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GFC II GFC2 New Global Financial Crisis Mark 2 Alert; Almost half of Australians believe world is on cusp of another financial crisis
Topic Started: 27 Jun 2011, 01:21 PM (14,291 Views)
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http://www.smh.com.au/business/back-to-the-future-and-on-the-brink-of-another-crisis-20110805-1ifdc.html

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Back to the future and on the brink of another crisis

Larry Elliott

August 6, 2011

There was a whiff of August 2007 in the air this week as financial markets tumbled around the world. More than a whiff, in fact. The familiar stench of panic was back as shares fell heavily, bond yields in Spain and Italy rose and the search for a safe haven sent the price of gold to a new record level.

Banks took an especially severe pummelling amid fears that they were exposed to the two big concerns of investors: a break-up in the eurozone and a double-dip recession in the global economy.

In a week of anniversaries, it was a day that conjured up all the wrong sort of memories. It was 97 years since Britain declared war on Germany, and the resulting financial turmoil meant the stock market, which had closed at the end of July did not reopen for business until early 1915.

Yet even in the month or so after the assassination at Sarajevo the movements in financial markets were less violent than they were on Thursday.

More recently, it is almost four years since an announcement by the French bank BNP Paribas that it was temporarily suspending three hedge funds specialising in US sub-prime mortgage debt led to financial paralysis.

Banks, it was discovered, had lent unwisely, were loaded up with toxic derivatives that were vulnerable to falling American house prices, and had far too little capital set aside for a rainy day. On August 9, 2007, the heavens opened.

On the face of it, the banks are in better shape than they were when Northern Rock became the first major British high street lender to suffer a bank run since Overend & Gurney in the 1860s. They have been forced to build up capital reserves and to hold a higher proportion of their assets in liquid form - financial instruments such as government bonds that can be quickly turned into cash.

Financial regulators have spent the past four years crawling all over the banks, making up for the neglect in the days leading up to the crisis, when supervision was far too lax.

Britain's Financial Services Authority, the European Banking Authority, and America's Federal Reserve know where all the bodies are buried in their respective banks. In theory, at least. One of the parallels between August 2007 and August 2011 is the shiftiness of those running the show, a sense that they are not letting on all they know for fear of creating more panic.

The dwindling band of optimists point to differences with four years ago. Many companies, especially the bigger ones, are in rude financial health after cutting costs aggressively. Parts of the emerging world, such as China and Russia, are growing strongly and may act as the locomotive for the rest of the world.

In the West, interest rates are low and budget deficits high: policymakers have pressed the pedal to the floor in an attempt to get their economies moving.

But the ultra-loose state of macro-economic policy cuts both ways. Policymakers were the heroes of Meltdown 1, thumbing through their copies of Keynes's General Theory to come up with the measures deemed necessary to prevent the global banking system from imploding.

But if the next few weeks see Meltdown 2, the policy options will be limited. Interest rates are already at rock-bottom levels while the flirtation with Keynesian fiscal policies was brief.

As one analyst put it, the monetary and fiscal guns are not obviously full of bullets. Thursday's mayhem will fan speculation that the Federal Reserve will respond with a third dose of electronic money creation through the process known as quantitative easing.

Not that the $ 2 trillion the US central bank has already pumped into the economy appears to have had much effect, apart from to provide more casino chips for speculators and to push up food and energy bills around the world.

There was a colossal stimulus provided in the winter of 2008-09 but the results have been disappointing. Cheap money and big budget deficits certainly averted a second Great Depression, a very real prospect three years ago when no bank looked safe and factories were lying idle, and that is success of a sort.

But it has not produced the normal snap back from recession seen during the post-Second World War era. Indeed, the deepest recession since the 1930s has been followed by the feeblest recovery. Even the lowest official interest rate since the Bank of England was founded in 1694 has not been able to persuade consumers to load up with more borrowing.

