..and all the result of the PI clubs getting organised and voting for it. Creating votes is very easy. The stronger this campaign gets the better it is for the PIs. Rents to the moon.
..and all the result of the PI clubs getting organised and voting for it. Creating votes is very easy. The stronger this campaign gets the better it is for the PIs. Rents to the moon.
Well while I disagree 100% that -ve gearing being altered to limit it's current generous provisions would result in a large rise on rents, I am more willing to swallow Strindbergs claim that a strike might have upward pressure on rents... (His reasons were cited here).
The bigger question is what impact it would have to price and for how long... at the end of the day it's more a political flag wave than an actual strike isn't it ?
After all, those FHB's are not a union of collective buyers... they are all individuals who have their own best interests at heart... it's easy to join a getup campaign... it's more difficult to stick to your guns when/if prices drop 1%, 2%, 4%, 5%.
At the end of the day, assuming this getup campaign grows real legs, it might be the REA's and Politicians that shake in their boots..
Investors might well jump in if prices come down... we shall see.. but I would be impressed if the collective of FHB's stick to their guns after any price drops happen...
The FHB strike idea is number 1 for a couple of days but Get Up hasn't adopted it as an official campaign yet. They adopted other ideas with far less votes. I wonder if Get Up has been subverted by the VIs and told they can't adopt this idea???
It’s a Saturday afternoon and I’m manning the Market Wrap hotline, where Melbourne real estate agents, buyer’s advocates, and members of the public can report auction results from the day.
I typically pick a few interesting or illustrative sales (or non-sales) to put in my column in The Sunday Age Domain section, along with a general wrap up of whatever price or financing figures have been released during the week and, of course, the market-wide clearance rate.
So, the phone rings…
Agent: I just wanted to find out if you’re going to be as negative this week as you have in the last four weeks about the market because you are single-handedly making my life very f**king hard by reporting doom and gloom.
Me: I get the numbers like everyone else and the numbers compared to other years aren’t particularly good.
Agent: I’ve got to say you’re in a very powerful position there and the readers believe everything they read. If it’s in print they believe it. Just try and be a bit more balanced in your views.
Me: If you can give me an instance when I haven’t been balanced…
Agent: You’re saying “The auction clearance rate is 66 per cent! Headline: The market is sliding!” Basically you’re making this happen.
Me: So I’m responsible for the market sliding?
Agent: Well, I think you are. I think it has a lot to do with the reporting. Basically, (in February) you started influencing the market, saying the market was tough. But there wasn’t enough information to make a prediction like that.
Me: The one thing I’ll say to counter that is at this exact time last year (2010), when the clearance rate came out at 85%, 86%, 87% the default position in the industry was that this was an indication of how strong the market was, how healthy it was, how strong demand was.
The stock levels for 2010 and 2011 have essentially mirrored each other. If the clearance rate was said to be particularly strong at that early a stage last year, I don’t see how it’s incorrect to point out that it’s been the weakest opening since 2004 this year.
Agent: I’ve got to say the market actually isn’t too bad. I’d consider a clearance rate of 66 per cent quite a healthy market.
Me: I don’t believe I said doom and gloom. I said it was average or mediocre or moderate.
[Note: In my reporting of the 2011 market, I’ve also said Melbourne has been “patchy”, faced a “glut” of stock, that it so far “held its ground” in the face of rising supply, but that there are some “troubling signs” emerging and, most recently, that it “appears to be struggling”.
I’ve also used some space to point out the growing issue of the under-reporting of auction results. All characterisations based on the price, clearance rate and other statistical data available and put into historical context].
Agent: If reports are coming in that it’s negative the buyers just don’t do anything.
I get calls like this every so often, but they tend to be made with greater frequency in years like 2008 or 2011, rather than 2007 or 2009 when the market is humming along.
But it brings up an interesting point about just how much influence the media has over public perceptions of the property market…
Are we merely spotting trends or driving them?
When the media report on the various -- and often contradictory -- research reports, price indices and surveys are we doing our job by delivering the information or just adding to the confusion?
In an industry defined by statistics but driven by sentiment, does opinion too often bleed into analysis?
Before throwing the discussion over to commenters, there’s been an interesting development in the property sector over the last couple of weeks that gaining traction in the online community.
Social media networks have been buzzing about a call for a “buyers strike”, which was originally put out by Prosper Australia.
The goal is to cause a market correction that will see affordability improve and, in a related campaign, put an end to negative gearing policies.
Economist Steve Keen has come out in support and, to date, the strike call has attracted about 3179 votes on GetUp! (now ranked #1) and about 243 likes on Facebook, plus scores and scores of comments.
