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Australian Population Growth and Migration
Topic Started: 10 Jan 2011, 11:16 AM (21,826 Views)
Shadow
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pauk
10 Jan 2011, 01:38 PM
The trend does look like a few years, look harder....
Trends are often easier to spot using charts. I have charted the Permanent, Long Term, and Total net migration to Australia as shown.

Posted Image

The trend is rising total net migration since the nineties until last year, followed by one year of falling net migration, bringing the current net migration rate back down to 2007 levels. Note that permanent net migration has been pretty flat since the early nineties. In fact it is the (much higher) long term migration rate that has really been impacting population growth in recent times.

I don't think one year of data is sufficient to claim a change in the trend. Last year's drop can be easily explained by the public backlash against Kevin Rudd's 'Big Australia' policy and an expectation of higher unemployment levels as a result of the GFC.

The migration figures might rise again over the next year or two, or they might not. We'll have to wait and see. Then we will know if the trend has really changed.
Edited by Shadow, 10 Jan 2011, 02:22 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Thanks Shadow
Hard not to see a trend going when all three are pointing down, don't you think.?
I do not think that internal decisions and politics drive long term visitors main thinking. Generally I think it is affordability and opportunity. Both now in debate....

Could you graph the numbers independently showing both arrivals and departures for permanent and long term, with the result another colour, please?

And to my point, do temporary visitors really drive demand for new purchases or new rentals, if so many are leaving?
Renters now 32% are they not?

Would not the decline, as you state since the 1990's of permanents mean less demand?

Why did it happen this last year and not post GFC?

Please, your interpretations in terms of supply and demand as your work and logic is valued.

Thanks
Paul Collins
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to davel
Agree, a major factor along with a realistic view of our property bubble, and the growing affordability of living.
In my view, the AUD has a BIG effect here. Many Aussies and non-Aussies currently living here must look at the AUD and think its a great chance to set up somewhere else, if thats in their thinking. Particularly the case if they have equity also.
Likewise many potential immigrants must look at the AUD and the property market and think twice about coming here as the cost of setting up is becoming ever higher. Exception is people involved in the resources boom who obviously have a great opportunity regardless.
It reminds me a bit of the issue with Poles in the UK in the early 2000s. People thought they would all just come and stay in ever-increasing numbers, but many didnt - once the recession happened loads just went home with a nice wedge to set up on.
Same trend here with the Brits....
In my view immigration will be highly-sensitive to these issues and will be a factor which restores some balance (both to currency and property market).
A balance, how?
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earthsta
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Shadow
10 Jan 2011, 12:09 PM
Pauk, I'm not sure this is such a big deal. We know the government tightened up migration rules recently, partly due to expectations of much higher unemployment levels caused by the GFC, and partly because of the popular backlash against Kevin Rudd's 'Big Australia' policy. Nevertheless, net permanent migration last year was still higher than during the 2001-2004 period. (You may remember that house prices were booming during that period).

"Last year, last year, last year"

Always looking in the rear view mirror. it is lower now and will in all liklihood, continue to trend down.

Try looking out the windshield
Edited by earthsta, 10 Jan 2011, 03:20 PM.
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earthsta
10 Jan 2011, 03:14 PM
"Last year, last year, last year"

Always looking in the rear view mirror. it is lower now and will in all liklihood, continue to trend down.

Try looking out the wondshield
Are there any updated abs stats that Master Shadow could use to bring us up to date?
The here and now, welcome to the home earth.....lol

Love "wonderscreen", as that is what it is, predictions based on projections of actual numbers and master Sdadow shows great wisdom in "looking out the back" to see what actually happened, essential....
In the case of immigration, projections are impossible, so predictions also do not hold much weight.
In the case of ageing, projections are accurate.
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earthsta
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One data point doesn't make a trend. To determine whether there is downward 'trend' in annual migration, we would need to see more than one year of annual migration falling.


A trend has to start somewhere. This is it. Denial wont help your cause now

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This is as bad as the bears who claim house prices are now 'crashing' after one or two months of negative growth. I think you need a few data points before you can claim the trend has changed.


House prices have been falling since at least may. Your friends at RP Data say so

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Remember that the recent fall in net migration was a direct result of negative financial conditions.


Right....so they went home to, or stayed in their own countries, where conditions were even worse :rolleyes:
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Shadow
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pauk
10 Jan 2011, 02:50 PM
Hard not to see a trend going when all three are pointing down, don't you think.?

'All three' are components of the same thing. One is a sum of the other two.

Have a look at the chart below for Sydney house prices. Prices fell for two months last year as you can see. Was it the beginning of a new downtrend?

Posted Image

pauk
10 Jan 2011, 02:50 PM
Would not the decline, as you state since the 1990's of permanents mean less demand?

I didn't state a decline. Annual permanent net migration has still been positive since the nineties.

The rate of change in the annual figures has been fairly flat, but net annual migration was always positive.

There has been positive net migration every year - i.e. a net gain, every year.

Net gain means more demand. Even if the net gain becomes smaller it is still a gain. More people, not less.

pauk
10 Jan 2011, 02:50 PM
Why did it happen this last year and not post GFC?

It takes a while for policy changes to be implemented. The government reduced the migration intake numbers and removed skills from the skilled migration list.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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davel
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"In my view immigration will be highly-sensitive to these issues and will be a factor which restores some balance (both to currency and property market).
A balance, how? "

All I meant is that lower immigration because of the strong AUD and high property prices will be ONE of the factors that bring about a reduction in both of those assets. The Aussie economy will at some point hit the skids, and the AUD and property prices will drop. Paradoxically, this happening will again potentially stimulate immigration because the 'startup cost' will now be less prohibitive.

IMO, much of the overbuilding that has been happening in some areas (eg Gold Coast, Melbourne) is based on a mistaken belief that net immigration would continue at very high levels, or even accelerate.

This then becomes self-defeating because it booms too far and immigrants stop coming and some current residents start to leave.

If you look at Shadows graph then you see the run-up in immigration coinciding quite well with a run-up in property prices. I don't want to exaggerate the link, but there certainly is one.

If you think of Australia as a stock, then its trading at very high levels right now. Some holders are profit-taking, and potential buyers are looking askance at its price and not buying.
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Long term arrivals decreased while long term departures increased.
Permanent departures for both aussie born and non aussie born are peaking at record numbers while incoming permanent residents declined to 2006 levels.
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jrsnr
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pauk
10 Jan 2011, 01:34 PM
Our real problem is to stop our Aussie 25 to 35, as the largest group to piss off, to stay. Any suggestions?
I wonder whether this may be an artifact of the increasing number of people that are degree qualified in that age range. It is my understanding that prior to Whitlam's instigating free-for-all university education the percentage of population with a university degree was very low, i.e. about 2 or 3%.

Now-a-days the percentage of population with degree qualifications is around 25% and government (federal) are pushing to have that up to about 35% within the next ten years.

A lot of people with degree qualifications can benefit greatly by taking a job overseas, in particular Europe and USA.

I know of many people who have left for overseas after completing their uni degrees to search out better opportunities than available in Australia.

In particular with the growing number of degree qualified there has also been an increase in the number of masters and PhD's. I don't know whether there is a lot of opportunity in Australia for PhD's?
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