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Australian Population Growth and Migration
Topic Started: 10 Jan 2011, 11:16 AM (21,805 Views)
ThePauk
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Shadow
14 Jan 2011, 06:00 PM
<br />I have not claimed that the current or future population growth rate is 1.1%. The last official figure was 1.7%. The next official figure will be a bit lower (maybe 1.6%) but certainly not as low as the figure of 1.1% that you stated. Please provide your calculations showing how you reached a figure of 1.1%.<br /><br />Remember that 43% of the total population growth rate is attributed to natural growth, not immigration, and the natural growth rate was still rising.<br /><br />Posted Image<br />
What is you guess for next weeks number Shads?
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Shadow
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ThePauk
18 Sep 2015, 02:30 PM
What is you guess for next weeks number Shads?
Probably around 1.3%.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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ThePauk
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Shadow
18 Sep 2015, 02:41 PM
Probably around 1.3%.
Mmmmm, that low. Noted.
Long way down from the 2.2% is it not?
Have you also noted natural growth has started to decline?
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ThePauk
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"Turnbull argued that “the West is dying out” at a scale “matched only by the Black Death” without a public policy solution to the declining birth rate, arguing fertility rather than immigration was at the heart of Australia’s population challenge.
“It’s the birth rate, stupid!” he insisted.
“And if we keep ignoring it, we will be stupid indeed.”

http://indaily.com.au/news/2015/09/16/its-the-birthrate-stupid-turnbulls-sa-pitch-to-working-mums/


For interest, check out this graph

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/un-fertility-rate-projections-2015-8

Posted Image
Edited by ThePauk, 19 Sep 2015, 11:54 AM.
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ThePauk
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http://abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0?OpenDocument

1.35% , 316,000 people.

Natural Increase
The preliminary estimate of natural increase for the year ended 31 March 2015 was 142,900 people, a decrease of 9.7%, or 15,400 people, compared with natural increase for the year ended 31 March 2014 (158,300 people).

Births
The preliminary estimate of births for the year ended 31 March 2015 (298,400 births) decreased by 8,800 births from the year ended 31 March 2014 (307,200 births).

Deaths
The preliminary estimate of deaths for the year ended 31 March 2015 (155,500 deaths) increased by 6,600 deaths from the year ended 31 March 2014 (148,900 deaths).

Net Overseas Migration
For the year ended 31 March 2015, Australia's preliminary net overseas migration (NOM) estimate was 173,100 people. This was 16.0% (33,000 people) lower than the net overseas migration estimated for the year ended 31 March 2014 (206,100 people).

NOM arrivals decreased by 2.0% (9,900 people) between the years ended 31 March 2014 (485,400 people) and 31 March 2015 (475,500 people).
NOM departures increased by 8.3% (23,100 people) between the years ended 31 March 2014 (279,300 people) and 31 March 2015 (302,400 people).
The preliminary net overseas migration estimate for the March quarter 2015 (58,800 people) was 15.9% (11,100 people) lower than the estimate for the March quarter 2014 (69,900 people).

Australia experiences lowest population growth in almost a decade

Australia's population growth rate has slowed to a rate last seen nearly 10 years ago, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
"In the year to March 2015, Australia's population growth rate continued to slow from its peak in 2008-09 and is now just below the 20-year average growth rate," said Denise Carlton from the ABS.
"The Northern Territory recorded its lowest growth rate in 11 years, at 0.2 per cent for the year ending March 2015. This is 80 per cent lower than that of March 2014. Net interstate migration losses were the greatest contributor to this slower growth, with the territory recording its largest ever interstate migration loss in the year to March 2015," said Ms. Carlton.
"Western Australia also recorded slower growth. In the past two years, net overseas migration to the state has dropped by 71 per cent, while net interstate migration has dropped to the point where the state has seen a net interstate loss. This has not been seen in over 10 years in this state."
"Victoria and Queensland were the only states recording a net gain from interstate migration."
Australia's population grew by 316,000 people (1.4 per cent) to reach 23.7 million by the end of March 2015.
Net overseas migration contributed 173,100 people to the population (16 per cent lower than the previous year), and accounted for 55 per cent of Australia's total population growth.
Victoria continues to have the fastest population growth rate in the country, growing by 1.7 per cent (97,500 people).
Over the year, natural increase contributed 142,900 people to Australia's population, made up of 298,400 births (3 per cent lower than the previous year) and 155,500 deaths (4 per cent higher than the previous year).
Edited by ThePauk, 24 Sep 2015, 12:50 PM.
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Will
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Looks like death is starting to rise at an increasing pace as you would expect with the aging of the boomers.

Personally I welcome a slowing population growth, both here and worldwide. The world is still finite in size. We need Africa on board however.

I have seen the odd YouTube vid on the 'elites' wanting population growth to cease and even drop a bit. Well I'm not elite, and I want this too.

And thanks Pauk for the info, you probably feel you don't get many thanks around here.
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ThePauk
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Will
24 Sep 2015, 03:41 PM
Looks like death is starting to rise at an increasing pace as you would expect with the aging of the boomers.

Personally I welcome a slowing population growth, both here and worldwide. The world is still finite in size. We need Africa on board however.

I have seen the odd YouTube vid on the 'elites' wanting population growth to cease and even drop a bit. Well I'm not elite, and I want this too.

And thanks Pauk for the info, you probably feel you don't get many thanks around here.
Will
Thanks, and no, much much thanks, however I do know my posts are valued by many and offensive to others. All part of the game...lol

Yes, I agree a global slowing population is desirable and in fact most likely.

Note that 30% of the growth to 10 or 11 billion is the demographic momentum, or more people living longer, not new births.

Posted Image
Mmmm....

Tasmainia Natural Growth
2009 – 2983
2014 – 1421
So perhaps by 2020, Tasmanian will be the first state to have natural decline…followed by SA
Not far away at all….


A good read
https://www.dss.gov.au/about-the-department/publications-articles/research-publications/social-policy-research-paper-series/number-13-the-policy-makers-guide-to-population-ageing-key-concepts-and-issues?HTML
Edited by ThePauk, 24 Sep 2015, 06:16 PM.
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zaph
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ThePauk
24 Sep 2015, 04:08 PM
however I do know my posts are valued by many
20 digits and I still have half of them not valuing your posts. Find me 5, yes, just five members that value your posts?
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newjez
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zaph
24 Sep 2015, 05:27 PM
20 digits and I still have half of them not valuing your posts. Find me 5, yes, just five members that value your posts?
I value everyone's posts bar the three or more stooges. I think pauk must be following a different path to me as his posts are often on a tangent to my interests. But he adds value to the discussion as do most here. So I guess you could count me as one. Population growth interests me.
Timely by ambrose


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11882915/Deflation-supercyle-is-over-as-world-runs-out-of-workers.html
Edited by newjez, 24 Sep 2015, 05:52 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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ThePauk
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zaph
24 Sep 2015, 05:27 PM
20 digits and I still have half of them not valuing your posts. Find me 5, yes, just five members that value your posts?
Zaph, given the substance of what you add, or more to the point, do not add. I would think users would value my posts approx 100% more valuable than yours.
Thanks for your input, or lack thereof in most debates. You are a crowd heckler and not mush else most of the times.
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