Hi Pauk, as discussed before, the problem is that these NOM figures are based on Net Overseas Movement, rather than Migration, and the movement figures are not a true representation of final migration figures because they 'double count' the movements of people who travel in and out of Australia multiple times per year, and that even includes airline crew. They are also affected by people who fill in their migration cards incorrectly - for example they say they are leaving permanently and then decide to return.
The ABS perform a lot of cross checking and processing of the raw movement figures before they release the actual permanent migration data, which is released much later in the year due to the extra processing required to ensure the final numbers are accurate. I only discovered this after I had made the first chart, and for this reason I'm not really interested in updating the chart because the data is misleading and doesn't actually tell us about permanent migration at all. We need to wait for the official ABS migration and population growth data to be released.
I'm not sure why double counting in this case discredits the figures. IF someone departs and arrives multiple times they add equally to departure and arrival statistics. The difference between the arrrivals and departures figure therefore is still meaningful, while the absolute value of each may not be.
Wu laugh at pauk now you admit you wrong and deceit?
I just noted his comment. i did not say I agreed, or the chart invalid. In fact, it is the most accurate chart I have seen to date and I do not actually agree with Shadows logic or the invalid nature of the data. We are not counting short term visitorts anmd that would be the group hadow pointed out most that would vary. The data comes from the abs and while some of the abs comments are bs, like how many emigratnts actually return, the migration numbers seem quite correct and very little adjustmnent is made to them, as Shadow indicated.
Please Shadow, post the excel file shadow, even if you do not want to update it for the reasons you gave. i do....
Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia 2008-09 (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.
There were 10,510 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during January 2011, a decrease of 8.4% compared with January 2010 (11,470 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (30.0%), followed by people born in China (10.5%), the UK, CIs & IOM (8.2%) and India (7.7%).
There were 12,090 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during January 2011, an increase of 3.3% compared with January 2010 (11,700 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, out of the 72,100 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 14,370 spent 12 months or more overseas.
OK, to summarise the information from this thread.
The Department of Immigration data shows how long people stated they were going to leave for. It doesn't show how long they actually left for - it just tells you how long they thought they would be gone when they filled in their immigration card on departure.
There are issues with double counting of this data when people leave Australia more than once - for example frequent travelers, airline crew, or foreign students who travel home multiple times a year. If a student travels back home to China three times a year, and each time he incorrectly fills out his immigration card to say he is leaving permanently, then he is counted as three permanent departures.
Every time someone leaves Australia they fill out a card stating when they plan to return. Many people fill these cards out incorrectly, either by mistake or deliberately. Many people just change their minds later about how long they plan to be away. However the cards are simply collected by the Department of Immigration and they count how many cards say the traveler intends to be away for more than 12 months. If the same person leaves 5 times, and completes five cards, then they are counted as five departures. As a result, the raw movement data is not an accurate reflection of how many people actually left for more than 12 months.
The ABS determined that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year.
The Department of Immigration (here) and the ABS (here) both agree that the raw movement data is not an accurate reflection of final migration numbers due to the reasons outlined.
If some one leave 5 times then they return 5 times....der..... .
The card confirms what I said...
So they either fill in a duration of overseas stay, or they state they are leaving permanently.
If a person leaves three times in one year incorrectly ticking the permanent departure box, or they enter a duration of two years (or whatever), and then each time they return they select temporary return, then they will obviously be recorded incorrectly as three permanent departures. Even if a person leaves once 'permanently' and then when they get to their home country they change their mind and decide to return to Australia 'temporarily' then this is still counted as a permanent departure by the Dept. of Immigration.
The ABS determined that the majority of people who say they are leaving permanently end up returning. Basically, over half of travelers fill out the card incorrectly, which doesn't really surprise me... many travelers probably can't even read it properly, or are too tired and fed up with their mammoth flight to fill it in with any diligence.
Or as Sprog mentions in the other thread (something I wasn't aware of)...
Quote:
There is a very good reason for Australian citizens or permanent residents to misreport their intentions when departing the country. If they don't declare an intention to depart permanently, they remain liable to pay Australian taxes on overseas assignments (thanks for nuthin, Kevin Rudd). If they (ahem) assume and declare their departure to be permanent, or give themselves the benefit of any doubt they may have, at the very least they defer this obligation, and can argue the toss with the ATO later.
Anyway, you have chosen to disbelieve what the ABS says about this, which is up to you of course.
Really, your conclusion is that over half, incorrectly filled out such a basic card?
Therefore the statement, without any proof or referenced data by the abs, that 58,000 out of the 72,000 returned within one year, is true, based on incorrect cards?
Why not fix it, if it is so broken?
Why report such dodgy numbers at all?
No. The numbers are correct, the statement is bs, or at the very least does not represent today, or even close to it. 1. Students must now return home, and they are. 2. Out of the 86,000 that left 09/10, I would estimate, taking into account the 30,000 who did say more than 5 years of the Non Australian born residents, 20% return within 1 year.
'analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year'
Yes, I know you disagree with them - no need to say it again.
And you believe them?
I think you know you chart, originally done when you did believe the numbers and that would show a worsening situation and not suit your bias, that you are out and now you use a silly argument like 58,000 out of 72,000 filled out the cards incorrectly........
I now where you stand. Now you want to argue your chart was shite. Funny it looks like other charts like the abs chart, just that you have the added trend lines. The abs charts are shit....
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