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The Negative Gearing Thread: RBA Bulletin - Negative Gearing available in many countries
Topic Started: 10 Mar 2011, 12:10 PM (32,798 Views)
Rastus2
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Shadow
21 Mar 2011, 04:22 PM
You have not proved my theory is wrong, and I have not proved it is right. It remains a theory. And it was completely pointless wasting four days 'exposing' the fact that I didn't want to show evidence, because I made it quite clear four days ago myself that I didn't want to show evidence, as evidence doesn't exist.


Righto,

Glad we know where you stand with theories based on motivations...

So, now on to this other theory that a lot of people have... Since it is impossible to derive sound data when motives are in question, i trust you Do not trust any claims on clearance rates..

After all, one can not know what the REA's are thinking when they report or fail to report...

I assume you do not trust the CPI also, after all, no one know what the creators of the index are really thinking when they make up weighting...

Finally, we have the Hedonic Index of property values... This is obviously in serious doubt from you for the same reasons..

Great..
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
21 Mar 2011, 04:32 PM
Righto, Glad we know where you stand with theories based on motivations
I think everybody else knew where I stood four days ago. As always, it just took a lot more effort before you managed to figure it out. But I'm glad you got there, finally.

Rastus2
21 Mar 2011, 04:32 PM
So, now on to this other theory that a lot of people have... Since it is impossible to derive sound data when motives are in question, i trust you Do not trust any claims on clearance rates..

After all, one can not know what the REA's are thinking when they report or fail to report...

I assume you do not trust the CPI also, after all, no one know what the creators of the index are really thinking when they make up weighting...

Finally, we have the Hedonic Index of property values... This is obviously in serious doubt from you for the same reasons

Put forward your theories about clearance rates, CPI, or property values, and I'll let you know my position on the theory.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
21 Mar 2011, 04:41 PM
I think everybody else knew where I stood four days ago. As always, it just took a lot more effort before you managed to figure it out. But I'm glad you got there, finally.



Put forward your theories about clearance rates, CPI, or property values, and I'll let you know my position on the theory.


agreed.. they could all see you running away from defending your theory as fast as possible... it just took a long time to get you to see it as well.



They are not my theories... however they exist.

The theories are that CPI, Clearance rates and Hedonic Index Property values are a good measure of their associated items.

They can not be called facts as they are rather complex attempts to measure something that is terribly difficult.

Sadly, since they all rely on humans to derive the makeup, it is impossible to prove that any of them were not done with alternate motives to the stated ones.. thus, by your own words, they carry no evidence of being true to their proposed purpose.


I do not agree or disagree with this stance particularly, but I am asking if this is how you feel based on your insistence that since true motivation can not be derived, then one should not trust sources of information for how they derived or manipulated it.


In fact, I have been trying to think of many theories that, by your own high standards, could ever progress to the point where they can be deemed to be correct and proven... after all, most if not all theories require human input at some point.. and that motivation behind that input can never be fully known.

You say that the excuse of motivation can not be freely used to remove the need to back up theories with hard data, however since motivation of anyone involved in the setting up of the formula or the gathering/collating of data is not in question.. all methods are flawed.

Do you see why I find it difficult to accept your high standards as being a valid excuse to avoid looking at the data that is, in fact, available and make a conclusion with the acceptance that some degree of trust in that data is required.

Many bulls do this on a weekly basis with the REIV published data on clearance rates... if anything, it's the bears who scream that the true motivations warp these numbers...
Edited by Rastus2, 21 Mar 2011, 07:26 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
21 Mar 2011, 07:24 PM
agreed.. they could all see you running away from defending your theory as fast as possible... it just took a long time to get you to see it as well.

Choosing not to attempt the impossible is not 'running away', it is simply common sense. On the other hand, you have chosen not to disprove the theory, even though you claim the theory is wrong and that you know of 'numerous methods' for disproving it. So if anyone is running away, then it is you.

Rastus2
21 Mar 2011, 07:24 PM
I have been trying to think of many theories that, by your own high standards, could ever progress to the point where they can be deemed to be correct and proven... after all, most if not all theories require human input at some point.. and that motivation behind that input can never be fully known.

I'm not surprised you're having so much difficulty, even though I gave you two examples this afternoon. In case you can't remember that far back, I will restate them for you...

1. A theory that a dropped ball will fall to the ground can be tested and verified.

2. A theory that the ABS Sydney house prices index will not show a fall for the full year 2011 if APM's initial reported Sydney auction clearance rates stay above 55% for most of 2011 can be proved (or disproved) in February 2012 when the ABS data is released.
Edited by Shadow, 21 Mar 2011, 08:02 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
21 Mar 2011, 07:54 PM

Choosing not to attempt the impossible is not 'running away', it is simply common sense. On the other hand, you have chosen not to disprove the theory, even though you claim the theory is wrong and that you know of 'numerous methods' for disproving it. So if anyone is running away, then it is you.



