Wow, that was readable and a positive contribution - well done.
You may be right about the irrational exuberance in the market but why might it change? Property is always going to have an emotional buying and owning component that is absent in other assets classes (the yield on your bhp shares or term deposit return is just boring in comparison). If you can't measure this why not treat it as a constant while current Austalian economic conditions prevail? I know this might be over simplistic for some but it might be the only way to get on with life instead of trying to plan life. Don't take this as meaning I think you need to own property to have a life, only if you want to own you should just do it.
Catweasel laugh. It the very not a often that it breakthrough skull with communication. Most a Catweasel idea the very obvious, but cause a big emotion among a most. It the true that a most mouse credit its skill and good decision a making when a market go the up, but it blame another or a bad luck/unexpected when it go a down.
It say that it should treat a unknown as a constant. Big the problem with a that is that it not know how a mouse behave in a future, so any the purchase is gamble on a mouse behavior. Good a luck. Further the more, as in a any the asset market, when a price at a historical high relevant to most a objective a benchmark, it can be the same that absolute risk at its a greatest. Right a now, it just a big argue about a benchmark. Un the fortunately, it need to look at a messenger and motivation as most a benchmark created by model with a fixed parameter. Information gap a too large for mouse to make informed a decision.
Catweasel see big a potential of more a stress-relate illness related to property spinning wheel that its master create for it. Mouse have to run even a faster on wheel while anxiety attack membrane on its skull. Master will try to relieve a stress by "feel good" propaganda but a Catweasel think it have limited effect.
The biggest problem with your position is that which you identify yourself. You can't know the future.
In 2003 you may have said the same thing that prices were at a historical high compared to most benchmarks but here we are 8 years later and we are at new historical highs. Maybe in 20 years, 2011 levels will be seen as a mid-point or an 'actual' historical high, only time will tell. Personally I am not paralysised by fear do to nothing for the next 20 years, that is why I bought a house in 2004 and then another in 2007 (and sold the first). I recoginise that to do this you need a certain confidence in your own abilities and the gumption to ride out bad times and perhaps start again if the worst should happen - not for everyone I suppose. Also, I guess I have been somewhat fortunate that my minimum mortgage payments are a somewhat low percentage of household income.
“You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means” - Inigo Montoya
I recoginise that to do this you need a certain confidence in your own abilities and the gumption to ride out bad times and perhaps start again if the worst should happen - not for everyone I suppose.
Catweasel laugh. It a "recognize it" only a because a education system, master, and a media force it a down its throat. In a reality, it not a "recognize" a anything until after the fact and a "abilities" have a more to do with fate than a anything else. Also a "ride out the bad times" is also part of the mantra but it as fluffy as it is a pragmatic. It's an emotional blanket to comfort itself about a future.
Catweasel laugh. It a "recognize it" only a because a education system, master, and a media force it a down its throat. In a reality, it not a "recognize" a anything until after the fact and a "abilities" have a more to do with fate than a anything else. Also a "ride out the bad times" is also part of the mantra but it as fluffy as it is a pragmatic. It's an emotional blanket to comfort itself about a future.
Like I said, not for everyone.
“You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means” - Inigo Montoya
most of bears are not in this story to earn money - they earn their money with hard work
they are here to alarm people that this is going wrong way that will cost us our future
I agree. possibly the only thing more counter productive than investing in the property boom and fuelling the affordability crisis, is trying to profit from a crash, with all the pain that will cause...
remember when people used to work for money? at this stage... it seems that any 'investment' in the property market is just profiting off someone else's pain...
most of bears are not in this story to earn money - they earn their money with hard work
they are here to alarm people that this is going wrong way that will cost us our future
Most the bulls on this forum aren't here to make money either. They're just out to subsidise accomodations for those that could otherwise not afford it. They're also trying to make sure they're not a burden on a tax payer when they retire.
:laughing:
Property speculation is a type of gambling... But everyone knows that in gambling, the house always wins in the end.
Most the bulls on this forum aren't here to make money either. They're just out to subsidise accomodations for those that could otherwise not afford it.
Most the bulls on this forum aren't here to make money either. They're just out to subsidise accomodations for those that could otherwise not afford it.
then they are deluded... because they are only making the affordability crisis WORSE... hence actually making life harder for these people...
at this stage... it seems that any 'investment' in the property market is just profiting off someone else's pain...
at any stage ...
property investing in existing properties is not productive therefore any profit made has to come from somewhere else often in the form of pain and suffering.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy