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Australian Housing Bubble; Why is the public not more upset about the Australian housing bubble?
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Topic Started: 14 Mar 2011, 09:47 AM (1,985 Views)
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apex
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14 Mar 2011, 09:47 AM
Post #1
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If I chat with mates about property and the record debt levels and crazy price v income ratios they act like they couldn't care less.
I don't know whether it's a matter of pride or a matter of shame, but I hardly hear any complaint about the bubble from regular people in my circle. I don't get why more people aren't furious about the dreadful state of our housing market.
The worrying thing is most of them are totally getting screwed by the market..... paying ridiculous rent or huge mortgages to live in some shitty dogbox in crapville. Its damaging their health, social life, family and bank balance. But they never complain and I don't know why.
Wouldn't you think people would care more and be more active to fixing and lobby against the entrenched housing issues!
I reckon the main reason they don't care is false pride, and wanting to do better than their neighbors and show off their dream house even though underneath they're financially close to ruin.
They're happy to whinge about cost of living, how they pay too much tax blah blah blah but mention the housing ponzi and they go quiet and say that's just how it is.
Is my experience unique or do others get this too???
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Deleted User
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14 Mar 2011, 09:52 AM
Post #2
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Deleted User
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- apex
- 14 Mar 2011, 09:47 AM
If I chat with mates about property and the record debt levels and crazy price v income ratios they act like they couldn't care less.
I don't know whether it's a matter of pride or a matter of shame, but I hardly hear any complaint about the bubble from regular people in my circle. I don't get why more people aren't furious about the dreadful state of our housing market.
The worrying thing is most of them are totally getting screwed by the market..... paying ridiculous rent or huge mortgages to live in some shitty dogbox in crapville. Its damaging their health, social life, family and bank balance. But they never complain and I don't know why.
Wouldn't you think people would care more and be more active to fixing and lobby against the entrenched housing issues!
I reckon the main reason they don't care is false pride, and wanting to do better than their neighbors and show off their dream house even though underneath they're financially close to ruin.
They're happy to whinge about cost of living, how they pay too much tax blah blah blah but mention the housing ponzi and they go quiet and say that's just how it is.
Is my experience unique or do others get this too???
Howdy Master Apex
How old are you?
Do you friends have mortgages or are they outright owners?
People are outraged, mostly the young as they flee our shores in protest...
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Sydneyite
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14 Mar 2011, 10:08 AM
Post #3
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Maybe because there is no housing bubble? And they are right when they say "that's just how it is"?? That's why there hasn't been (and won't be) a great crash?
I also note that you said they all live in a "shiity dogbox in crapville", but then go on to say that they are living in their "dream house" so they can show off to their neighbors etc?? Which is it? Care to proide any specific examples?
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catnap
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14 Mar 2011, 01:46 PM
Post #4
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- apex
- 14 Mar 2011, 09:47 AM
If I chat with mates about property and the record debt levels and crazy price v income ratios they act like they couldn't care less.
I don't know whether it's a matter of pride or a matter of shame, but I hardly hear any complaint about the bubble from regular people in my circle. I don't get why more people aren't furious about the dreadful state of our housing market.
The worrying thing is most of them are totally getting screwed by the market..... paying ridiculous rent or huge mortgages to live in some shitty dogbox in crapville. Its damaging their health, social life, family and bank balance. But they never complain and I don't know why.
Wouldn't you think people would care more and be more active to fixing and lobby against the entrenched housing issues!
I reckon the main reason they don't care is false pride, and wanting to do better than their neighbors and show off their dream house even though underneath they're financially close to ruin.
They're happy to whinge about cost of living, how they pay too much tax blah blah blah but mention the housing ponzi and they go quiet and say that's just how it is.
Is my experience unique or do others get this too???
I know how you feel. I've been trying to nut this one out myself (with little success). Maybe people are just working too damn hard to pay off the mortgage/save for a deposit to even think about it. I hear that "just the way it is" bs all the time. Personally, I don't find it to be a pride thing. The idea that property prices always go up is so ingrained people don't question. They buy the best that they can possibly afford (or rather the bank will lend). Because if you don't buy now you will be locked out FOREVER. Buying a house is seen as a form of saving for the future. There are no apparent risks. Bubbles are what happens in other countries. It's different here. There's a major housing shortage - maybe like the one in Ireland, who knows.