I'm not surprised you're having so much difficulty, even though I gave you two examples this afternoon. In case you can't remember that far back, I will restate them for you...

1. A theory that a dropped ball will fall to the ground can be tested and verified.

2. A theory that the ABS Sydney house prices index will not show a fall for the full year 2011 if APM's initial reported Sydney auction clearance rates stay above 55% for most of 2011 can be proved (or disproved) in February 2012 when the ABS data is released.

Well we will have to agree to disagree as your idea of impossible seems fabricated to me... What you still don't understand is that you do not need to know what the Gov. was thinking when it justified it's policies .. you just need to know the data that the gov. used to justify those policies and then build your evidence on that foundation... once again, talk to Strindberg, he, at least, knows how to source data ..

You want to make it an impossible task to avoid having to do the task itself.. I observe this all the time with our children. We call it the "It's too Haaaard Syndrome" :c)



You are very funny with your examples and attempts to mock me with them ...


Quote:
 
I'm not surprised you're having so much difficulty, even though I gave you two examples this afternoon. In case you can't remember that far back, I will restate them for you...

1. A theory that a dropped ball will fall to the ground can be tested and verified.

2. A theory that the ABS Sydney house prices index will not show a fall for the full year 2011 if APM's initial reported Sydney auction clearance rates stay above 55% for most of 2011 can be proved (or disproved) in February 2012 when the ABS data is released.



I didn't miss them, I just ignored them as they were silly examples to use and watching you shooting yourself in the foot with them was a bit sad ....

They are both flawed examples to prove your point for a number of reasons

For a start, because they both use humans (with all our failings of complex motives) to either gather, observe, input, tabulate and/or announce data ... thus, by your own logic, the data can not be relied upon... don't you see the egg on your own face yet with this logic ?


also because :

1 - You are talking about basic physics ... this is no comparison to the CPI, Hed. Index or any other man made index is it ? (You do understand the difference don't you ?).

2 - Wow.. this thing again ... Perhaps you need to talk to kennyj about how correlations are not an implication of causation... perhaps you missed his interesting explanation. On top of that you have the issue of human motivations of the data input, etc etc cited above.


You have opened the 'it's too hard to know motives' Pandora's box, and now it can not be easily closed... shame really as you have single handedly managed to undermine almost every data set that bulls throw up to show strength in the real estate sector... even the ones that have obviously stood the test of time...


Now, every time a bear says something like 'those numbers are rubbish because the reporter/rea/REIV etc were motivated to manipulate them', remember.. you have to support that claim with the same 4 days of crying 'the motives can not be known of the policy makers'... :beer: Classic.

Why did you do this ? well to avoid having to do the legwork on your theory obviously :rolleyes:



Edited by Rastus2, 21 Mar 2011, 08:28 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
21 Mar 2011, 08:25 PM
Quote:
 
2. A theory that the ABS Sydney house prices index will not show a fall for the full year 2011 if APM's initial reported Sydney auction clearance rates stay above 55% for most of 2011 can be proved (or disproved) in February 2012 when the ABS data is released.

2 - Wow.. this thing again ... Perhaps you need to talk to kennyj about how correlations are not an implication of causation... perhaps you missed his interesting explanation. On top of that you have the issue of human motivations of the data input, etc etc cited above.
The theory is not about causation or correlation. It does not claim the lack of a fall is caused by the clearance rate figures, or even that they are correlated in any way (although it implies that the theorist believes there may be a correlation).

Motivation is irrelevant in this case. The ABS index will either show a fall or it will not. The reported clearance rates will be above 55% or they will not. A theory stating that the ABS index will not show a fall if the reported clearance rates are above 55% can be proved or disproved regardless of the motivations of the people gathering that data.
Edited by Shadow, 21 Mar 2011, 08:34 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
21 Mar 2011, 08:33 PM
The theory is not about causation or correlation. It does not claim the lack of a fall is caused by the clearance rate figures, or even that they are correlated in any way (although it implies that the theorist believes there may be a correlation).

Motivation is irrelevant in this case. The ABS index will either show a fall or it will not. The reported clearance rates will be above 55% or they will not. A theory stating that the ABS index will not show a fall if the reported clearance rates are above 55% can be proved or disproved regardless of the motivations of the people gathering that data.

Nope, You are incorrect again... and all by your own words from the last 4 days.