In America and Britain, households have been tightening their belts as wages have failed to keep pace with prices. The downturn of 2008 was a different sort of recession - one caused by banks and individuals borrowing far more than was good for them, rather than one caused by central banks raising interest rates in response to higher inflation. It's a different sort of recovery as well - weak, stuttering and at risk of being aborted at any moment.

In one sense, the mood is quite different from August 2007. Back then, the financiers and the politicians spent the first six months after the crisis broke in a state of denial, forever expecting the return of business as usual.

They didn't really get it until the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Financial markets were taken completely unawares, but this is a week that has seen the US taken to the brink of debt default, a deal to safeguard the single currency start to unravel within a fortnight of it being agreed, and a drip feed of downbeat economic news. Only a mug would call Thursday's events a ''Lehmans moment''.

Stock markets tend to anticipate change. They rise at the bottom of the cycle in anticipation that economic conditions will improve, and they fall when they assume that things are about to take a turn for the worse, which is what they expect now.

It is not just that growth appears to be flagging everywhere, even in China. It is the concern, cruelly exposed in Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain and even the US, about the solvency of nation states.

Back in 2007, the one comfort for markets was that a banking crisis never became a sovereign debt crisis. Now it has, and markets are scared witless as a result.
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/aug/07/global-financial-crisis-key-stages

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Global financial crisis: five key stages 2007-2011

From sub-prime mortgages in 2007 to the newly downgraded US debt status, the latest crisis point is unlikely to be the last

9 August 2007. 15 September 2008. 2 April 2009. 9 May 2010. 5 August 2011. From sub-prime to downgrade, the five stages of the most serious crisis to hit the global economy since the Great Depression can be found in those dates.

Phase one on 9 August 2007 began with the seizure in the banking system precipitated by BNP Paribas announcing that it was ceasing activity in three hedge funds that specialised in US mortgage debt. This was the moment it became clear that there were tens of trillions of dollars worth of dodgy derivatives swilling round which were worth a lot less than the bankers had previously imagined.

Nobody knew how big the losses were or how great the exposure of individual banks actually was, so trust evaporated overnight and banks stopped doing business with each other.

It took a year for the financial crisis to come to a head but it did so on 15 September 2008 when the US government allowed the investment bank Lehman Brothers to go bankrupt. Up to that point, it had been assumed that governments would always step in to bail out any bank that got into serious trouble: the US had done so by finding a buyer for Bear Stearns while the UK had nationalised Northern Rock.

When Lehman Brothers went down, the notion that all banks were "too big to fail" no longer held true, with the result that every bank was deemed to be risky. Within a month, the threat of a domino effect through the global financial system forced western governments to inject vast sums of capital into their banks to prevent them collapsing. The banks were rescued in the nick of time, but it was too late to prevent the global economy from going into freefall. Credit flows to the private sector were choked off at the same time as consumer and business confidence collapsed. All this came after a period when high oil prices had persuaded central banks that the priority was to keep interest rates high as a bulwark against inflation rather than to cut them in anticipation of the financial crisis spreading to the real economy.

The winter of 2008-09 saw co-ordinated action by the newly formed G20 group of developed and developing nations in an attempt to prevent recession turning into a slump. Interest rates were cut to the bone, fiscal stimulus packages of varying sizes announced, and electronic money created through quantitative easing. At the London G20 summit on 2 April 2009, world leaders committed themselves to a $5tn (£3tn) fiscal expansion, an extra $1.1tn of resources to help the International Monetary Fund and other global institutions boost jobs and growth, and to reform of the banks. From this point, when the global economy was on the turn, international co-operation started to disintegrate as individual countries pursued their own agendas.

9 May 2010 marked the point at which the focus of concern switched from the private sector to the public sector. By the time the IMF and the European Union announced they would provide financial help to Greece, the issue was no longer the solvency of banks but the solvency of governments. Budget deficits had ballooned during the recession, mainly as a result of lower tax receipts and higher non-discretionary welfare spending, but also because of the fiscal packages announced in the winter of 2008-09. Greece had unique problems as it covered up the dire state of its public finances and had difficulties in collecting taxes, but other countries started to become nervous about the size of their budget deficits. Austerity became the new watchword, affecting policy decisions in the UK, the eurozone and, most recently in the US, the country that stuck with expansionary fiscal policy the longest.

