Let me explain demographic swelling....hypothetically...
On a Island there are 2000 people who have 1000 babies per year. They all die exactly at 60 years of age. So the population grows to 60,000 and then stabilizes at 60,000 as 1000 births are matched by 1000 deaths.
Now a special pill is introduced and they now live until 100 and the population swells to 100,000 by 1000 extra people per year from the births, from the 60,000. The same birth rate of 1000 babies per year. 1000 deaths at the new age of 100.
So fertility and NOM is only 2/3 of our population growth.
get it? I know it is very simplistic, however one should understand demographic swelling, as that is what we are in as our longevity increases. If we all died at 50, what would our population be?
It is not all about NOM, births and deaths at all. Longevity increasing swells our absolute numbers.
Let me explain demographic swelling....hypothetically...
On a Island there are 2000 people who have 1000 babies per year. They all die exactly at 60 years of age. So the population grows to 60,000 and then stabilizes at 60,000 as 1000 births are matched by 1000 deaths.
Now a special pill is introduced and they now live until 100 and the population swells to 100,000 by 1000 extra people per year from the births, from the 60,000. The same birth rate of 1000 babies per year. 1000 deaths at the new age of 100.
So fertility and NOM is only 2/3 of our population growth.
get it? I know it is very simplistic, however one should understand demographic swelling, as that is what we are in as our longevity increases. If we all died at 50, what would our population be?
It is not all about NOM, births and deaths at all. Longevity increasing swells our absolute numbers.
are u advocating that some should die at age 50 ??
reminds me of the joke why do men die before women .... cause they want to ...
now going back to the anaylsis, why cant we have population stability and child raising credits, ie 2 kids per couple and then if you only have one you can sell the credit to another more fertile couple and even adopt in if you cannot have 2 of your own ... the your philiosophy could work.
It’s not getting any smarter out there. You have to come to terms with stupidity, and make it work for you - Frank Zappa
are u advocating that some should die at age 50 ??
reminds me of the joke why do men die before women .... cause they want to ...
now going back to the anaylsis, why cant we have population stability and child raising credits, ie 2 kids per couple and then if you only have one you can sell the credit to another more fertile couple and even adopt in if you cannot have 2 of your own ... the your philiosophy could work.
1. Die at 50? No our lonjevity is a good thing and living longer is a great accomplishment for mankind.
2. We have been below replacement fertility now for over 35 years and we should, and are, encouraging more births.
3. In the next 35 years our death rates double, which could lead to zero natural growth if our fertility remains below 2.1
4. The example was given so that you could understand that population growth in not just about our natural growth and our NOM. It is 1/3 our swelling, as it is for the aging nations.
5. Our population is likely to peak around 2040 as our immigration numbers decline due to the fact that the largest voting block in Australia will be aged. They move towards anti-immigration voting and this will help see our population peak and then start its decline. I think we may have a Liberal govt now for at least the next 30 years just based on demographic voting patterns.
BABY boomers are facing homelessness as part of an emerging housing crisis for older Australians, a new report has found. The report, Ageing In What Place, by welfare agency Hanover, found increasing numbers of older Melburnians are at risk of ending up on public housing waiting lists or sleeping rough. Hanover research and service development general manager Shelley Mallett, who co-wrote the report, said many older people were facing homelessness for the first time.
"There are rising rates of older people in private rental, and low incomes are making it very difficult for them to afford private rental in their old age," she said.
"These are people who have usually been working all their life, and they've never relied on welfare before," she said.
Older people were increasingly finding themselves at risk of becoming homeless, often after a major health concern, or the death of a spouse or divorce left them unable to pay their mortgage or rent, Ms Mallett said. With an ageing population, the problem is only expected to get worse, she said.
The demand for public housing among people over 65 is expected to increase by 76 per cent by 2016, according to the National Housing Supply Council.
By 2028, the demand for private and public rental properties among older people is expected to increase by 120 per cent. A federal government study in 2007 found 70 per cent of homeless people aged over 60 were homeless for the first time.
Housing for the Aged Action Group tenancy worker Jeff Fiedler, who is based in Melbourne, agreed older people were more vulnerable. "Pensioners are the least able to cope with rising rental prices," he said.
In some instances, housing instability caused older people to be hospitalised or even attempt suicide, he said. END
Comments... 1.2 million Australias will celebrate their 65th birthday by 2015. 80% will require full or part pensions.
BABY boomers are facing homelessness as part of an emerging housing crisis for older Australians, a new report has found. The report, Ageing In What Place, by welfare agency Hanover, found increasing numbers of older Melburnians are at risk of ending up on public housing waiting lists or sleeping rough. Hanover research and service development general manager Shelley Mallett, who co-wrote the report, said many older people were facing homelessness for the first time.
"There are rising rates of older people in private rental, and low incomes are making it very difficult for them to afford private rental in their old age," she said.
"These are people who have usually been working all their life, and they've never relied on welfare before," she said.
Older people were increasingly finding themselves at risk of becoming homeless, often after a major health concern, or the death of a spouse or divorce left them unable to pay their mortgage or rent, Ms Mallett said. With an ageing population, the problem is only expected to get worse, she said.
The demand for public housing among people over 65 is expected to increase by 76 per cent by 2016, according to the National Housing Supply Council.
