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The Negative Gearing Thread: RBA Bulletin - Negative Gearing available in many countries
Topic Started: 10 Mar 2011, 12:10 PM (32,797 Views)
Rastus2
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Shadow
21 Mar 2011, 10:13 PM
Again, all irrelevant to a theory that the 2011 ABS Sydney house prices index will not show a fall if APM's reported clearance rates stay above 55%

At some stage the 2011 ABS index and the clearance rates will be published.

If clearance rate >55% and ABS does not show a fall, the theory is proved.
If clearance rate >55% and ABS does show a fall, the theory is disproved.
If clearance rate <55% then the theory is neither proved or disproved.

Note - I'm not necessarily saying this is my theory, or that I believe in the theory. I'm just offering it as an example of a theory that can be proved or disproved.

I do understand your point, but you are making it at the expense of removing any human input from the theory, nor any predictive value... It is a theory with little purpose.

Even if the theory is proven (quite a long timeafter after the end of 2011 due to the lagg of publishing)... What does it prove as being correct ?

That a Specific set of conditions happened to match... It does not give any strength to the predictive value as the variables of human input and motivations continue to change.... As they change, the question of motivatio means confidence intervals are unknown... It is a constant question mark on the data and theory's use.

The theory is simply an observation... It is not predictive is it. The theory you cited just happens to be used by many as a predictor of current market strength... Including by yourself.... You just showed it can not be used as such... Only looking backwards..

You just shot the value of that theory in order to make it prove a point... That a theory can exist without giving a rats about human variables...

Now show me a similar theory with validated predictive use that has humans in it please...
Edited by Rastus2, 21 Mar 2011, 10:30 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

You said you were having difficulty coming up with any theory than could be proved or disproved, so I offered you some examples.

I didn't claim they were valuable or had some great purpose. They were just examples of theories that can be proved or disproved.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
21 Mar 2011, 10:31 PM
You said you were having difficulty coming up with any theory than could be proved or disproved, so I offered you some examples.

I didn't claim they were valuable or had some great purpose. They were just examples of theories that can be proved or disproved.
Lol.. Fair cop.


Thanks for that. I did mean a theory of use and predictive value, but my fault for not making that clear..

sadly, people feel the clearance rates have predictive value... You disagree i assume based on your acceptance that this is not an example of a predictive, useful theory ..
Edited by Rastus2, 21 Mar 2011, 10:45 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
21 Mar 2011, 10:44 PM
sadly, people feel the clearance rates have predictive value... You disagree i assume based on your acceptance that this is not an example of a predictive, useful theory ..
Clearance rates have been closely correlated with house price movements for the past 20 years, which would suggest they do have some predictive value (assuming that correlation still holds true). By the end of the year will be able to prove/disprove whether the correlation still exists. Based on the data I've seen so far, I think the correlation probably does still exist, but I can't prove anything yet.

Posted Image
Edited by Shadow, 21 Mar 2011, 10:51 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
21 Mar 2011, 10:49 PM
Clearance rates have been closely correlated with house price movements for the past 20 years, which would suggest they do have some predictive value (assuming that correlation still holds true). By the end of the year will be able to prove/disprove whether the correlation still exists. Based on the data I've seen so far, I think the correlation probably does still exist, but I can't prove anything yet.

Posted Image


For that correlation to continue, one of the major things you are assuming is that motivations of the people involved has remained constant...

You can not use it to predict with any certainty... but you can use it to predict with uncertainty :c)

Much like chicken guts I guess... but slightly less messy.


btw.. side bar please. (ignoring obviously covered issues)

With this chart... What is with the 6 months lead thing ? Do you really see that on the chart. ?


I looked at it ages ago and did not see any constant peak's or troughs of clearance rates that could predict 6 months peak or trough of the price direction.


Can you cite the dates of the peaks/troughs where this is shown to be correct ?

(I assume that it is not just that clearance rates are posted earlier than price changes)..
Edited by Rastus2, 21 Mar 2011, 11:00 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
21 Mar 2011, 10:58 PM
With this chart... What is with the 6 months lead thing ? Do you really see that on the chart. ?
I don't see a 6-month lead on the chart, but it's possible the orange line has been shifted to the left by 6 months to make the correlation clearer, or it may just mean that clearance rates are published 6 months before the final (revised) house price data is published.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
21 Mar 2011, 11:10 PM
I don't see a 6-month lead on the chart, but it's possible the orange line has been shifted to the left by 6 months to make the correlation clearer, or it may just mean that clearance rates are published 6 months before the final (revised) house price data is published.

hmm.. Well, I doubt the simple sideways shift would have been done without some kind of footer warning of it.. so yes, I agree it's more a feature of the timely availability of data...

Clearance rates are cited by many as a quick barometer because the initial data is usually fast to be delivered...

Do you know where you came across the picture ? I did a tineye search and came up with zero finds... it might help explain the chart better.

Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
21 Mar 2011, 11:16 PM
Do you know where you came across the picture ? I did a tineye search and came up with zero finds... it might help explain the chart better.
It was from a Macquarie video presentation released last year. I just screengrabbed part of the video.

There's probably still a link to the video on CC somewhere.
Edited by Shadow, 21 Mar 2011, 11:20 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
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Found it... http://www.creditcrunch.co.uk/forum/topic/3994-macquarie-bank-property-outlook-for-the-melbourne-and-sydney-residential-market/

http://www.macquariedigital.com.au/default.aspx?page=videodetails&videoid=6849
Edited by Shadow, 21 Mar 2011, 11:29 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Rastus2
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Shadow
21 Mar 2011, 11:27 PM

thank you for looking.

Appreciated.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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