Actually, I'm not sure many people actually even think about the possibility of a bubble. I remember watching a really sad property show in the UK around GFC (probably before). This couple were renting a nice flat in the area they grew up in, family close by etc. But baby on the way they buy a horrible run down dogbox in a neighbouring suburb, "to get on the ladder". Dad took only took few days paternity leave, mum 6 weeks. Now I'm not passing any judgement on mothers going back to work early - but this was not out of choice. If they'd stayed on renting they could've easily afforded on one income a bit longer. The saddest thing was they bought at the top of the market and would have almost certainly ended up in negative equity. For what?? People are so blinkered when it comes to property. This couple never stopped to think whether house prices could keep rising at the same rate. All they knew is while they tried to save for a deposit houses got more out of their reach. They felt desperate and stuck. It feels the same here now. And the government encourage this thinking with grants etc.
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Mr Wu
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14 Mar 2011, 01:59 PM
Post #5
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- pauk
- 14 Mar 2011, 09:52 AM
Howdy Master Apex
How old are you?
Do you friends have mortgages or are they outright owners?
Wu wonder why pauk always so many personel detail
Pauk do profile, keep record?
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Deleted User
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14 Mar 2011, 02:06 PM
Post #6
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Deleted User
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- Mr Wu
- 14 Mar 2011, 01:59 PM
Wu wonder why pauk always so many personel detail
Pauk do profile, keep record?
To put the post in context.
No dossiers kept.....lol
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themoops
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14 Mar 2011, 07:13 PM
Post #7
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I think I've only known one person and he said it was "sick".
I think it's because a lot of the young idiot gen y's say between 20-25 are still busy partying, making something of themselves and thinking their life is going to be awesome by default. They just plain haven't done the numbers and have no idea. You've got a lot of gen x'ers who have a mortgage and do not want a crash. There are a lot, probably at least half in my experience, of boomer scum who simply like lording it and don't give a shit. Some of them dead set think they're yuppies now and they're really respectable now that basic middle class shit holes are the best part of a million in Sydney. Then you've got couples who are both making $100k odd each and it's not really a problem. One guy I used to know who fancied himself as an entrepenuer, bond style, ie no skill at all and all lies and criminality, thought he was going to be a millionaire and it wouldn't be a problem.
So basically we're about 30% of the population. I'd say about one third of that are people like us who have a clue. The other two thirds are retards who have no inkling of what a ridiculous amount of money they could save if they joined us.
Or maybe they've woken up finally? Or maybe we've finally reached the point where the banks will say no to them. Given that the market has been a lot slower lately.
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Frank Castle is a liar and a criminal. He will often deliberately take people out of context and use straw man arguments.
stinkbug yn gyfunrywiol
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b_b
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15 Mar 2011, 08:22 AM
Post #8
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- Sydneyite
- 14 Mar 2011, 10:08 AM
Maybe because there is no housing bubble? And they are right when they say "that's just how it is"?? That's why there hasn't been (and won't be) a great crash?
I also note that you said they all live in a "shiity dogbox in crapville", but then go on to say that they are living in their "dream house" so they can show off to their neighbors etc?? Which is it? Care to proide any specific examples?
Good post.
FWIW, I think we have been bombared by MSM about the so called housing bubble over the last few years. It really kicked off with Steve Keen going on the 7:30 Report telling everyone their home was going to fall 40%. Since then, Professor Keen has walked up and down Mt Koziosko, but we still have to read about "bubbles" just about every other day.
SMH / Age have cynically taken advantage of this sentiment with some article about rising house prices, falling house prices, rising rents just about every week. They then received 100's of resposnse from both bulls and bears arguing their case (mainly bears).
Bottom line is there is now "bubble fatigue". There has been no crash. In fact since the GFC Sydny & Melbuorne are up +20%. And the reason......There is no bubble. Never was (at least in Sydney).
The scare-mongerers need to read the classic tale "the boy of cried wolf". Because thats why no-one care about bubble talk anymore...they have heard it all before. Ironically, because of the constant harping on about bubbles that don't exist, the bears have created an environment for the mother of all bubbles over the next few years.
Edited by b_b, 15 Mar 2011, 08:23 AM. |
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Deleted User
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15 Mar 2011, 08:35 AM
Post #9
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Deleted User
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It was called the peak. It was May 2010.