Lets stick to the example you use for now on Clearance rates to keep it simple :

You missed mentioning the people (and their motivation) in your vision of clearance rates... thus, since REA's are involved, since Data Collectors are involved, since Reporters are involved, since Media managers are involved... by your own claims, their 'unknown motivations' can skew the data.

Before you use the excuse that these motivations are a constant...
By your own claims over the last 4 days, different governments may have different motivations, we can not know .... thus, different people in those positions of the chain of data have their own motivations... and as those people change from week to week, from year to year, any 'constants' do not remain equally skewed to keep the dataset equally skewed over time ... they vary.

The end result is that you can not say those motivations are constant, thus data from a 12 month period can be looked back as being correct... each week can have a different degree of skewing of data.


That 55% in your example might have been 45% if the group that collects data today was doing it last year... or indeed, 76%... we can not know the motives of those chaps.

Thanks for opening up this Pandora's box... it rocks.

Edited by Rastus2, 21 Mar 2011, 08:58 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Rastus2
21 Mar 2011, 08:55 PM

Nope, You are incorrect again... and all by your own words from the last 4 days.

Lets stick to the example you use for now on Clearance rates to keep it simple :

You missed mentioning the people (and their motivation) in your vision of clearance rates... thus, since REA's are involved, since Data Collectors are involved, since Reporters are involved, since Media managers are involved... by your own claims, their 'unknown motivations' can skew the data.

Before you use the excuse that these motivations are a constant...
By your own claims over the last 4 days, different governments may have different motivations, we can not know .... thus, different people in those positions of the chain of data have their own motivations... and as those people change from week to week, from year to year, any 'constants' do not remain equally skewed to keep the dataset equally skewed over time ... they vary.

The end result is that you can not say those motivations are constant, thus data from a 12 month period can be looked back as being correct... each week can have a different degree of skewing of data.


That 55% in your example might have been 45% if the group that collects data today was doing it last year... or indeed, 76%... we can not know the motives of those chaps.

Thanks for opening up this Pandora's box... it rocks.
That's all irrelevant to my example.

Theory: The ABS Sydney house prices index will not show a fall if APM's reported clearance rates stay above 55%

The theory is based on the published results. Whether or not those results are accurate is irrelevant to the theory. The theory can still be proved or disproved when the results are published, regardless of their accuracy.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Rastus2
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Shadow
21 Mar 2011, 09:08 PM
That's all irrelevant to my example.

Theory: The ABS Sydney house prices index will not show a fall if APM's reported clearance rates stay above 55%

The theory is based on the published results. Whether or not those results are accurate is irrelevant to the theory. The theory can still be proved or disproved when the results are published, regardless of their accuracy.


Nope, you still do not understand... And you are contradicting yourself..


What you are trying to do is remove the human elements by saying that it is only the numbers on. A piece of paper that matter...


That is fine as long as you do not try to draw conclusions on those numbers that rely on a constant that does not exist... Eg the motivations of the people involved in getting the data to you...


Quote:
 
Motivation is irrelevant in this case. The ABS index will either show a fall or it will not. The reported clearance rates will be above 55% or they will not. A theory stating that the ABS index will not show a fall if the reported clearance rates are above 55% can be proved or disproved regardless of the motivations of the people gathering that data
.

Notice the word "will" ... As opposed to "did" ... That implies predictive rather than historic.. Or, at least, implication of correlation.... Woops...

You can observe that the set of motivations on any particular data set at a particular set of time showed X, and, at the same time another set of data from another group of motivated people showed Y... And you can chart that... However, by your own words, since those constants of motivations change, the relationships between that charts data sets must be called into question.. Perhaps the error is 30% from one data time set to the next, perhaps it is 0.0001% .... It is impossible to map that changing motivation on data accuracy/skewing Your point of motivation of the governments made this clear...




Now personally, i did not have a massive problem with this correlation until the motives of REA's were made clear, and news of altered motives recently highlighted... Rightly or wrongly, it does not matter as we know their motivations can not realistically be considered constant forever... And neither can the many other people involved in the data sets..
Edited by Rastus2, 21 Mar 2011, 09:58 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Shadow
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Again, all irrelevant to a theory that the 2011 ABS Sydney house prices index will not show a fall if APM's reported clearance rates stay above 55%

At some stage the 2011 ABS index and the clearance rates will be published.

If clearance rate >55% and ABS does not show a fall, the theory is proved.
If clearance rate >55% and ABS does show a fall, the theory is disproved.
If clearance rate <55% then the theory is neither proved or disproved.

Note - I'm not necessarily saying this is my theory, or that I believe in the theory. I'm just offering it as an example of a theory that can be proved or disproved.
Edited by Shadow, 21 Mar 2011, 10:15 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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