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Australian Population Growth and Migration
Topic Started: 10 Jan 2011, 11:16 AM (21,825 Views)
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Shadow
Get the point using Sydney prices, however please draw the trend line on your graphic to now. 150,000?
The long term trend line would be well below the current levels still, so I expect to see the immediate trend still down.
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jrsnr
10 Jan 2011, 04:33 PM
I wonder whether this may be an artifact of the increasing number of people that are degree qualified in that age range. It is my understanding that prior to Whitlam's instigating free-for-all university education the percentage of population with a university degree was very low, i.e. about 2 or 3%.

I do not think any got free education. That ended in 1989.
Your point is not missed however, from my sources they are also saying fek it to the HECS. Leave and never pay it.
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See what the PC has to say.....
http://www.pc.gov.au/research/commissionresearch/population-migration
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The grey economy that we are now entering will not pass after the BB go, longevity has ensured that an aged society is here to stay with the majority of people above 50 by 2015. Note, now it is 36. (corrected by master ray. Gold star)
That means a fundamental shift in all aspects of our core Australia, such as education, health, growing deficits and reduced GDP, lower standards of living just to name a few. It is not a depression or a recession that will lift. It will not, we will adjust to it. We have no choice as people are real and so is their age and number.

To me the answers may come from asking the right questions.

Do we want to limit immigration? Should be, how do we limit emigration?
How do we limit the population growth? Should be, how do we maintain our population that we have?
Is population growth good or bad? Should be, is population decline a possibility?

Statements of utter shite.....
We are projected to be at 36 million by 2050. Based on variables that are changing rapidly even as I tap. Predict, not project.

Possible answers?
The aged, from success to significance and the young from exclusion to inclusion.
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Sprog
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Shadow
10 Jan 2011, 01:32 PM
Remember that the recent fall in net migration was a direct result of negative financial conditions. If the economy improves, so too will migration numbers. If the economy is reasonably strong, and the mining boom unfolds as most economists expect, then we will probably see net migration figures ramping up again. Business and industry will be complaining about skills shortages and asking for more workers.
"Negative financial conditions"? Where? In Australia?

Surely you've previously represented the opposite...?
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Sprog
10 Jan 2011, 05:29 PM
"Negative financial conditions"? Where? In Australia?

Surely you've previously represented the opposite...?
Perhaps, but shadow is showing the abilities to think, create, learn and share. Now the learn may involve changing ones views entirely. So.....you to could learn as we all do.
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To Shadow (yours in black)
I didn't state a decline. Annual permanent net migration has still been positive since the nineties.
Agree positive growth, no questions about that.
The rate of change in the annual figures has been fairly flat, but net annual migration was always positive.
Yes and that is the trend line I want you to add, please.....
There has been positive net migration every year - i.e. a net gain, every year.
Agree positive growth, thanks from our old souls for that. We would certainly be having a different conversation if immigration was 0% over the last 20 years. To me, our natural growth rates and numbers are really the only good numbers to project forward. Net immigration is full of too many variables and if that long term trend here is downward, well god help us all....or more babies please!
Net gain means more demand. Even if the net gain becomes smaller it is still a gain. More people, not less.
Agree net means demand. Now use these numbers instead of our population growth, as babies do not buy houses. Yes I know they grow up and then, well, they are sitting on the fence currently, or emigrating....lol

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Ray White
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pauk
10 Jan 2011, 05:22 PM
The grey economy that we are now entering will not pass after the BB go, longevity has ensured that an aged society is here to stay with the majority of people above 50 by 2015. Note, now it is 39.
More crap from Pauk.

The median age is not 39.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3201.0

Between 30 June 2009 and 2010 the median age remained relatively steady at 36.8 years.

The median age is NOT going to be "above 50 by 2015". Not even by 2051.

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3222.0Main+Features12004%20to%202101?OpenDocument

Quote:
 
POPULATION AGEING

The ageing of Australia's population, already evident in the current age structure, will continue. This is the result of sustained low levels of fertility combined with increasing life expectancy at birth. The median age of Australia's population, 36.4 years at June 2004, is projected to increase to between 39.9 years and 41.7 years in 2021 (Series A and C respectively) and to between 44.6 years and 48.2 years in 2051 (Series A and C).


People might take you more seriously Pauk if you didn't make stuff up.
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Sorry, I stand corrected at 36.8 and rising.
I sort of knew that number when I did some Cals on the ages spreadsheet I have for Australia.

To make it simple for you, longevity is the great unknown here and more people living longer will accelerate this average age. Moores law may soon apply to medicine.

However, well spotted Master Ray.

I did post that bit in from another forum, and I probably did not really feel to be exact there. Here, well I hope you continue to analyze the numbers.

If you have read it, what is your thoughts about the immigration report?
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Shadow
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pauk
10 Jan 2011, 05:37 PM
Agree net means demand. Now use these numbers instead of our population growth, as babies do not buy houses. Yes I know they grow up and then, well, they are sitting on the fence currently, or emigrating....lol

Babies don't buy houses, but they are often a catalyst for the parents to upgrade to a larger house or to buy their first house (if they rent or live with their own parents).

And of course at any given time the babies who were born 20-30 years ago might be looking to buy.

As for updating the charts, trend lines etc... don't really have the time right now but might get a chance later.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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