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Shorting the Australian Housing Market - Make Money From Property Crash; Short the property market
Topic Started: 14 Apr 2011, 07:33 PM (20,955 Views)
miw
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genX
28 May 2013, 08:58 PM
You have to pay dividends on an option? I've learned something new today. How about CFDs?

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/optionPrices.do?by=underlyingCode&underlyingCode=CBA

You don't pay dividends on options, but expected future dividends are factored into the price.
The truth will set you free. But first, it will piss you off.
--Gloria Steinem
AREPS™
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Big banks at the top of their game

October 29, 2013 - 1:59PM
Malcolm Maiden

Australian banks are at the top of their game, and that’s why international hedge funds have been betting the price of their shares will fall.

When you have climbed a peak the view is wonderful, but it's downhill wherever you look - or at least, in theory.

Banks in the United States and Europe are much less profitable than the Australians, but their profitability is climbing. They don’t expect to hit their pre-global crisis heights on key profitability measures including their return on equity, but as the economies they operate in improve, their general direction is up.

Their shares are expected to outperform the market in the year ahead, and they are on many investor buy lists.

The profit that ANZ handed down this morning shows however that betting against the Aussie banks is not without risk.

It is quite possible that economic conditions will not improve markedly for them in the year ahead, but they continue to be grind out profit increases, and continue to pay dividends that turn them into the investment equivalent of an ATM.

Their return on equity is high by world standards, roughly twice as good as their equivalents in the northern hemisphere, but it is not outrageous.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/big-banks-at-the-top-of-their-game-20131029-2wcwt.html
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

One word.
Supply and demand
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPwr2SZMpow

It's not our property people are investing in, it is our country.
And that is very good.
Peter
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QBE to float mortgage insurance arm

August 19, 2014 - 9:03AM

QBE Insurance Group has announced plans to partially float its mortgage insurance business in 2015, even as it posted an 18 per cent drop in profits to $US392 million for the half year to June.

The insurer said its lenders mortgage insurance business, QBE LMI, which held around $1.2 billion in net tangible assets at the end of June.

“QBE LMI’s results have been outstanding and are expected to remain so for the foreseeable future,” QBE boss John Neal said. “The capital intensity of this business led us to purchase additional reinsurance protection to support the business’ growth plans, however, with the longer term in mind, the introduction of third party shareholders offers QBE LMI enhanced capital flexibility to support its growth ambition.”

The global insurer unveiled an insurance profit margin of 7.6 per cent, compared with the 10.8 per cent posted in the first half of 2013.

As foreshadowed by AFR.com, QBE is also undertaking an equity raising of $US750 million which will be used primarily to repurchase and cancel $US500 million of convertible subordinated debt.

Mr Neal said the “necessary reserve strengthening in our Latin American Operations is frustrating; however, we acted decisively to put this issue behind us.”

“Other than in Latin America, the group’s divisional results are solid and in line with our internal plans,” he said.

QBE issued a profit downgrade late last month, after warning that problems in its Argentinian business would see its profits fall.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/qbe-to-float-mortgage-insurance-arm-20140819-105mh0.html
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Positioning for a recession? Short the banks

A Hong Kong hedge fund is building up short positions in Australia's big banks, expecting them to be hit hard if Australia's housing sector falters, believing the country is destined for a recession.

Kima Capital portfolio manager Alex Wallis said the outlook for the Australian economy was bleak as some unfortunately timed events had conspired with the commodities boom unwind.

"Australia is destined for a difficult recession at worst or a prolonged period of well-below-trend growth at best," he said.

Those conspiring factors included China's currency devaluation and tighter global liquidity stemming from emerging market currency outflows both in light of a stronger US dollar.

Mr Wallis said Australia's declining terms of trade, which had fallen 30 per cent from their 2011 highs and a common precursor to banking sector crises, had to date been cushioned by an "overheated" property and construction cycle.

That property boom was due to come off, with domestic and Chinese property investors, which had underwritten the boom, being pushed out through regulatory controls, he said.

"In the case of the former it is APRA [Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority] in what I believe is a not-so-subtle attempt to prepare the Australian banking sector for a very challenging downturn, whilst the latter has been suppressed by capital controls."

He also noted a rise in arrears and bad debts, particularly in resources states – Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland – as evidenced in the accounts of ANZ, Genworth Mortgage Insurance, Cash Converters and FlexiGroup.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/kima-capitals-alex-wallis-says-hes-shorting-big-4-banks-as-recession-looms-20150929-gjxp1f.html
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