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Australian Population Growth and Migration
Topic Started: 10 Jan 2011, 11:16 AM (21,824 Views)
Shadow
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Sprog
10 Jan 2011, 05:29 PM
"Negative financial conditions"? Where? In Australia?

Surely you've previously represented the opposite...?
Not at all, I have often spoken about the negative financial conditions experienced during the GFC. While they certainly weren't as bad as gloom-mongerers like Steve Keen predicted (double digit unemployment, 40% house price crash, severe recession etc.) we did experience a quarter of negative growth, a stock market crash, and a rise in the unemployment rate.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Shadow
Please just add the trend line to your graphic. That is important.
As for babies being the catalyst for a family upgrade, well debatable really and certainly not a number that is not represented as 'population growth and demand'.

So how many families have to upgrade because of more kids? I though you just proved we have the biggest homes in the world with what, 2,6 people per home, so your argument falls over. They have kids and no not upgrade simply because of your own logic.
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Shadow
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pauk
10 Jan 2011, 07:28 PM
So how many families have to upgrade because of more kids? I though you just proved we have the biggest homes in the world with what, 2,6 people per home, so your argument falls over. They have kids and no not upgrade simply because of your own logic.
Will, I did for a start. We had a pretty big home to begin with, but when we had a child a couple of years ago we moved to a bigger one. I know a lot of my friends also upgraded accommodation after their family grew in size. Not sure why you think the argument falls over... having the biggest houses on average in the world doesn't prevent people from upgrading to larger houses when their families grow.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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earthsta
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Shadow
10 Jan 2011, 07:49 PM
having the biggest houses on average in the world doesn't prevent people from upgrading to larger houses when their families grow.
No, but suddenly having only one breadwinner does.
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earthsta
10 Jan 2011, 11:32 PM
No, but suddenly having only one breadwinner does.
+1 and I am off to bed. Logic, love it..........
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Shadow
10 Jan 2011, 06:37 PM


As for updating the charts, trend lines etc... don't really have the time right now but might get a chance later.
Can you update it yet, with trend and new data from Jan to nov, that is 11 months and should shown another year to your graph. Please?
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Shadow
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pauk
13 Jan 2011, 10:40 AM
Can you update it yet, with trend and new data from Jan to nov, that is 11 months and should shown another year to your graph. Please?
Pauk, here you go...

Posted Image

Departures has been on a slow steady uptrend since 2004.

Arrivals was on a steeper uptrend until the GFC hit, after which the trend has been falling.

So the net migration trend is currently down (but still positive) since the GFC arrived and the government cut the migration intake.

Novembers net migration figure of 5020 was low, but not as low as Dec 2009 (2650 people).

There seems to be a very regular dip in the net migration numbers around Christmas. December is always lower than November, so it is very likely that next months net figure will be negative. However, the numbers always jump again in January. November and December are generally the lowest months every year.

Hope this helps.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Thanks, excellent work and see you can avoid the negatives by combining the categories. lol, anyway great work and clearly now, I am sure you agree we see the trend clearly.

By combining the categories, it does not show that more long term visitors in November left, than came, a negative number.... If our permanent and LT departures outnumber our permanent and LT arrivals, well, unheard of I would think. Based on the projection of the trends, and given the national floods, when will they cross over?

the other amazement to me is that this chart is not widely used as population growth seems to mean so much to so many aussies, and yet the reality is far more stark after actually seeing your chart. Have you seen this basic chart anywhere else before?


Could you not combine the categories and use my legend of New Permanents (net), Long Term (net) and Returning Residents (net) for your time scale....please, all reference given to your time and work....please......i am not that good at excel and was having trouble with the charting, whereas you seem adept..
Posted Image
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Shadow
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pauk
13 Jan 2011, 12:42 PM
the other amazement to me is that this chart is not widely used as population growth seems to mean so much to so many aussies, and yet the reality is far more stark after actually seeing your chart. Have you seen this basic chart anywhere else before?

Could you not combine the categories and use my legend of New Permanents (net), Long Term (net) and Returning Residents (net) for your time scale....please, all reference given to your time and work....please......i am not that good at excel and was having trouble with the charting, whereas you seem adept..
Keep in mind that migration is only one component of population growth. The other component is natural growth,

From the ABS population clock...

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/94713ad445ff1425ca25682000192af2/1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument

Quote:
 
* one birth every 1 minute and 44 seconds,
* one death every 3 minutes and 44 seconds


As for creating more charts... time is short here, and you seem to have managed well enough with your chart above, so I'm sure you can give it a go...
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Jordan
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We need to stop immigration from countries that have opposing views to ours. We have enough muslim and asian ghettos already in Sydney and Melbourne and the Australian people have not even been asked what they want for their country.

Why should young Australians have to pay taxes so that some elderly Chinese couple can receive top quality medical care and live in heavily subsidized aged accommodation. Put them on a plane and let them "enjoy" all the benefits of their home nation.

Immigration is nothing but the destruction and dismantling of the existing culture and way of life.

Australians should by all rights be marching in the streets over this issue. The selling out of their home and country by a handful of men is inexcusable.

I have nothing against immigrants, they are only trying to improve their lot in life. The fault lies with the traitorous politicians and businessmen who have no respect for the values of Australia and will do anything to make a buck. Even sell out a whole country if need be.

If I had my way the door would be shut and we would take only humanitarian refugees who are prepared to properly assimilate and respect local cultures and customs. If you're not prepared to do that you can return to whence you came and practice the way of life you are so unwilling to give up.



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