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12 Economic Collapse Scenarios That We Could Potentially See In 2011
Topic Started: 21 Jan 2011, 03:27 PM (3,008 Views)
Peak Debt
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12 Economic Collapse Scenarios That We Could Potentially See In 2011

What could cause an economic collapse in 2011? Well, unfortunately there are quite a few "nightmare scenarios" that could plunge the entire globe into another massive financial crisis. The United States, Japan and most of the nations in Europe are absolutely drowning in debt. The Federal Reserve continues to play reckless games with the U.S. dollar. The price of oil is skyrocketing and the global price of food just hit a new record high. Food riots are already breaking out all over the world. Meanwhile, the rampant fraud and corruption going on in world financial markets is starting to be exposed and the whole house of cards could come crashing down at any time. Most Americans have no idea that a horrific economic collapse could happen at literally any time. There is no way that all of this debt and all of this financial corruption is sustainable. At some point we are going to reach a moment of "total system failure".

So will it be soon? Let's hope not. Let's certainly hope that it does not happen in 2011. Many of us need more time to prepare. Most of our families and friends need more time to prepare. Once this thing implodes there isn't going to be an opportunity to have a "do over". We simply will not be able to put the toothpaste back into the tube again.

So we had all better be getting prepared for hard times. The following are 12 economic collapse scenarios that we could potentially see in 2011....

#1 U.S. debt could become a massive crisis at any moment. China is saying all of the right things at the moment, but many analysts are openly worried about what could happen if China suddenly decides to start dumping all of the U.S. debt that they have accumulated. Right now about the only thing keeping U.S. government finances going is the ability to borrow gigantic amounts of money at extremely low interest rates. If anything upsets that paradigm, it could potentially have enormous consequences for the entire world financial system.

#2 Speaking of threats to the global financial system, it turns out that "quantitative easing 2" has had the exact opposite effect that Ben Bernanke planned for it to have. Bernanke insisted that the main goal of QE2 was to lower interest rates, but instead all it has done is cause interest rates to go up substantially. If Bernanke this incompetent or is he trying to mess everything up on purpose?

#3 The debt bubble that the entire global economy is based on could burst at any time and throw the whole planet into chaos. According to a new report from the World Economic Forum, the total amount of credit in the world increased from $57 trillion in 2000 to $109 trillion in 2009. The WEF says that now the world is going to need another $100 trillion in credit to support projected "economic growth" over the next decade. So is this how the new "global economy" works? We just keep doubling the total amount of debt every decade?

#4 As the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve continue to pump massive amounts of new dollars into the system, the floor could fall out from underneath the U.S. dollar at any time. The truth is that we are already starting to see inflation really accelerate and everyone pretty much acknowledges that official U.S. governments figures for inflation are an absolute joke. According to one new study, the cost of college tuition has risen 286% over the last 20 years, and the cost of "hospital, nursing-home and adult-day-care services" rose 269% during those same two decades. All of this happened during a period of supposedly "low" inflation. So what are price increases going to look like when we actually have "high" inflation?

#5 One of the primary drivers of global inflation during 2011 could be the price of oil. A large number of economists are now projecting that the price of oil could surge well past $100 dollars a barrel in 2011. If that happens, it is going to put significant pressure on the price of almost everything else in the entire global economy. In fact, as I have explained previously, the higher the price of oil goes, the faster the U.S. economy will decline.

#6 Food inflation is already so bad in some areas of the globe that it is setting off massive food riots in nations such as Tunisia and Algeria. In fact, there have been reports of people setting themselves on fire all over the Middle East as a way to draw attention to how desperate they are. So what is going to happen if global food prices go up another 10 or 20 percent and food riots spread literally all over the globe during 2011?

#7 There are persistent rumors that simply will not go away of massive physical gold and silver shortages. Demand for precious metals has never been higher. So what is going to happen when many investors begin to absolutely insist on physical delivery of their precious metals? What is going to happen when the fact that far, far, far more "paper gold" and "paper silver" has been sold than has ever actually physically existed in the history of the planet starts to come out? What would that do to the price of gold and silver?

