I'd better make some more Popcorn, this is really going to make the "debate" Interesting tonight. The Economist article has also just hit News.com http://www.news.com.au/money/property/australian-homes-most-overvalued-survey/story-e6frfmd0-1226015960562 Maybe one day those that really believe that we in Australia are somehow insulated from the rest of the world and that we are different, will take their heads out of their collective figures long enough to consider the 1000's of families and children who are suffering because of this nonsense.. Affordability is the real issue and statistics are just like the Bible.. You can interpret them any way you like to justify anything you want to.. :cool:
You speak of 1000's of families and children suffering. Can you tell me where in the world these families would be better off?
I was just reading this morning about how a piece of land on the outskirts of Melbourne will cost you $200k, or on outskirts of Sydney, $350k.
Now given cost of clearing, utilities etc, I could buy a price of say $70k, even in the least-densely-inhabited country on earth. But 200 or 350 is absolutely stupid.
Nominal house prices have increased approximately 2.5-3x in Melbourne since 2000 (Stapledon). Absent ridiculous inflation, do you believe the next 10 years will see "accelerated" growth from that?
It would be a very brave person who made that bet IMO.
It a same argument used in a Japan before a bubble burst--land cost a high; construction cost a high; labor cost a high; massive a demand; limited a land.
Academic and a Westerner used to look a Japan and the amaze. But the white man never the call a bubble on a Japanese. Not the single one (except a one Irish the journalist). Nobody the talk about a demographics; govt a debt; and credit bubble.
Very the obvious in a hindsight. How can the mouse in Western country be the same blind about its the own?
You speak of 1000's of families and children suffering. Can you tell me where in the world these families would be better off?
Yeh, I guess we have a pretty good standard of living here in Australia. And those families who have lost everything because they fell for the dream of owning their own home just like Mum and Dad did can always suckle the public tit, when the dream falls flat on it face like it has for so very many people.
Unfortunately, many families and children are suffering simply because this insane desire to own their own home at all costs has Dad working a 12 hour day just to put food on his families table, Mum is also flogging herself to death and the kids are lucky to spend any quality time with their parents. I really don't care what facts and figures can be used to justify this situation, it is immoral and we as a country should be ashamed of it.
And I have owned homes and Investment properties, I just happen to believe that we have a moral responsibility to ensure that the people of our "Lucky Country" can benefit on every level. Not a greeny nor have I ever voted Labour. I'll get off my soapbox now, Basically opinions are like arseholes everybodies got one, and they are all really full of crap, Just depends on what matters to you.
I think it is almost certain house prices will accelerate from here.
The biggest problem with Aussie house prices is that they are too low.
Prices relatives to the cost of production is such that industry supply is too low relative to demand.
Prices are certain to rise from here to encourge new supply.
The big issue will be when prices rise well above replacement cost and we have a boom (or even a bubble). By then (possibly by 2014-2015) real experts will be calling the top of the market. But these experts will be ignored because MSM and others will recall this call turned out to be spectacularly wrong in 2010-2011. This will be the equivilant to the "boy who cried wolf".
So yes - it is almost certain house prices will accelerate from here. You aint seen nothing yet!
I think it is almost certain house prices will accelerate from here.
The biggest problem with Aussie house prices is that they are too low.
Prices relatives to the cost of production is such that industry supply is too low relative to demand.
Prices are certain to rise from here to encourge new supply.
The big issue will be when prices rise well above replacement cost and we have a boom (or even a bubble). By then (possibly by 2014-2015) real experts will be calling the top of the market. But these experts will be ignored because MSM and others will recall this call turned out to be spectacularly wrong in 2010-2011. This will be the equivilant to the "boy who cried wolf".
So yes - it is almost certain house prices will accelerate from here. You aint seen nothing yet!
woaaahhh - big claim. if i was so inclined i might copy this for posterity sake. seriously though, when do you think this acceleration is going to start? if there is acceleration in the remainder of the time before 2014/15 there is gonna be one hell of a big mess after that. b_b, uber bearish prediction. i am impressed :).
I think it is almost certain house prices will accelerate from here.
The biggest problem with Aussie house prices is that they are too low.
Prices relatives to the cost of production is such that industry supply is too low relative to demand.
Prices are certain to rise from here to encourge new supply.
The big issue will be when prices rise well above replacement cost and we have a boom (or even a bubble). By then (possibly by 2014-2015) real experts will be calling the top of the market. But these experts will be ignored because MSM and others will recall this call turned out to be spectacularly wrong in 2010-2011. This will be the equivilant to the "boy who cried wolf".
So yes - it is almost certain house prices will accelerate from here. You aint seen nothing yet!
I'm going to keep this post for propserity. You're going to be (in)famous for it B_B!
Do you remember audas parading around with his 22 Uni degrees proclaiming that the crash was upon us and he would buy a home with a 40% discount. Never did hear from him again once he realised what a mistake he had made.
b_b got it right.
Any expressed market opinion is my own and is not to be taken as financial advice
Do you remember audas parading around with his 22 Uni degrees proclaiming that the crash was upon us and he would buy a home with a 40% discount. Never did hear from him again once he realised what a mistake he had made.
b_b got it right.
So did shadow. 2011 was the bear trap which caused the bears to all say the crash had begun... Just before the boom...
I put trolls and time wasters on my ignore list so if I don't respond to you, you are probably on it ....
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