By 2028, the demand for private and public rental properties among older people is expected to increase by 120 per cent. A federal government study in 2007 found 70 per cent of homeless people aged over 60 were homeless for the first time.
Housing for the Aged Action Group tenancy worker Jeff Fiedler, who is based in Melbourne, agreed older people were more vulnerable. "Pensioners are the least able to cope with rising rental prices," he said.
In some instances, housing instability caused older people to be hospitalised or even attempt suicide, he said. END
Comments... 1.2 million Australias will celebrate their 65th birthday by 2015. 80% will require full or part pensions.
Yes, its a big problem for all those oldies who thought renting was cheaper than buying, so they never bought.
BABY boomers are facing homelessness as part of an emerging housing crisis for older Australians, a new report has found. The report, Ageing In What Place, by welfare agency Hanover, found increasing numbers of older Melburnians are at risk of ending up on public housing waiting lists or sleeping rough. Hanover research and service development general manager Shelley Mallett, who co-wrote the report, said many older people were facing homelessness for the first time.
"There are rising rates of older people in private rental, and low incomes are making it very difficult for them to afford private rental in their old age," she said.
"These are people who have usually been working all their life, and they've never relied on welfare before," she said.
Older people were increasingly finding themselves at risk of becoming homeless, often after a major health concern, or the death of a spouse or divorce left them unable to pay their mortgage or rent, Ms Mallett said. With an ageing population, the problem is only expected to get worse, she said.
The demand for public housing among people over 65 is expected to increase by 76 per cent by 2016, according to the National Housing Supply Council.
By 2028, the demand for private and public rental properties among older people is expected to increase by 120 per cent. A federal government study in 2007 found 70 per cent of homeless people aged over 60 were homeless for the first time.
Housing for the Aged Action Group tenancy worker Jeff Fiedler, who is based in Melbourne, agreed older people were more vulnerable. "Pensioners are the least able to cope with rising rental prices," he said.
In some instances, housing instability caused older people to be hospitalised or even attempt suicide, he said. END
Comments... 1.2 million Australias will celebrate their 65th birthday by 2015. 80% will require full or part pensions.
Yes, its a big problem for all those oldies who thought renting was cheaper than buying, so they never bought.
You are such a wanker mate!
"Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble." - Paul Krugman 2002
Population momentum refers to population growth at the national level which would occur even if levels of childbearing immediately declined to replacement level.[1] For countries with above-replacement fertility (greater than 2.1 children per woman), population momentum represents natural increase to the population. For below-replacement countries, momentum corresponds to a population decline. Momentum occurs because older cohorts differ in absolute size from those cohorts currently bearing children, which impacts the immediate birth and death rates in the population which determine the intrinsic rate of growth. Formal demographers refer to population momentum as the size of the resulting stationary-equivalent population relative to the current size of the population. Population momentum has implications for population policy for a number of reasons. First with respect to high-fertility countries in the developing world, population momentum instructs us that these countries will continue to grow despite large and rapid declines in fertility. Second with respect to lowest-low fertility countries in Europe, momentum implies that these countries may experience population decline even if they bring their fertility levels up to replacement. Finally, population momentum shows us that replacement level fertility is a long term concept rather than an indication of current population growth rates. Depending on the extant age structure, a fertility rate of 2 children per woman may correspond to either short-term growth or decline.
Why do so many think that population growth is a problem?
In TED Conversations, Hans Rosling, professor of International Health and co-founder of the outstanding interactive website Gapminder, asks, “Why do so many think that population growth is an important issue for the environment? Don’t they know the facts of demographics?” He partially answers his questions: "We face many environmental challenges, but the foremost is the risk for a severe climate change due to CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.
I meet so many that think population growth is a major problem in regard to climate change. But the number of children born per year in the world has stopped growing since 1990. The total number of children below 15 years of age in the world are now relatively stable around 2 billion. The populations with an increasing amount of children born are fully compensated by other populations with a decreasing number of children born. A final increase of 2 billion people is expected until the world population peaks at about 9 billion in 2050. But the increase with 2 billion is comprised by already existing persons growing up to become adults, and old people like me (+60 years). So when I hear people saying that population growth has to be stopped before reaching 9 billion, I get really scared, because the only way to achieve that is by killing.
So the addition of another 2 billion in number constitutes a final increase of less than 30%, and it is inevitable. Beyond 2050 the world population may start to decrease if women across the world will have, on average, less than 2 children. But that decrease will be slow.
So the fact is that we have to plan for a common life on Earth with 7-9 billion fellow human beings, and the environmental challenge must be met by a more effective use of energy and a much more green production of energy.
The only thing that can change this is if the last 1-2 poorest billion do not get access to school, electricity, basic health services and family planning. Only if the horror of poverty remains will we become more than 9 billion.
So my question is: Are these facts known? If not, why?
It is important because placing emphasis on population diverts attention from what has to be done to limit the climate crisis."
And here is a curious statistic found via Stable Population Party of Australia facebook page:
"In 2006, almost one in five (19%) of the overseas-born population were aged 65 and over compared with 11% of the Australian-born population."
Immigration doesn't seem to be the answer and people are emmigrating because this FUBAR country has turned it's back on it's own children in pursuit of the almighty dollar and is becoming little better than the third world countries the majority of it's new immigrants come from.
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