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Auction Clearance Rates - Auction Results Manipulated; Auction Rates Fudged by Failed Campaigns
Topic Started: 6 Mar 2011, 01:19 AM (32,658 Views)
Rastus2
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Auction rates fudged by failed campaigns.

Anyone know why auction results show such terrible clearance figures ?

http://apm.domain.com.au/Research/AuctionResults/

Anyone ?
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rastus2
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Auction rates fudged by failed campaigns

By Bronwen Gora and Helen Pow From:The Sunday Telegraph March 06, 2011 12:00AM

Story

Up to 50pc of auctions going unrecorded
Agents "don't want to report failures"
Results still robust, analysts say

EMBARRASSED agents are covering up a growing failure to sell homes at auction by not telling reporting bodies about their failed campaigns.

Figures compiled by research agencies Australian Property Monitors and Residex over the past three weeks show that between 10 per cent and almost 50 per cent of auction results across Sydney went unrecorded.

The reason was embarrassed real estate agents wanting to avoid reporting of failed auction campaigns, said leading property analyst Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research.

"We are having a very high percentage of auction campaigns going unreported to the reporting bodies, and we strongly believe those unreported auctions are actually failed campaigns," Mr Christopher said.

Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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barns
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We've been through all this. Clearance rates got down to 50% in dec and Jan rates are rubbish - very little activity. Feb not final yet and march just started.
“You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means” - Inigo Montoya
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barns
6 Mar 2011, 07:33 AM
We've been through all this. Clearance rates got down to 50% in dec and Jan rates are rubbish - very little activity. Feb not final yet and march just started.
Master Barns
Assuming you are correct, what are the correct rates for the last 6 months?

They did drop considerably and now you are saying they are on the up again, is that correct?
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Jacks money
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hey just reading the sunday telegraph ... page 11
the unreported auction tale .... anywhere between 10 and 50% :sleep:
It’s not getting any smarter out there. You have to come to terms with stupidity, and make it work for you - Frank Zappa
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Jacks money
6 Mar 2011, 08:44 AM
hey just reading the sunday telegraph ... page 11
the unreported auction tale .... anywhere between 10 and 50% :sleep:


http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/auction-rates-fudged-by-campaigns/story-fn6b3v4f-1226016445004

The weekend auction clearance rate was 61- 65 per cent. Source: HWT Image Library
EMBARRASSED agents are covering up a growing failure to sell homes at auction by not telling reporting bodies about their failed campaigns.

Figures compiled by research agencies Australian Property Monitors and Residex over the past three weeks show that between 10 per cent and almost 50 per cent of auction results across Sydney went unrecorded.

The reason was embarrassed real estate agents wanting to avoid reporting of failed auction campaigns, said leading property analyst Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research.

"We are having a very high percentage of auction campaigns going unreported to the reporting bodies, and we strongly believe those unreported auctions are actually failed campaigns," Mr Christopher said.

Sydney clearance rates from last Saturday were recorded at between 61 per cent and 65 per cent by leading data property collection agencies. But the true figure is far worse.


Related Coverage
Find the sales option that works for you Herald Sun, 18 Feb 2011
Auctions regain their momentum Adelaide Now, 18 Feb 2011
More auctions, but sales hammered Adelaide Now, 30 Dec 2010
Market ends year on strong note Herald Sun, 19 Dec 2010
Auction website sells homes online Perth Now, 23 Nov 2010

Director of Sydney's largest independent auction house Damian Cooley of Cooley Auctions strongly agreed.

He said agents avoided calls by data collection agencies to stop properties that passed in being recorded in data base and newspaper listings.

"In the vast majority of cases, the results that don't get reported were either withdrawn or passed in, and the agents don't want those results reported the next day," he said.

Cooley Auctions had a 51 per cent clearance rate for its 76 auctions last Saturday, the busiest day of the 2011 selling season so far, compared to APM's 65 per cent clearance rate for the day.

"Ours is 100 per cent accurate as we represented 12.2 per cent of the market on that day, so I find it hard to believe there's a 14 per cent difference across the market," Mr Cooley said.

Cooley Auctions also recorded a lower clearance rate of 55 per cent for the entire month of February than APM's 62 per cent.

Under-reporting can make property prices seem more buoyant than they are.

But buyers should not be using only clearance rates to gauge the state of the market, experts said.

What's more, the current flatter market in which buyers were holding back at auction was generally forcing prices lower than last year, Mr Cooley said.

"Lower prices are being achieved this year in most cases," Mr Cooley said. "The great side of that is that there'll be brilliant buying opportunities over the next quarter of the year as there's quite a bit of property on the market. In February this year, we did 306 auctions, whereas last year, we did 183 -- an increase of 67 per cent."

APM senior economist Andrew Wilson confirmed some agents did not report their results on purpose, but denied that the market was flailing.

"Our data confirms that while there is not a boom, there is a sense of recovery," Mr Wilson said.

"Auction clearance rates are reasonably robust.

"There are spot sales and anecdotal evidence that vendors are getting better results than expected and buyers are still active and competitive."

Residex had almost 20 per cent of auction results go unreported last Saturday.

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Marcus59
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The Agents are fudging the figures..
http://www.news.com.au/money/auction-rates-fudged-by-failed-campaigns/story-e6frfmci-1226016477643

OMG... Do you mean to say that Real Estate Agents aren't telling the truth? Well, I guess its not a lie if you don't actually tell anyone your auctions are falling flat on their arse. :cool:
Edited by Marcus59, 6 Mar 2011, 09:04 AM.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

The real question is whether or not there are more 'unreporteds' today than there were a few months ago when initial reported auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne were under 50%. If the percentage of 'unreporteds' is consistent through the years, then auction clearance rates have still risen from their lows last year, regardless of the underlying 'true/final/revised' clearance rate figure.

Louis - do you have data (a chart) on the percentage of 'unreporteds' over time?
Edited by Shadow, 6 Mar 2011, 09:40 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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rizzi
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Auction results this week? Usually it gets available end of Saturday but seems not uploaded yet??
Edited by rizzi, 6 Mar 2011, 10:40 AM.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Rastus2
6 Mar 2011, 01:19 AM

anyone know why apm.domain.com.au auction results show such terrible clearance figures ?
Because that's how low clearance rates got down to late last year (when house prices were generally falling slightly).

Clearance rates have since risen from those lows, and note my comment from the other thread about the unreported figures...

Quote:
 
The real question is whether or not there are more 'unreporteds' today than there were a few months ago when initial reported auction clearance rates in Sydney and Melbourne were under 50%. If the percentage of 'unreporteds' is consistent through the years, then auction clearance rates have still risen from their lows last year, regardless of the underlying 'true/final/revised' clearance rate figure.

Louis - do you have data (a chart) on the percentage of 'unreporteds' over time?
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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