-2-/130541272209?pt=AU_Computers_Apple_Parts_Accessories&hash=item1e64ddbc91

and no, i do not sell them...lol
Thanks, they do look good.

Problem is, I have an orig. Apple Bluetooth keyboard that is cumbersom to use when traveling as I am now... I am also a terrible tight ass when it comes to buying a better version of somthing I already have...

Lol
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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raveswei
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Sunder
8 Jul 2011, 06:11 PM


One stat we might have forgotten on the flip side though, is that not everyone gets married or live in a defacto relationship, and choose to live alone.
- so there are 3 million old 65+ households in Australia (lone or two person)

- there are 1.6 million 20-30 year olds (1.25 m with no home - living with parents)

let's assume that these 1.2 m youngsters on average will need 800k homes (1.55 per home - pessimistic estimate)

- there are 1.4 million 10-20 year olds in Australia that will need around 700k homes

total internal demand (our 10-30 year old kids) for homes in next two decades 1.5 million
total "death" supply of existing homes in next two decades 3 million


do you think that 3 millions old households will not be able to provide enough homes over the next 20 years for these new generations?

not to mention that we will built someone around 3 more million new homes in mean while and immigrants (with current rate of immigration) will need around half of that number
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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raveswei
9 Jul 2011, 10:14 AM
- so there are 3 million old 65+ households in Australia (lone or two person)

- there are 1.6 million 20-30 year olds (1.25 m with no home - living with parents)

let's assume that these 1.2 m youngsters on average will need 800k homes (1.55 per home - pessimistic estimate)

- there are 1.4 million 10-20 year olds in Australia that will need around 700k homes

total internal demand (our 10-30 year old kids) for homes in next two decades 1.5 million
total "death" supply of existing homes in next two decades 3 million


do you think that 3 millions old households will not be able to provide enough homes over the next 20 years for these new generations?

not to mention that we will built someone around 3 more million new homes in mean while and immigrants (with current rate of immigration) will need around half of that number
We are going from 23% as lone occupants to 33% lone occupants.
How does that factor into your numbers?
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raveswei
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pauk
9 Jul 2011, 10:24 AM
We are going from 23% as lone occupants to 33% lone occupants.
How does that factor into your numbers?
some of these new lone households will be created from two 65+ person households that I already counted in,
some of the new lone household persons will be two young to die in next 20 years (they have 55+ now) and
some of them will be young lone households that I counted into pessimistic 1.5 young persons per home

however we look at this it is clear that next two decades will be good for Y generation housing opportunities and not so good for house prices. almost 1.5 million additional excess homes in next 20 years from existing supply does not promise price growth
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

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Sunder
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raveswei
9 Jul 2011, 10:14 AM
- so there are 3 million old 65+ households in Australia (lone or two person)

- there are 1.6 million 20-30 year olds (1.25 m with no home - living with parents)

let's assume that these 1.2 m youngsters on average will need 800k homes (1.55 per home - pessimistic estimate)

- there are 1.4 million 10-20 year olds in Australia that will need around 700k homes

total internal demand (our 10-30 year old kids) for homes in next two decades 1.5 million
total "death" supply of existing homes in next two decades 3 million


do you think that 3 millions old households will not be able to provide enough homes over the next 20 years for these new generations?

not to mention that we will built someone around 3 more million new homes in mean while and immigrants (with current rate of immigration) will need around half of that number
Just reading this on a tablet in a Cafe on a Saturday morning, so my brain is not entirely in gear, but...

At 65, your life expectancy is 85. That means in 20 years, only half the people will be expected to be dead.

On the ' best' case scenario, that frees up half the houses. On the 'worst', about 1/8th (since both halces of a couple need to be dead to free up the house)

My brain doesn't want to return to work till Monday, and I'm thinking this is getting macabre, so I'll just enjoy my coffee and think about it later.
Property speculation is a type of gambling... But everyone knows that in gambling, the house always wins in the end.
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Strindberg
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raveswei
9 Jul 2011, 10:14 AM
- so there are 3 million old 65+ households in Australia (lone or two person)

..followed by a heap of shit dependant on the truth of that statement
ABS Housing Occupancy and Costs 2007-8
http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/1E0AEE1969666F49CA2576650015C18D/$File/41300_2007-08.pdf

Page 45 table 8 (near the bottom)

Estimated Number of Households where reference person is 65-74 = 907,800

Estimated Number of Households where reference person is 75 and over = 803,400

Total households with reference person 65+ = 1,711,200

..and raveswei states it to be 3 million. The whole of his post and conclusions of future over supply are based on his own made up shit. And some here believe this shit.......




Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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raveswei
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Sunder
9 Jul 2011, 11:40 AM
Just reading this on a tablet in a Cafe on a Saturday morning, so my brain is not entirely in gear, but...

At 65, your life expectancy is 85. That means in 20 years, only half the people will be expected to be dead.



so you are saying that half of population that is 65 or older will live 20 years or more?
and none of people who are 55-65 will die in next 20 years?

do you know what life expectancy is?

65+ group includes people that are already over 65, including those who are already 85 or more - will half of them live 20 more years? :wacko:

it may be true that half of current 65 year olds will live for more than 20 years but it also means that 90% of people who are 75 and everybody who is 85 or over will die in next 20 years

In addition, according to latest life table, almost 35% of people who are now 55-65 will die in following 20 years?
(hint: current 55-65 generation is much larger than the same age generation 10 years ago - so 35% of that generation that will die is more than 40% of current 65-75 generation that will survive next 20 years)


Quote:
 
On the ' best' case scenario, that frees up half the houses. On the 'worst', about 1/8th (since both halces of a couple need to be dead to free up the house)


it will be interesting to see calculation for these 1/2 and 1/8th scenarios
hint: there are more 65+ lone households than couple households and more than 92% of all old persons are actually 66+
http://popping-bubble.blogspot.com/

Thinking of an Australian property speculator (PI):
Inaction = missing opportunities.
Missing opportunities = losing.
Too much thinking = inaction.
Thinking = missing opportunities.
Therefore thinking = losing.

disgraceful little man Frank Castle owes a house to Salvation Army

Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
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