Again, all irrelevant to a theory that the 2011 ABS Sydney house prices index will not show a fall if APM's reported clearance rates stay above 55%
At some stage the 2011 ABS index and the clearance rates will be published.
If clearance rate >55% and ABS does not show a fall, the theory is proved. If clearance rate >55% and ABS does show a fall, the theory is disproved. If clearance rate <55% then the theory is neither proved or disproved.
Note - I'm not necessarily saying this is my theory, or that I believe in the theory. I'm just offering it as an example of a theory that can be proved or disproved.
I do understand your point, but you are making it at the expense of removing any human input from the theory, nor any predictive value... It is a theory with little purpose.
Even if the theory is proven (quite a long timeafter after the end of 2011 due to the lagg of publishing)... What does it prove as being correct ?
That a Specific set of conditions happened to match... It does not give any strength to the predictive value as the variables of human input and motivations continue to change.... As they change, the question of motivatio means confidence intervals are unknown... It is a constant question mark on the data and theory's use.
The theory is simply an observation... It is not predictive is it. The theory you cited just happens to be used by many as a predictor of current market strength... Including by yourself.... You just showed it can not be used as such... Only looking backwards..
You just shot the value of that theory in order to make it prove a point... That a theory can exist without giving a rats about human variables...
Now show me a similar theory with validated predictive use that has humans in it please...
You said you were having difficulty coming up with any theory than could be proved or disproved, so I offered you some examples.
I didn't claim they were valuable or had some great purpose. They were just examples of theories that can be proved or disproved.
Lol.. Fair cop.
Thanks for that. I did mean a theory of use and predictive value, but my fault for not making that clear..
sadly, people feel the clearance rates have predictive value... You disagree i assume based on your acceptance that this is not an example of a predictive, useful theory ..
sadly, people feel the clearance rates have predictive value... You disagree i assume based on your acceptance that this is not an example of a predictive, useful theory ..
Clearance rates have been closely correlated with house price movements for the past 20 years, which would suggest they do have some predictive value (assuming that correlation still holds true). By the end of the year will be able to prove/disprove whether the correlation still exists. Based on the data I've seen so far, I think the correlation probably does still exist, but I can't prove anything yet.
Clearance rates have been closely correlated with house price movements for the past 20 years, which would suggest they do have some predictive value (assuming that correlation still holds true). By the end of the year will be able to prove/disprove whether the correlation still exists. Based on the data I've seen so far, I think the correlation probably does still exist, but I can't prove anything yet.
For that correlation to continue, one of the major things you are assuming is that motivations of the people involved has remained constant...
You can not use it to predict with any certainty... but you can use it to predict with uncertainty :c)
Much like chicken guts I guess... but slightly less messy.
btw.. side bar please. (ignoring obviously covered issues)
With this chart... What is with the 6 months lead thing ? Do you really see that on the chart. ?
I looked at it ages ago and did not see any constant peak's or troughs of clearance rates that could predict 6 months peak or trough of the price direction.
Can you cite the dates of the peaks/troughs where this is shown to be correct ?
(I assume that it is not just that clearance rates are posted earlier than price changes)..
With this chart... What is with the 6 months lead thing ? Do you really see that on the chart. ?
I don't see a 6-month lead on the chart, but it's possible the orange line has been shifted to the left by 6 months to make the correlation clearer, or it may just mean that clearance rates are published 6 months before the final (revised) house price data is published.
I don't see a 6-month lead on the chart, but it's possible the orange line has been shifted to the left by 6 months to make the correlation clearer, or it may just mean that clearance rates are published 6 months before the final (revised) house price data is published.
hmm.. Well, I doubt the simple sideways shift would have been done without some kind of footer warning of it.. so yes, I agree it's more a feature of the timely availability of data...
Clearance rates are cited by many as a quick barometer because the initial data is usually fast to be delivered...
Do you know where you came across the picture ? I did a tineye search and came up with zero finds... it might help explain the chart better.
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