#8 The U.S. housing industry could plunge the U.S. economy into another recession at any time. The real estate market is absolutely flooded with homes and virtually nobody is buying. This massive oversupply of homes means that the construction of new homes has fallen off a cliff. In 2010, only 703,000 single family, multi-family and manufactured homes were completed. This was a new record low, and it was down 17% from the previous all-time record which had just been set in 2009.

#9 A combination of extreme weather and disease could make this an absolutely brutal year for U.S. farmers. This winter we have already seen thousands of new cold weather and snowfall records set across the United States. Now there is some very disturbing news emerging out of Florida of an "incurable bacteria" that is ravaging citrus crops all over Florida. Is there a reason why so many bad things are happening all of a sudden?

#10 The municipal bond crisis could go "supernova" at any time. Already, investors are bailing out of bonds at a frightening pace. State and local government debt is now sitting at an all-time high of 22 percent of U.S. GDP. According to Meredith Whitney, the municipal bond crisis that we are facing is a gigantic threat to our financial system....

"It has tentacles as wide as anything I’ve seen. I think next to housing this is the single most important issue in the United States and certainly the largest threat to the U.S. economy."

Former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan is convinced that things are so bad that literally 90% of our states and cities could go bankrupt over the next five years....

#11 Of course on top of everything else, the quadrillion dollar derivatives bubble could burst at any time. Right now we are watching the greatest financial casino in the history of the globe spin around and around and around and everyone is hoping that at some point it doesn't stop. Today, most money on Wall Street is not made by investing in good business ideas. Rather, most money on Wall Street is now made by making the best bets. Unfortunately, at some point the casino is going to come crashing down and the game will be over.

#12 The biggest wildcard of all is war. The Korean peninsula came closer to war in 2010 than it had in decades. The Middle East could literally explode at any time. We live in a world where a single weapon can take out an entire city in an instant. All it would take is a mid-size war or a couple of weapons of mass destruction to throw the entire global economy into absolute turmoil.

Once again, let us hope that none of these economic collapse scenarios happens in 2011.

However, we have got to realize that we can't keep dodging these bullets forever.

As bad as 2010 was, the truth is that it went about as good as any of us could have hoped. Things are still pretty stable and times are still pretty good right now.

But instead of using these times to "party", we should be using them to prepare.

A really, really vicious economic storm is coming and it is going to be a complete and total nightmare. Get ready, hold on tight, and say your prayers.


http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/12-economic-collapse-scenarios-that-we-could-potentially-see-in-2011
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Peak Debt: A term coined by Jaswant Jain in 2006. Debt taken on by an economy must reach a limit.
Then deflation is inevitable as consumption is reduced to repay the debt.

Peak Debt Blog
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Maveri
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Excellent list

A number of those are inching closer day by day

#10 would be my pick atm. That could trigger a few of the other events as well.

Bernake has said the FED will not bail out the municipalities which technically may be true - but he will find another way to get the money to them for sure.

Gold and Silver may spike in time but I think they have suffered losses recently as hedge funds race back to the Euro for short term profits. The next leg down of the US dollar (which will need a Euro surge) should see a spike upwards for Gold and Silver

Basically the washing machine of instability will be trashing the dirty laundry for quite a while longer yet.

The stock market is showing signs of breaking down as company profits are not reflective of their real earnings - but with so much money floating around the market is being held up. I saw quite a good Greenspan youtube video in which he discussed how the markets could be used to fuel growth - hmmm - we will see I guess. They have given up on housing saving the US economy and jobs are up, down, down, up depending on what numbers and when you take the snapshot.

