The ghost of Thomas Malthus hovers over unsustainable global population increases Mike Steketee From: The Australian July 02, 2011 12:00AM
THE world's population will pass seven billion on October 31, according to present projections. It is a milestone but one with a danger sign attached.
Considering the warnings about world famine by Thomas Malthus (1798) and the limits to growth by the Club of Rome (1972), we haven't done too badly so far. Living standards have risen, though very unevenly, to levels not conceived of by previous generations.
It looks all the more impressive considering how population growth has accelerated. When Malthus wrote his Essay on the Principle of Population, the world was a few years short of reaching its first billion people. It took another 130 years, to 1930, to get to two billion. Then we really started picking up the pace, taking 30 years to get to three billion (1960), 14 years to four billion (1974), 13 years to five billion (1987), 12 years to six billion (1999) and now another 12 years to seven billion.
Still, we have been able to take comfort that population growth looked like peaking at about nine billion by the middle of this century and falling after that.
At least that was until the UN Population Division released its latest two-yearly projections in May. It has increased its 2050 figure by 156 million to 9.3 billion from its estimate two years earlier, and by 390 million since 2002. Instead of population growth stopping in the middle of the century, it is projecting merely a marked slowing down, to reach 10.1 billion by 2100.
The revisions are due mainly to increased estimates of fertility, particularly in Africa. That is not to say birth rates are rising, just that they are not falling as rapidly as previously assumed. Just how critical this is to the projections is brought home by the UN estimate that, if the world fertility rate were to stay at the same level as the past five years, we would be heading for almost 27 billion people by 2100. Compared with Asia's population growth of 1 per cent a year, Africa's is 2.3 per cent, with a population rising from one billion to a projected 3.6 billion in 2100.
The figures suggest a very different world by the start of the next century, with India by far the most populous country with almost 1.6 billion people, compared with 1.2 billion now, China shrinking from 1.3 billion to 941 million and Nigeria growing from 158 million to 730 million to pass the US as the third most populous country. Afghanistan, with 32 million now, grows to 111 million, hopefully not all of them members of the Taliban or al-Qa'ida.
But we should not get too carried away with such figures. Peter McDonald, a demographer at the Australian National University and president of the professional body the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, tells Inquirer the latest revision is significant, with the UN suggesting a population peak of about 10 billion rather than nine billion. But it is based on assumptions that may not prove to be correct.
"You can probably do reasonable forecasts over a 20-year timeframe but beyond that it is just guesswork, essentially," he says. "Really, they have no idea what the trajectory of fertility will be in Africa, Afghanistan or Pakistan."
For Australia, the UN comes up with quite different figures to those from the federal Treasury, with ours not reaching the 36 million projected by Treasury for 2050 until a half century later. McDonald says that is because the UN makes some "fairly strange" assumptions: that we move to zero net migration, as well as to replacement level fertility. But then far too much emphasis has been placed on Treasury's projection as well. Only two years before its latest figures, it projected a population of 28.5 million by 2050.
That shows how small changes in assumptions can telescope into big changes in projections the further we look into the future. But nor does that mean we should ignore the figures. Rapid population growth is occurring in the countries that can least afford it, or at least where it poses the greatest risks. McDonald has tended towards optimism.
"I guess I have never been a real Malthusian," he says.
"I have taken the view we will muddle through and technology will take care of things."
But the sheer numbers, poverty and lack of development in parts of Africa are challenging his optimism. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing rapid urbanisation, with projections of 25 million people in cities such as the Congolese capital Kinshasa, making them hugely vulnerable to food shortages.
"We really have to turn things around fast, in my view, and that means family planning and education and economic development," McDonald says.
In particular, he says, we need a repeat of the family planning programs that were highly successful in Asia in the 1970s and 80s. Not just China, with its draconian one-child policy, but Indonesia and many other countries in Asia have brought fertility rates down sharply through public health-based family programs.
"Women wanted to use these programs," he says.
"Education and rising affluence and aspiration are all part of the package."