The FHB strike idea is number 1 for a couple of days but Get Up hasn't adopted it as an official campaign yet. They adopted other ideas with far less votes. I wonder if Get Up has been subverted by the VIs and told they can't adopt this idea???
well of course they can't adopt this idea! what are they going to do!? unionise first home buyers??? start picketing auctions!?
who is going to police this? and throw fruit at the "scabs"??
hopefully they will be smart enough to turn this into a voice for the disgruntled young wannabe buyers... they should use it to spread the down sides to property investment (which is what any owner occupier is doing), and basically promote CAUTION in what is a very biased public message about property.
they should also use it as a launch pad for a campaign on affordability, which is CERTAINLY something the Gov can act on (they just don't want to).
oh... and also, if they have time... they could try and regulate the real estate industry... what a fucking JOKE that is!
EVERY SINGLE AUCTION! the RESERVE is HIGHER than the quoted RANGE!? how the FUCK can that be acceptable in a flat or falling market?????
if they got the price that wrong in the supermarket, YOU'D GET THE ITEM FOR FREE!
hopefully they will be smart enough to turn this into a voice for the disgruntled young wannabe buyers... they should use it to spread the down sides to property investment (which is what any owner occupier is doing), and basically promote CAUTION in what is a very biased public message about property.
they should also use it as a launch pad for a campaign on affordability, which is CERTAINLY something the Gov can act on (they just don't want to).
oh... and also, if they have time... they could try and regulate the real estate industry... what a fucking JOKE that is!
EVERY SINGLE AUCTION! the RESERVE is HIGHER than the quoted RANGE!? how the FUCK can that be acceptable in a flat or falling market?????
if they got the price that wrong in the supermarket, YOU'D GET THE ITEM FOR FREE!
in short... there IS plenty they can do...
Spot on, there's plenty they can and hopefully will do !
hopefully they will be smart enough to turn this into a voice for the disgruntled young wannabe buyers.
All 0.01% of them
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
It's the sort of social media campaign that sends shivers through people trying to sell their houses in a flat property market.
Prosper Australia, a little-known group which supports tax reform on land, has ignited a small but growing online push calling for a "buyers' strike" to protest against the high cost of housing.
“I undertake not to bid at auction or negotiate by private treaty to buy real estate until prices moderate, just as they have in all the countries we compare ourselves to,” the Prosper pledge states on its website. Advertisement: Story continues below
The campaign has jumped to the top of the list of potential campaign ideas on the online activist site GetUp with hundreds of votes added each day over the past week, outpacing support for same-sex marriage and calls for the Australian government not to bow to pressure to outlaw Wikileaks. It's also bobbing up on Twitter and in other online forums.
Commentators at home and abroad have long questioned the sustainability of Australia's home price increases. Australia is the most overvalued housing market among countries surveyed by The Economist magazine, which calculated that they are 56 per cent over-priced.
Australian home prices, which have increased 177 per cent from December 2002 to the end of 2010 on the Australian Bureau of Statistics capital city house price index. In February the national city house price stood at $465,000, according to RP Data - between four and seven times median household income, depending on the source.
Utility queried
The Real Estate Institute of Victoria, a property industry group, said it shared concerns about the cost of housing but questioned the utility of a buyers' strike.
“People are right to be concerned about affordability problems,” said REIV spokesman Robert Larocca. “Whilst we share everyone's concern about affordability problems, it's a misguided and short-sighted way of trying to deal with it.”
Mr Larocca said that housing affordability had suffered in Melbourne's case because new home construction had failed to keep up with a doubling of the city's population growth in the second half of last decade .
Others, though, lay the blame of rising house prices elsewhere, citing excessive land regulation, speculation by builders, negative gearing and ease of access to loans for driving up costs to unaffordable levels.
'Irresponsible'
Calling it “economically irresponsible” for young adults to be expected to spend thirty years under heavy debt to achieve home ownership, the Prosper strike pledge requires adherents to hold off on auctions or private treaties until prices come down.
Online support for the pledge began after a blogger from the site Bullion Baron added the suggestion to GetUp's campaign idea list. It has since shot up to the number one spot in two weeks, with 3,728 votes as of this morning. The system allows users as many as three votes for the same cause.
“It has been very surprising,” said an Adelaide-based blogger running Bullion Baron, who gave his name only as Joseph. “I think the quick move highlights just how important the housing affordability issue is to young Australians.”
GetUp doesn't automatically pursue any suggestion that receives many votes, it said, however, popular causes on its forum often prompt a wider response from the left-leaning organisation.
Another campaign idea on GetUp's forum would abolish negative gearing.
Is it possible this will backfire on the organizers???
In the online poll, nearly 70% of people say this campaign is pointless and the underlying demand would easily outweigh any pullback by buyers. Only 20% of people think it will do any good
The comments on the SMH article are 70% bullish I'd say, so this campaign has given fuel to the spruikers to spam the internet with rubbish about property always going up as usual
I'm afraid this will turn round to bite "Bullion Baron" on the bum, in the same way Steve Keen shot himself in the foot by harping on about a 40 percent crash only to see the govt respond to him by overloading the market with stimulus and causing another boom!
Please please please leave the market alone, bears and bulls alike! Interfering in the market can backfire on you!!!
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