Last Friday, the morphing of a private debt crisis into a sovereign debt crisis was complete when the rating agency, S&P, waited for Wall Street to shut up shop for the weekend before announcing that America's debt would no longer be classed as top-notch triple A. This could hardly have come at a worse time, and not just because last week saw the biggest sell-off in stock markets since late 2008. Policymakers are confronted with a slowing global economy and a systemic crisis in one of its component parts, Europe. To the extent that they are united, they are united in stupidity, wedded to blanket austerity that will make matters worse not better. And they have yet to tackle the issue that lay behind the 2007 crisis in the first place, the imbalances between the big creditor nations such as China and Germany, and big debtors like the US.

In the circumstances, it is hard to be wildly optimistic about how events will play out. Markets are bound to remain highly jittery, although it seems unlikely that American bond yields will rocket as a result of the S&P downgrade. Japan lost its triple A rating long ago and has national debt well in excess of 200% of GDP but its bond yields remain extremely low. The reason for that is simple: Japan's growth prospects are poor.

So are America's, which is why bond yields will remain low in what is still, for the time being, the world's biggest economy. The dressing down given to Washington by Beijing following the S&P announcement was, however, telling. Growth rates of close to 10% mean that the moment China overtakes the US is getting closer all the time, and the communists in the east now feel bold enough to tell the capitalists in the west how to run their economies. Whatever it means for financial markets this week, 5 August 2011 will be remembered as the day when US hegemony was lost.

All this is terrible news for Barack Obama. He has not delivered economic recovery. The US is drowning in negative equity and foreclosed homes. No president since Roosevelt has won an election with unemployment as high as it is today. Fiscal policy will be tightened over the coming months as tax breaks expire and public spending is cut. The Federal Reserve only has the blunt instrument of QE with which to stimulate the economy, and will only be able to deploy it after a softening up process for the markets that will take several months. On top of that, Obama will now be branded as the president who presided over the national humiliation of a debt downgrade. He looks more like Jimmy Carter than FDR.

Not that the Europeans should get too smug about this, because what we are witnessing is not just the decline of the US but the decline of the west. One response to last week's meltdown was the announcement of talks between the G7 – the US, the UK, Germany, Italy, France, Canada and Japan – but while this would have been appropriate 20 years ago it is not going to calm markets today. Holding a G7 meeting without China today is like expecting the League of Nations without the US to tackle totalitarianism in the 1930s.

There is no happy ending to this story. At best there will be a long period of weak growth and high unemployment as individuals and banks pay down the excessive levels of debt accumulated in the bubble years. At worst, the global economy will be plunged back into recession next year as the US goes backwards and the euro comes apart at the seams. The second, gloomier scenario, looks a lot more likely now than it did a week ago.

Why? Because there is no international co-operation. There are plans for austerity but no plans for growth. Even countries that could borrow money for fiscal stimulus packages reluctant to do so. Europe lacks the political will to force the pace of integration necessary to avoid disintegration of the single currency.

Commodity prices are coming down, but that is the only good news. We are less than halfway through the crisis that began on 9 August 2007. That crisis has just entered a dangerous new phase.
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http://www.smh.com.au/business/second-gfc-has-become-their-debt-to-society-20110810-1imql.html

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Second GFC has become their debt to society

August 11, 2011

WHERE will the money come from this time?

In this global financial crisis Mark II, the sovereign debt crisis, things really are different. During GFC I, the debt lay in the hands of companies and people. It was the governments that bailed them out. Now we have GFC II, who will bail out the governments?

Thankfully, the Australian government doesn't have much debt, but Europe and the United States do, and our prosperity is, to a great degree, intertwined with theirs.

We have a lot riding on the outcome of policy in America and Europe, as does China, who in turn we have even more riding on these days.

Besides the government rescue and stimulus programs during the GFC, which bailed out banks and others considered ''too big to fail'', corporations around the world went cap-in-hand to their equity markets big time.

In Australia, floats had completely dried up but secondary market capital raisings totalled a record $106 billion in 2009 alone as most of corporate Australia rushed to recapitalise.

The institutions, large funds managers, bailed out the corporates. Ironically the biggest of these are owned or controlled by the banks and the banks had been underpinned by government guarantees over their funding and deposits.

Now, Australian companies are mostly in fine shape, cashed up with low debt levels and ready, for the most part, to withstand sluggish economic conditions should things get tighter.

This is largely the case in the US too, where there is $US2.5 trillion ($A2.4 trillion) swishing around on corporate balance sheets. The government, on the other hand, would be broke but for another well-reported rise in its debt ceiling last month from $US14.3 trillion.

The furious debate between Republicans and Democrats, which held America to ransom until an eleventh-hour reprieve and paved the way for the country's first credit-rating downgrade, provides the key to the next bailout.

Republicans argued that cuts to government spending were the sole answer to restoring the budget while Democrats wanted to raise taxes. Spending cuts versus revenue rises: those are the two options.

Just as the corporate world recapitalised via placements and rights issues, the public world needs to recapitalise.

Governments can hardly have a rights issue, in the traditional sense, but they do have the choice to either raise taxes or cut spending.

This option will become even more perplexing for administrations in Europe and the US as time marches on. The London riots, which have now spread across Britain, are being blamed on the Tory government's austerity programs.

Although much of the disorder comes down to pure looting and vandalism, the cause of the mob has arguably been dignified by cuts to social programs. They can point to government bailing out their mates at the top end of town.

Right or wrong, the mob now has its raison d'etre. The rich are still rich but the poor are poorer.

Washington would be looking at this with some discomfort. Corporate lobbying and the Republican control of Congress makes it easier to envision violence on the streets than the introduction of higher taxes.

In the debt ceiling fight, the Tea Party was prepared to wreck America's economic credentials by threatening default in order to force the Obama government to capitulate and agree to spending cuts over tax hikes.

The right wing is violently opposed to lifting taxes. But the spectre of real violence on the streets if social programs are cut, and recession deepens, is real.

Unemployment on the official numbers still hovers above 9 per cent. The likelihood of a double-dip recession is increasing.

The flip side of raising taxes is damage to demand. That's also the flip side to spending cuts. Either will expedite the slide back into recession.

Europe faces the Cameron-government dilemma too. It's not a matter of if but when Greece defaults. The industrious countries will not carry the fiscally lazy ones forever. Germany and France would let the euro-zone laggards go if the choice came down to social unrest in their own countries.

And they may have to make those choices soon. When governments need to be bailed out, where will the money come from? Where is the money? Big corporates and rich people.

It's not a palatable proposition for either the rich or the corporations but governments on either side of the Atlantic are likely to hit them up soon. Call it the government rights issue if you like.

They may try cutting spending first but images of burning buildings in London will now reside for some time in the collective consciousness of leaders in every indebted nation.

Economics and the GFC have now well and truly criss-crossed with social policy.
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http://www.smh.com.au/business/how-global-meltdown-is-affecting-us-20110811-1inxo.html

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How global meltdown is affecting us

August 11, 2011 - 12:45PM

The Australian sharemarket plummeted 5 per cent in one hour this week, then staged an $80 billion turnaround to finish the day more than 1 per cent up. What’s happening?

Falling markets globally indicate a change of sentiment among investors, who see a bleaker outlook for the earnings of companies. They see shares representing a lower expected return with a greater risk. Such a change of heart can come about for a variety of reasons. In this case, it’s all about government debt problems, and fears of recession, in the US and Europe.

Why was Australia’s the only market in the developed world to post a gain that day?