The only thing for certain is that the US will talk up the figures when-ever it can, ignore the bad and keep fleecing the sheeple
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b_b
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Peak Debt
21 Jan 2011, 03:27 PM
Quote:
 
12 Economic Collapse Scenarios That We Could Potentially See In 2011

What could cause an economic collapse in 2011? Well, unfortunately there are quite a few "nightmare scenarios" that could plunge the entire globe into another massive financial crisis. The United States, Japan and most of the nations in Europe are absolutely drowning in debt. The Federal Reserve continues to play reckless games with the U.S. dollar. The price of oil is skyrocketing and the global price of food just hit a new record high. Food riots are already breaking out all over the world. Meanwhile, the rampant fraud and corruption going on in world financial markets is starting to be exposed and the whole house of cards could come crashing down at any time. Most Americans have no idea that a horrific economic collapse could happen at literally any time. There is no way that all of this debt and all of this financial corruption is sustainable. At some point we are going to reach a moment of "total system failure".

So will it be soon? Let's hope not. Let's certainly hope that it does not happen in 2011. Many of us need more time to prepare. Most of our families and friends need more time to prepare. Once this thing implodes there isn't going to be an opportunity to have a "do over". We simply will not be able to put the toothpaste back into the tube again.

So we had all better be getting prepared for hard times. The following are 12 economic collapse scenarios that we could potentially see in 2011....

#1 U.S. debt could become a massive crisis at any moment. China is saying all of the right things at the moment, but many analysts are openly worried about what could happen if China suddenly decides to start dumping all of the U.S. debt that they have accumulated. Right now about the only thing keeping U.S. government finances going is the ability to borrow gigantic amounts of money at extremely low interest rates. If anything upsets that paradigm, it could potentially have enormous consequences for the entire world financial system.

#2 Speaking of threats to the global financial system, it turns out that "quantitative easing 2" has had the exact opposite effect that Ben Bernanke planned for it to have. Bernanke insisted that the main goal of QE2 was to lower interest rates, but instead all it has done is cause interest rates to go up substantially. If Bernanke this incompetent or is he trying to mess everything up on purpose?

#3 The debt bubble that the entire global economy is based on could burst at any time and throw the whole planet into chaos. According to a new report from the World Economic Forum, the total amount of credit in the world increased from $57 trillion in 2000 to $109 trillion in 2009. The WEF says that now the world is going to need another $100 trillion in credit to support projected "economic growth" over the next decade. So is this how the new "global economy" works? We just keep doubling the total amount of debt every decade?

#4 As the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve continue to pump massive amounts of new dollars into the system, the floor could fall out from underneath the U.S. dollar at any time. The truth is that we are already starting to see inflation really accelerate and everyone pretty much acknowledges that official U.S. governments figures for inflation are an absolute joke. According to one new study, the cost of college tuition has risen 286% over the last 20 years, and the cost of "hospital, nursing-home and adult-day-care services" rose 269% during those same two decades. All of this happened during a period of supposedly "low" inflation. So what are price increases going to look like when we actually have "high" inflation?

#5 One of the primary drivers of global inflation during 2011 could be the price of oil. A large number of economists are now projecting that the price of oil could surge well past $100 dollars a barrel in 2011. If that happens, it is going to put significant pressure on the price of almost everything else in the entire global economy. In fact, as I have explained previously, the higher the price of oil goes, the faster the U.S. economy will decline.

#6 Food inflation is already so bad in some areas of the globe that it is setting off massive food riots in nations such as Tunisia and Algeria. In fact, there have been reports of people setting themselves on fire all over the Middle East as a way to draw attention to how desperate they are. So what is going to happen if global food prices go up another 10 or 20 percent and food riots spread literally all over the globe during 2011?

#7 There are persistent rumors that simply will not go away of massive physical gold and silver shortages. Demand for precious metals has never been higher. So what is going to happen when many investors begin to absolutely insist on physical delivery of their precious metals? What is going to happen when the fact that far, far, far more "paper gold" and "paper silver" has been sold than has ever actually physically existed in the history of the planet starts to come out? What would that do to the price of gold and silver?