The reduced emphasis on family planning coincided with the AIDS epidemic, which led to predictions of Africa's population falling, an example of the brutal complacency in the West about population growth in Africa.
"I just think it is quite a dangerous situation in Africa," McDonald says.
"It is a hard thing to say, but if there is a huge famine in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and millions and millions of people die, it may not affect us all that much. That is the way the broader world will look at it."
McDonald says a new international commitment to family planning requires the involvement of international agencies and individual governments.
And he argues there is plenty to do in our immediate region.
"Development in East Timor, Papua New Guinea and the Solomons is definitely held back by high population growth. They are countries in which we should be very active."
East Timor's fertility rate of 5.7 is above that of many African nations and on UN projections its population will rise from 1.2 million to 3.2 million by 2050.
PNG has a fertility rate of 4.1 and a projected population rise from 6.8 million to 13.4 million.
The Solomons' fertility rate of 4.4 will see its population increase from 500,000 to 1.2 million.
Perhaps human ingenuity will see us meet the challenge of population growth, as it has in the past. But the hurdles will be greater. Julian Cribb, author of The Coming Famine, argues that the difference with the 60s, which gave us the green revolution, is the world faces looming scarcities of just about everything necessary to produce high food yields.
"In 1900 every human had 8ha of land to sustain them; today the number is 1.63 and falling," he wrote last year.
"[The] challenge facing the coming generation of farmers is to double the global food supply using half the water on far less land and with increasingly depleted soils, without fossil fuels, with increasingly scarce and costly fertiliser and chemicals [and] under the hammer of climate change."
If we do not find the answers, perhaps famine, disease or climate change will provide their own solution to our population problem. There is always resistance to change, but going on as before does not seem to be an option.
So natural growth does not change much over time? wtf They obviously do not know that the deaths rates are projected to double in the next 25 years, bringing our natural growth crashing down.
His thought on demographics are - World population will peak in 2050 (generally accepted) - Countries will recognise People are the "scarce resource" - Governments will compete vigorously for people - even pay people to immigrate - Wars will be fought for labour (he argues Japan will again invade China for this reason). - The demographic problem will be the ultimate triumph for Democracy - true freedom + information will be the catalyst for immigration - The winners will be USA, UK, Free Europe, Australia, NZ, Canada, Brazil possibly India etc - The losers will be Russia, China, etc - Notes the internet will have the same human impact as Gutenbergs printing press in 1440 which is one of the catalysts of the Renaissance. This in turn will create enormous growth and wealth even without population growth (similar to the Renaissance).
BB I have not read the book, so I will add it to my reading list. Quite simply the ageing, or increased longevity, is unprecedented in history. Populations have grown and shrunk before, however not aged to such high life expectancies and coupled with the baby boom, it will be uncharted waters. Note that the baby boom happened at different times in different countries, Japan first and last will be India. I am very optimistic about peak population and what that will actually mean to our kids. From rearview mirror policy to front windscrreen planning. Wow!
I think we are already competing for skilled migrants and I have proposed that migrant doctors get a rent free house in regional/bush areas, that if they stay there for 5 years, becomes theirs at no cost.
I also agree that the internet and our NBN will be a true revolution in GDP possibilities specifically for us. It will be like we are the paint shop of the new Renaissance.
I also agree that the ageing of Russia and China will be profound. Russia is projected to nealy half its population and China will suffer under its dependency ratios.
I will keep this topic/thread just for demographic discussions and questions.
BB I have not read the book, so I will add it to my reading list. Quite simply the ageing, or increased longevity, is unprecedented in history. Populations have grown and shrunk before, however not aged to such high life expectancies and coupled with the baby boom, it will be uncharted waters. Note that the baby boom happened at different times in different countries, Japan first and last will be India. I am very optimistic about peak population and what that will actually mean to our kids. From rearview mirror policy to front windscrreen planning. Wow!
I think we are already competing for skilled migrants and I have proposed that migrant doctors get a rent free house in regional/bush areas, that if they stay there for 5 years, becomes theirs at no cost.