Our market is dominated by resource companies and banks. Australia’s banks, unlike some overseas, have great fundamentals. They’re extremely well capitalised and have low levels of bad debts. The miners are making huge profits which look like stretching on year after year into the future because of the massive demand for our minerals from China and India, as well as more traditional buyers like Japan and Korea. Our market is heavily influenced by the one part of the world that really is booming - Asia.

But surely we’re not immune from the global convulsions?

Of course not. Our market still follows short-term trends overseas and, looking further out, the strength in Asia is vulnerable both to weakness in developed economies and any failure in the world’s financial system. But we’re much better placed to weather the storm than most.

Is the underlying problem simply too much debt - in the US and some European countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain?

Debt is a big part of it, but it’s not the whole story. The latest economic data, including gross domestic product (GDP) figures released last week, show the US economy is not picking up as strongly as some people had hoped. Now they’re starting to accept they may have been too optimistic.

And the moves to cut budget deficits in Europe and the US will be an additional drag on growth in those major parts of the world’s economy. You can see it as the opposite of the fiscal stimulus that kept Australia out of recession in 2008 and 2009.

Didn’t US President Barack Obama re-assure the world by getting 11th-hour approval from Congress to lift the debt ceiling and prevent America from defaulting on its debt for the first time ever?

He did, but once that crisis was solved, people turned their attention back to the real economy and saw it was not looking too rosy. In fact, America was teetering on the brink of recession again. And the agreement to cut spending, although it will help to bring debt under control eventually, just increases that risk in the short term.

Couldn’t the US government help by spending its way back to recovery, like Australia did?

That’s where the debt mountain comes in. The buck has to stop somewhere. Years of slack fiscal policy under the George W Bush administration left the US vulnerable. The long-term budget outlook was made worse by spending on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and by big tax cuts. The US was already behind the eight-ball when the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008 came along.

The government spent more, just like we did in Australia with the stimulus package. But the big difference was the US was already in debt. So, the budget deficit got even bigger and that just added even faster to the debt. Congress should have dug its heels in over the deficit five or six years ago.

What’s the most optimistic scenario?

China, and Asia generally, keep growing. The US economy grows slowly for a few years before gradually building momentum. In Europe, Greece and other countries manage their debt, gradually whittling it down just as the UK did after World War II. It’s a muddle-through scenario. There’s no magic wand that can wave debt away.

And the most pessimistic?

Governments continue to ignore the debt problem and fail to act. The US Congress can’t agree to a debt reduction program. Companies and households remain focused on reducing their debt rather than spending and investing. Share prices and housing prices fall and we slide back into a recession. Greece defaults, and Spain and Italy, leading to a banking crisis in Europe.

The recession would probably not be as spectacular as the one that followed the GFC but it could last longer because the problems are more intractable.

What particular problems does this global sharemarket volatility pose for the millions of Australians with superannuation?

Australians have the third highest exposure to shares in the developed world, with more than 46 per cent of our super money invested in equity markets. This is not only outside their control, but much of it is outside the country.

What’s the most sensible course of action?

Get professional financial advice tailored to your own situation. Get a second opinion if you’re unsure, but be careful not to shop around to find someone who just reinforces your prejudices. The best advice is often what makes you think twice. Make sure your risks are in line with your needs.

A long-term portfolio heavily weighted to shares is not necessarily a bad idea, but you’ve got to be prepared to ride the ups and downs. Selling after a market crash is like wearing a seatbelt after a car crash. Most people who try to time the market are worse off than if they’d concentrated on improving their golf swing.
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http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-heading-for-next-gfc-survey-20110815-1iue2.html

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World heading for next GFC: survey

August 15, 2011 - 3:42PM

Almost half of Australia’s voters believe the world is on the cusp of another widespread financial crisis, while over a third say it is a 50-50 call, a survey has found.

The latest weekly Essential Research online survey found that only 8 per cent of the 1029 respondents thought a global financial crisis mark two was not very likely.

Should there be another GFC, 40 per cent said they would trust the opposition Liberal Party more to handle the economy, compared with 31 per cent backing the incumbent Labor government.