#8 The U.S. housing industry could plunge the U.S. economy into another recession at any time. The real estate market is absolutely flooded with homes and virtually nobody is buying. This massive oversupply of homes means that the construction of new homes has fallen off a cliff. In 2010, only 703,000 single family, multi-family and manufactured homes were completed. This was a new record low, and it was down 17% from the previous all-time record which had just been set in 2009.

#9 A combination of extreme weather and disease could make this an absolutely brutal year for U.S. farmers. This winter we have already seen thousands of new cold weather and snowfall records set across the United States. Now there is some very disturbing news emerging out of Florida of an "incurable bacteria" that is ravaging citrus crops all over Florida. Is there a reason why so many bad things are happening all of a sudden?

#10 The municipal bond crisis could go "supernova" at any time. Already, investors are bailing out of bonds at a frightening pace. State and local government debt is now sitting at an all-time high of 22 percent of U.S. GDP. According to Meredith Whitney, the municipal bond crisis that we are facing is a gigantic threat to our financial system....

"It has tentacles as wide as anything I’ve seen. I think next to housing this is the single most important issue in the United States and certainly the largest threat to the U.S. economy."

Former Los Angeles mayor Richard Riordan is convinced that things are so bad that literally 90% of our states and cities could go bankrupt over the next five years....

#11 Of course on top of everything else, the quadrillion dollar derivatives bubble could burst at any time. Right now we are watching the greatest financial casino in the history of the globe spin around and around and around and everyone is hoping that at some point it doesn't stop. Today, most money on Wall Street is not made by investing in good business ideas. Rather, most money on Wall Street is now made by making the best bets. Unfortunately, at some point the casino is going to come crashing down and the game will be over.

#12 The biggest wildcard of all is war. The Korean peninsula came closer to war in 2010 than it had in decades. The Middle East could literally explode at any time. We live in a world where a single weapon can take out an entire city in an instant. All it would take is a mid-size war or a couple of weapons of mass destruction to throw the entire global economy into absolute turmoil.

Once again, let us hope that none of these economic collapse scenarios happens in 2011.

However, we have got to realize that we can't keep dodging these bullets forever.

As bad as 2010 was, the truth is that it went about as good as any of us could have hoped. Things are still pretty stable and times are still pretty good right now.

But instead of using these times to "party", we should be using them to prepare.

A really, really vicious economic storm is coming and it is going to be a complete and total nightmare. Get ready, hold on tight, and say your prayers.


http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/12-economic-collapse-scenarios-that-we-could-potentially-see-in-2011
1. Will never happen. The US is a self funding machine due to its floating exchage rate mechanism. Just like japan, debt / GDP could grow to 500% but will remain fully funded since goverment deficits = private savings at all times. It is truely unbleievable how few people understand this very simple concept (for evidence on this please see Japan). For an education, please read Billy Blog.
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/

2. QE has worked so far - higher rates reflect greater optimism. If that optimism is unfounded see rates fall back down again - no matter how much the US goverment borrows.

3. Please read the report, I will link it below. It discusses how and why debt can double sustainably. The actual name of the report is "Sustainable credit". This is pure fear mongering.
http://www.weforum.org/reports/sustainable-credit-report-2011?fo=1

4. Another comment "goverments measure inflation wrong"...Yawn. A collapse in the US dollar would be high stimulatory to the US and feed economic growth.

5. Inflation is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon- M Friedman. People who cherry pick certain commodities and suggest "this will cause inflation" forget this one basic principal. Yes certain good rise faster than inlfation - cuasing certain goods to rise less than inflation. One or two items do not cause the whole system to inflate. So this is again more nonsense.

6. Food prices go up another 20%, more capital is invested in crops and soft comodites. This happened in 2008 and prices collapsed in 2009. All part of a normal agricultural cycle which has lasted ohh about 2000 years (I'm beginning to wonder, is the author 12 years old?).