I also agree that the internet and our NBN will be a true revolution in GDP possibilities specifically for us. It will be like we are the paint shop of the new Renaissance.
I also agree that the ageing of Russia and China will be profound. Russia is projected to nealy half its population and China will suffer under its dependency ratios.
I will keep this topic/thread just for demographic discussions and questions.
Thanks Pauk
Interesting.
Do you really think we are competing for skilled migrants? If we are, it does not feel like we are competing very well.
Do you really think we are competing for skilled migrants? If we are, it does not feel like we are competing very well.
If you were a graduating Indian doctor, would you look at the US as being more affordable and a better chance of owning a home? I would....
Australia is more influenced by international migration than almost any country in the world. However, since the 1990s there has been a dramatic change in the global migration context which has seen the four ‘traditional' immigration countries joined by more than 30 other countries which are actively competing for immigrants, especially skilled immigrants. Two major developments have caused this change. The first is demographic. In these countries low fertility and ageing will result in the workforce age population peaking in 2010 at 500 million and thereafter declining to 475 million in 2025. The second is a shift in economies which is placing a premium on skill and talent and producing a talent war as countries vie to attract the brightest and the best. http://gisca.adelaide.edu.au/projects/scanlon_foundation.html
16 November 2010 Number of Chinese students applying for a US Visa increases
The number of US Visas issued to Chinese students to study at US universities has increased by 30 per cent over last year, placing China as the top country of origin for international students.
US Visa
China is now the top country of origin for international students in the US.
The number of Chinese students increased from more than 98,000 in 2009 to nearly 128,000 in October 2010, according to the "2010 Open Doors Report" published on the US Embassy in China website.
Overall, the total number of international students with a US Visa to study at colleges and universities increased by 3 per cent to a record high of nearly 691,000 in the 2009/2010 academic year.
The 30 per cent increase in Chinese student enrolment was the main contributor to this year's growth, and now Chinese students account for more than 18 percent of the total international students.
16 November 2010 Number of Chinese students applying for a US Visa increases
The number of US Visas issued to Chinese students to study at US universities has increased by 30 per cent over last year, placing China as the top country of origin for international students.
US Visa
China is now the top country of origin for international students in the US.
The number of Chinese students increased from more than 98,000 in 2009 to nearly 128,000 in October 2010, according to the "2010 Open Doors Report" published on the US Embassy in China website.
Overall, the total number of international students with a US Visa to study at colleges and universities increased by 3 per cent to a record high of nearly 691,000 in the 2009/2010 academic year.
The 30 per cent increase in Chinese student enrolment was the main contributor to this year's growth, and now Chinese students account for more than 18 percent of the total international students.
Let me correct one thing Pauk - it is extremely difficult for H1B visa holders (or any normal US work visa holders for that matter) to get a Green Card. The article is truthful but very circumspect on this point.
But I believe the US would be a more attractive destination for intl students anyway for lots of reasons. I think Aus benefitted for a while due to low AUD and the much easier immigration process that existed here. This value prop has been eroded quite a bit.
16 November 2010 Number of Chinese students applying for a US Visa increases
The number of US Visas issued to Chinese students to study at US universities has increased by 30 per cent over last year, placing China as the top country of origin for international students.
US Visa
China is now the top country of origin for international students in the US.
The number of Chinese students increased from more than 98,000 in 2009 to nearly 128,000 in October 2010, according to the "2010 Open Doors Report" published on the US Embassy in China website.
Overall, the total number of international students with a US Visa to study at colleges and universities increased by 3 per cent to a record high of nearly 691,000 in the 2009/2010 academic year.
The 30 per cent increase in Chinese student enrolment was the main contributor to this year's growth, and now Chinese students account for more than 18 percent of the total international students.
Let me correct one thing Pauk - it is extremely difficult for H1B visa holders (or any normal US work visa holders for that matter) to get a Green Card. The article is truthful but very circumspect on this point.
But I believe the US would be a more attractive destination for intl students anyway for lots of reasons. I think Aus benefitted for a while due to low AUD and the much easier immigration process that existed here. This value prop has been eroded quite a bit.
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