Yet, 54 per cent believe the government has handled the economy well during the past few years, compared with 39 per cent who believe it has been poorly handled.

Compared with the rest of the world, 70 per cent say Australia has performed better with only 10 per cent saying the economy has behaved worse than anywhere else.

Should there be another GFC, 39 per cent said the government should not undertake the same sort of stimulus spending as they did in 2009, while 36 per cent say it should.
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I must say I was surprised at how negative sentiment has turned. Particularly pleasing that more now oppose stimulus than support it. Hopefully it swings further to make an attempt political suicide. Nice article.
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http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-on-edge-of-crisis-anz-says-20110819-1j17o.html

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World on edge of crisis, ANZ says

Eric Johnston

August 19, 2011 - 11:42AM

The world economy is on the edge of another economic crisis, ANZ chief executive Mike Smith says.

Mr Smith said the fragile economic situation in the US and Europe in particular, was "delicately poised" and this was likely to see global markets remain volatile for some time to come.

He labelled Europe "a mess" and warned that failure by political leaders to tackle the economic problems could lead to a much wider global crisis.

Even so, Mr Smith said he was not going to overreact to the volatile markets, insisting ANZ - which is attempting to expand in Asia - has the right strategy in place.

The senior banking boss also said he remained positive over the longer term outlook for the Australian economy given its close links to the fast growing Asian region. He was also surprisingly upbeat on the outlook for business lending.

His comments came as ANZ this morning reported a 1.3 per cent increase in third quarter profit to $1.4 billion.

Speaking to investors, Mr Smith said the vulnerabilities that build up in world economy prior to financial crisis will still take some time to work through.

"Europe is frankly a mess, with quite genuine concerns about the solvency of countries such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal the contagion effect that has on countries such as Italy and Spain," he said on a conference call.

"In the US - which I'm normally much more optimistic about - we have seen a crisis which has been created by partisan nature of its current politics and that's created further concerns to what was already a pretty fragile recovery," he said.

He said the massive volatility in equity and credit markets since the Standard & Poor's downgrade of the US credit rating was clearly a signal that markets are concerned about softer growth in most advanced economies. It also reflects a lack of a clear plan from policy makers.

"It's fair to say that right now this is all very delicately poised," Mr Smith said.

"I think further missteps from European and US policy makers really risk converting the cracks in their economies into much deeper global system crisis which will have worrying social and economic consequences".

"Until that fundamentally gets sorted out we're going to have more of this volatility," he said.
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Count du Monet
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Perthite
15 Aug 2011, 06:05 PM
I must say I was surprised at how negative sentiment has turned. Particularly pleasing that more now oppose stimulus than support it. Hopefully it swings further to make an attempt political suicide. Nice article.
Bernanke devalued the USD 9% last 12 months.

Now you can do this, but the interest rates have to be high to make holding the USD worthwhile.

But we got zero bound rates.

High printing and low interest rates don't work.
The next trick of our glorious banks will be to charge us a fee for using net bank!!!
You are no longer customer, you are property!!!

Don't be SAUCY with me Bernaisse
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Count du Monet
19 Aug 2011, 02:05 PM
Perthite
15 Aug 2011, 06:05 PM
I must say I was surprised at how negative sentiment has turned. Particularly pleasing that more now oppose stimulus than support it. Hopefully it swings further to make an attempt political suicide. Nice article.
Bernanke devalued the USD 9% last 12 months.

Now you can do this, but the interest rates have to be high to make holding the USD worthwhile.

But we got zero bound rates.

High printing and low interest rates don't work.
So true Wulfie...

Those gold price preditions of yours from the old days at GHPC are starting to look better by the day.
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tense
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15 Aug 2011, 06:05 PM
I must say I was surprised at how negative sentiment has turned. Particularly pleasing that more now oppose stimulus than support it. Hopefully it swings further to make an attempt political suicide. Nice article.
If sentiment was negative before its dead today, the whole world's in panic, crisis mode, fight or flight!
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