7. Gold shortage - who cares? It has zero (I'll say it again...ZERO) utility.

8. US housing indutry continues to work through the oversupply created from 2005-2008. Latest figure shows demand is returning. Also recent data shows rising and falling home equity has had no impact on consumption which is what drives the US economy. Facts below

http://www.businessinsider.com/homeowner-equity-and-consumer-spending-2011-1

9. Now we are spreading unsubstantiated rumours on "incurable bacteria". Must be hard these days to come up with 10 "fear mongering" stories.

10. The muni market has had many crisis before (1975 New York muni crisis for instance). The Authors lack of knowledge and possible age lets them daown again here. More bear rubbish. Anyone who want to know more of the Muni market please see here...

http://www.businessinsider.com/putting-the-muni-bond-panic-into-perspective-2011-1



Edited by b_b, 21 Jan 2011, 05:37 PM.
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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Strindberg
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Now there is some very disturbing news emerging out of Florida of an "incurable bacteria" that is ravaging citrus crops all over Florida. Is there a reason why so many bad things are happening all of a sudden?


I'll add “incurable bacteria” to the list of triggers that have been posed on these forums over the last 10 years for an Australian House Price Crash.

We now have (with bears' comments):

1. Interest rates rising (they did rise, but it'll be different next time)

2.Inflation (everything will rise in price but houses will crash in price)

3. Iranian Oil Bourse (will help kill the US dollar)

4. Death of the US dollar (bringing world depression)

5. What goes up must come down (fundamental law but it doesn't apply to gold or silver)

6. Everything reverts to mean (apart from the price of gold and silver)

7. Icelandic volcano eruption (there'll be lots more of these due to climate change)

8. Baby boomers all selling tomorrow (so we can get cheap houses without working)

9. Aged to be forced to sell by the government (past their useful age anyway)

10. GFC (we would be in a nice depression now if Rudd hadn't spoilt it with stimulus)

11. GFC II (no stimulus next time)

12. Rising Unemployment (already here – the ABS stats are lies)

13. LVRs to be 60% max (a bit tough on some but who cares, I've got a mint of money)

14. Lending to be restricted to 3 years of one income (I don't need any more than that – sod those who do)

15. Climate change (already working with floods and droughts)

16. Oil price going over $100 (didn't do much last time but it will the next time)

17. End of negative gearing (government will need the money)

18. End of CGT discount (government will need the money)

19. Land tax to be introduced for everyone (government will need the money)

20. Credit falling off a cliff (happening now – ABS is fudging the figures)

21. Defaults at epidemic level (all hushed up)

22. Incurable bacteria (still waiting for bears comments on that)
Housing costs to Income broadly unchanged since 1994 - re-ratified here
The People of Australia have the highest median wealth in the World
2002-2012 10 year house price growth the SLOWEST since 1952-1962
"There are two kinds of people in this world: ones that fiddle around wondering whether a thing's right or wrong and guys like us." (Hugo to Gagin in Ride the Pink Horse)
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Maveri
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b_b
21 Jan 2011, 05:36 PM
...

10. The muni market has had many crisis before (1975 New York muni crisis for instance). The Authors lack of knowledge and possible age lets them daown again here. More bear rubbish. Anyone who want to know more of the Muni market please see here...

http://www.businessinsider.com/putting-the-muni-bond-panic-into-perspective-2011-1

When you look at the insider business report, they sourced their information from another report.

In the referred report is by a company involved in the mutual fund markets are they not?

Anyhow - the span of time they give for their defaulting spans from '1970-2009' bloody hell - I could average out all sorts of things and show that they looked ok over that span of time too. What others have focused on (i.e. FSN) has been the recent rise in debt.

http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/CEFCommentary/2011/1/18/misconceptions-currently-hurting-municipal-bonds

NY for example recently made it's public servants take days off a month with no pay. I don't believe this has been done before and spells a situation that is requiring unprecedented measure to try and contain.

