I was not sure about the definition of short term. Still not really, lol. I just knew were not including them in our charts and for good reason. I also believe that they (STV who stay over 12 months) should not be included in the abs population growth percentage. If you do, fine, I do not.
I would like to know more about how the abs reclassify people from STV to LTV domestically as the abs reported that far more left than came in November, 2010 It is heading south and the reason we should, I, will do that chart when I can find a better excel bot. Any offers?
I also believe that they (STV who stay over 12 months) should not be included in the abs population growth percentage. If you do, fine, I do not.
If someone is here for 12 months or more then they are likely to be out of short term accommodation (hotels etc) and into long term accommodation (renting or buying houses). Long term visa holders are permitted to buy property. Short term are not. So for the purposes of this discussion the long term figures will certainly be influencing the housing market.
Whether or not you agree with the official definition is irrelevant to the discussion. The official definition is quite clear. More than 12 months is long term.
Quote: Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics.
We agree on how the abs treat the numbers and define the terms. Done. What do you make of their updated page? Why do it and why have "What if...." as part of their official release?
Quote: Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics.
We agree on how the abs treat the numbers and define the terms. Done. What do you make of their updated page? Why do it and why have "What if...." as part of their official release?
Explaining a limitation to a particular data set does not make that data set 'shite'. In fact, it actually improves the usability of the data.
In this document they explain how they improve, cross-check and verify that preliminary raw data over a period of time to determine the final Net Overseas Migration figures...
The ABS has developed improved methods for the estimation of NOM. The key changes are: ! the introduction of a '12/16 month rule' for determining whether a person is a usual resident of Australia, replacing the need for a person to be continuously resident for a period of 12 out of 12 months. ! the shift from a movements-based approach to a traveller-based approach, through matched administrative data, for estimating NOM.
Quote:
The improved methods are based on a non-continuous approach to measuring duration of usual residence, as opposed to the previous continuous method. Persons are included in the resident population if they are in Australia for a total of 12 months or more over a 16 month period (referred to as the 12/16 month rule). Therefore the accurate measurement of duration of stay has become integral to the improved method. In the improved methods, for final estimates, the total duration of stay/absence for each traveller is determined by adding durations of stay/absence as shown by movement histories over the 16 month period following an overseas movement. The 12/16 month rule can only be fully applied when data on overseas movements are available for the 16 months following a reference quarter. Therefore, the 12/16 month rule is only applied in compiling final NOM estimates, with these estimates based around the construction of detailed movement histories for each overseas traveller. Preliminary estimates of NOM are required five months after the reference quarter for the production of quarterly estimates of the population of Australia, states and territories. Therefore, complete traveller histories for the 16 months following a reference quarter cannot be produced in this time frame. Adjustment factors derived from final NOM estimates of the same quarter two years earlier are used to calculate preliminary NOM.
Quote:
4 Conceptually, net overseas migration (NOM) is the difference between permanent and long-term arrivals, and permanent and long-term departures. Estimates of NOM are derived from information provided on incoming and outgoing passenger cards, as well as other data supplied by the Department of Immigration and Citizenship (DIAC). Data on the intended duration of stay of overseas visitors arriving in Australia and the intended duration of absence of Australian residents travelling overseas are used to determine the numbers of permanent and long-term arrivals, and permanent and long-term departures. Passenger card data are also used to calculate migration adjustments for category of travel, and determine the state and territory distribution of NOM. The processes of adjusting movement data on travellers' stated intentions to reflect their actual behaviour are complex and are outlined in Chapter One.
You said, Explaining a limitation to a particular data set does not make that data set 'shite'. In fact, it actually improves the usability of the data.
And therefore, is not gospel, and the analysis, conclusions or predictions, may or may not be correct. lol
yes I know the data bs. Some raw data is accurate and easy to qualify. People and their movements are not.
So really I should not be shot for being off by 0.2% in a prediction, should I?
I'm sure there are a great many things you shouldn't be shot for.
yes, and some bullets I have dodged in my time.
no dis to the actual soldiers, full respect guys and gals.....LYW
making a population prediction is not a great thing and as such i will not accept any more bs towards me the man, regarding what my predictions may be, correct or not.
Thinking, learning, creating, sharing and debating, then back to thinking...... a loop for success and significance.
Do not put down the creators or encourage other to, as they are essential, even if their ideas are not.
The ability to create, without personal criticism, is required in our nation now and we must, as a nation embrace creators and innovators, as I am sure you agree, considering your learning, thinking, creating and sharing is excellent.
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