We are now in a correction that will last until at least 2018.
Yes some values have risen post GFC and prices have crashed or started a major correction post GFC. Gold Coast, Noosa, Port Douglas, South Perth, Brisbane etc.
Your observations also need to include what is happening on the home planet now.....a correction.
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Mr Wu
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15 Mar 2011, 09:13 AM
Post #10
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- pauk
- 15 Mar 2011, 08:35 AM
We are now in a correction that will last until at least 2018.
Wu woner how much pauk prepared to bet on this shure thing
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Deleted User
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15 Mar 2011, 09:16 AM
Post #11
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Deleted User
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- Mr Wu
- 15 Mar 2011, 09:13 AM
Wu woner how much pauk prepared to bet on this shure thing
So far the Puts I bought last year on stockland are looking pretty good.
I am investing, that's how I bet......
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b_b
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15 Mar 2011, 09:29 AM
Post #12
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- pauk
- 15 Mar 2011, 08:35 AM
It was called the peak. It was May 2010.
We are now in a correction that will last until at least 2018.
Yes some values have risen post GFC and prices have crashed or started a major correction post GFC. Gold Coast, Noosa, Port Douglas, South Perth, Brisbane etc.
Your observations also need to include what is happening on the home planet now.....a correction.
It is hardly surprising that after such a huge run up in prices the market takes breather.
I wounder why when the resi market falls a couple of % its is suddently "the begining of the end". But if share / gold / bonds / commodities / etc move a couple of %, it is simply considered volatility?
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b_b
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15 Mar 2011, 09:36 AM
Post #13
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- pauk
- 15 Mar 2011, 09:16 AM
- Mr Wu
- 15 Mar 2011, 09:13 AM
Wu woner how much pauk prepared to bet on this shure thing
So far the Puts I bought last year on stockland are looking pretty good. I am investing, that's how I bet......
I think you will do well shorting SGP...but not for the reasons you think
Question: Why just buy Puts? Should you also write some calls and minimise the net premium...that way you have constructed a synthetic short, for very little cost. I assume you do not beleive SGP will rise much...
Edited by b_b, 15 Mar 2011, 09:38 AM. |
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Deleted User
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15 Mar 2011, 09:48 AM
Post #14
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Deleted User
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- b_b
- 15 Mar 2011, 09:36 AM
I think you will do well shorting SGP...but not for the reasons you think
Question: Why just buy Puts? Should you also write some calls and minimise the net premium...that way you have constructed a synthetic short, for very little cost. I assume you do not beleive SGP will rise much...
No need to buy The Calls, when I have the belief about where they may go...
I am still looking at http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/optionPrices.do?by=optionInfo&optionCode=SGPUQ7 as well.
No, for me, Puts only in this case as I have no interest in buying the shares, just selling them.... I certainly do not want to get stuck with them....lol... I am seeking maximum leverage here....
The problem/risk with the SGP Puts are that they underwrite them.....
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b_b
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15 Mar 2011, 09:58 AM
Post #15
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- pauk
- 15 Mar 2011, 09:48 AM
- b_b
- 15 Mar 2011, 09:36 AM
I think you will do well shorting SGP...but not for the reasons you think
Question: Why just buy Puts? Should you also write some calls and minimise the net premium...that way you have constructed a synthetic short, for very little cost. I assume you do not beleive SGP will rise much...
No need to buy The Calls, when I have the belief about where they may go... I am still looking at http://www.asx.com.au/asx/markets/optionPrices.do?by=optionInfo&optionCode=SGPUQ7 as well. No, for me, Puts only in this case as I have no interest in buying the shares, just selling them.... I certainly do not want to get stuck with them....lol... I am seeking maximum leverage here.... The problem/risk with the SGP Puts are that they underwrite them.....
You mis-understand me.
I'm not suggesting you BUY calls. I'm suggesting you WRITE calls.
Buy writing calls you will get a premium up front. Of course you will lose money if the stock finished above the strike at the end of teh period....but I assume you are confident that will not happen.
The attraction of WRITING a call AND BUYING a put, is:
- it reduces the initial net outlay for the investor
- it creates a syntectic short without the cost of stock borrow (so retail investors can effectively short)
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8:32 PM May 23