For an option that isn't as closely tied to the muni bonds doing ok, there's this article Muni bonds in trouble

The article you referenced tried to in my opinion average out the problem by states. If one looks at the problem by states according to debt then it's a different story. California and New York for example are in a lot of trouble and they represent a huge proportion of the problem - so yeah, looking at the number of states doesn't tell the whole story but looking at which states are the big players certainly does.

EDIT:

Now we see moves to look for ways for the states to declare bankruptsy.

Why would they do this if their positions were sound?

Another GM style bailout?

NYT Reports States Looking For Ways To File Bankruptcy

EDIT2:

Lets add the Irish government collapse to the mix as well :-)

Irish government collapses six cabinet ministers resign

Quote:
 
Irish Government Collapses, Six Cabinet Members Resign, Election March 11; How To Negotiate Haircuts

In a fitting tribute to a disgraceful performance by Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen in which Cowen crammed losses of Irish banks down the throats of taxpayers, his government has at long last collapsed. Six cabinet members (40%) resigned representing justice, health, trade and enterprise, defense and transport. Earlier in the week his foreign minister resigned making the total six.

I have a wide selection of articles to choose from. Here is a representative sample.

Irish Central reports Irish leader Brian Cowen calls an election for March 11

Irish Prime Minster Brian Cowen has called an Irish election for March 11th.

Speaking to a packed parliament, Cowen stated that he was reassigning six cabinet portfolios after six of his ministers resigned.

The proceedings in Irish Parliament had been suspended as opposition leaders refused to move forward until Prime Minister Brian Cowen explained the six recent ministerial resignations.

Rumors of an impending collapse of the government and an immediate election were circulating as the Green Party met to decide whether they would withdraw support for the government.

Earlier today parliament was suspended after rowdy scenes. Opposition leader, Fine Gael’s Enda Kenny demanded that proceeding be suspended until Cowen could explain what was going on within the Government.

Kenny said “This is the worst government in history…This would not have happened even in the days of great dictators. It is unprecedented, what you have done.”

He continued “These are the last days of the worst government in the history of the state.”

Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Innovation Batt O’Keefe tendered his resignation this morning. Wednesday saw Mary Harney from Health, Dermot Ahern from Justice, Noel Dempsey from transport and Tony Killeen from defense all resigned. These followed the resignation of Micheal Martin from foreign affairs who resigned after a failed leadership challenge.

Kenny said that the actions of Cowen had been a “cowardly, disgraceful act” and said he was “refusing to come in here today to tell the people of his country what is happening with a Government that has imploded, with a Government that is dysfunctional, that has disintegrated, and that had let our people down”.

etc etc etc
Edited by Maveri, 21 Jan 2011, 10:22 PM.
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Trollie
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Peak Debt
21 Jan 2011, 03:27 PM
Gee wiz, don't they love to recycle garbage!
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Terry
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b_b
21 Jan 2011, 05:36 PM
1. Will never happen. The US is a self funding machine due to its floating exchage rate mechanism. Just like japan, debt / GDP could grow to 500% but will remain fully funded since goverment deficits = private savings at all times. It is truely unbleievable how few people understand this very simple concept (for evidence on this please see Japan). For an education, please read Billy Blog.
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/

Good grief. The theory that the universe is continuously expanding, which can be plausibly explained through observation and mathematical modelling. Some nutter thinks that a construct based on unproven economic theory works similarly to nature.
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Rufus
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Terry
11 Dec 2016, 01:35 PM
Good grief. The theory that the universe is continuously expanding, which can be plausibly explained through observation and mathematical modelling. Some nutter thinks that a construct based on unproven economic theory works similarly to nature.
You're behind the 8 ball on this too.
True David Murray style.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Terry
11 Dec 2016, 01:35 PM
Good grief. The theory that the universe is continuously expanding
Roddy, I have a theory that your brain is continuously contracting.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Rastus2
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Khaderbhai
11 Dec 2016, 07:00 PM
Roddy, I have a theory that your brain is continuously contracting.
abuse.. you can dish it out, but like most idiots, can not take it back without crying foul.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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