"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
You've been misled. Approvals does not mean new supply.
Only about 90% of approvals move to completion, and of those completions, about 15% simply replace a demolished dwelling.
So you need to drop the red line by about 25% to understand the true impact on supply. We under-built for a decade.
That's why there is now a construction boom, as predicted.
If there is not 100,000 units being built right now in Sydney, I am a monkeys uncle.
One sight near me has 4,000 units, another, 2,000 another 6,000. This is three sights. On driving around there are SO many just of lessor amounts, but none the less highrise with a few hundred or more. Some sights I pass are only on the ground, many in all stages of completions. Others just a vacant or old commercial block advertising for sale of new units. Then there is every other part of Sydney, cranes and units in all directions as far as the eye can see. I was at a motor show at rosehill which was probably two years ago now. Even then I remember walking to a high point in the complex and looking around to see an unbeliable amount in all directions back then. Would like to seenin now by comparison. Then you could see all the highrise which had already been built.
When you look at all the building going on , its sure seems A LOT higher than these quoted numbers. When I look at the few sites I know of, and then all the rest being built, it can only be much higher than this.
Could it be that when a highrise building is approved, the number only shows up as one building approval rather than the 4,000 being built in this one complex.
If that is the case it would sure explain a lot because the numbers just dont add up to what I am seeing.
Do you *really* believe this??? If you are right, how come:
* Prices in cities like Sydney and Melbourne (the main areas with chronic under-supply and highest population growth co-incidentally by the way.....) have continued to rise so much? While prices in other cities and regional areas have not?
* There is currently a massive apartment construction boom currently in play in Sydney and Melbourne? With basically *everything* selling off the plan.... And no sign of systemic glut, or downwards price pressure / under-supply over the past decade or more at all?
All just a co-incidence? Do you ever question your core beliefs when you look at what has actually happened?
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
Do you *really* believe this??? If you are right, how come:
* Prices in cities like Sydney and Melbourne (the main areas with chronic under-supply and highest population growth co-incidentally by the way.....) have continued to rise so much? While prices in other cities and regional areas have not?
* There is currently a massive apartment construction boom currently in play in Sydney and Melbourne? With basically *everything* selling off the plan.... And no sign of systemic glut, or downwards price pressure / under-supply over the past decade or more at all?
All just a co-incidence? Do you ever question your core beliefs when you look at what has actually happened?
Yep, all those organisations telling you your homes are at least 40% overvalued must be wrong, because....because.....well.... you are a clever investor.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE! Share a cot with Milton?
Yep, all those organisations telling you your homes are at least 40% overvalued must be wrong, because....because.....well.... you are a clever investor.
Don't you own a house? If you do and you believe these "organisations" (whoever they are?), why don't you sell and cash in?
I suspect you are just psychologically "locked-in" to your long term bearish views which have been wrong for nearly a decade, but you can't bring yourself to admit that, even though deep down you know you are wrong. I mean you even helped run a (now failed) forum a few years ago dedicated to promoting the existence of "the bubble" and the inevitable imminent crash right?
But if things do keep running like they are, and we end up with a large over-supply in Sydney for a while, you may gain some vindication if/when the market pulls back and stagnates for a few years - although I'm sure you will miss this at the time and still be going on about irrational investors, speculative bubbles, tulips, ponzi schemes and so on.....
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