Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
Australian Population Growth and Migration
Topic Started: 10 Jan 2011, 11:16 AM (21,812 Views)
Deleted User
Deleted User

I was not sure about the definition of short term. Still not really, lol.
I just knew were not including them in our charts and for good reason.
I also believe that they (STV who stay over 12 months) should not be included in the abs population growth percentage. If you do, fine, I do not.

I would like to know more about how the abs reclassify people from STV to LTV domestically as the abs reported that far more left than came in November, 2010
It is heading south and the reason we should, I, will do that chart when I can find a better excel bot. Any offers?
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

pauk
15 Jan 2011, 11:08 AM
I also believe that they (STV who stay over 12 months) should not be included in the abs population growth percentage. If you do, fine, I do not.
If someone is here for 12 months or more then they are likely to be out of short term accommodation (hotels etc) and into long term accommodation (renting or buying houses). Long term visa holders are permitted to buy property. Short term are not. So for the purposes of this discussion the long term figures will certainly be influencing the housing market.

Whether or not you agree with the official definition is irrelevant to the discussion. The official definition is quite clear. More than 12 months is long term.
Edited by Shadow, 15 Jan 2011, 11:15 AM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Deleted User
Deleted User

Yes I call them shite, they say....

Quote:
 Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics.

We agree on how the abs treat the numbers and define the terms. Done.
What do you make of their updated page?
Why do it and why have "What if...." as part of their official release?
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

pauk
15 Jan 2011, 11:23 AM
Yes I call them shite, they say....

Quote:
 Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics.

We agree on how the abs treat the numbers and define the terms. Done.
What do you make of their updated page?
Why do it and why have "What if...." as part of their official release?
Explaining a limitation to a particular data set does not make that data set 'shite'. In fact, it actually improves the usability of the data.

In this document they explain how they improve, cross-check and verify that preliminary raw data over a period of time to determine the final Net Overseas Migration figures...

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3107.0.55.0052007?OpenDocument

Quote:
 
The ABS has developed improved methods for the estimation of NOM. The key changes are:
! the introduction of a '12/16 month rule' for determining whether a person is a usual
resident of Australia, replacing the need for a person to be continuously resident for
a period of 12 out of 12 months.
! the shift from a movements-based approach to a traveller-based approach, through
matched administrative data, for estimating NOM.


Quote:
 
The improved methods are based on a non-continuous approach to measuring duration
of usual residence, as opposed to the previous continuous method. Persons are included
in the resident population if they are in Australia for a total of 12 months or more over a
16 month period (referred to as the 12/16 month rule). Therefore the accurate
measurement of duration of stay has become integral to the improved method.
In the improved methods, for final estimates, the total duration of stay/absence for each
traveller is determined by adding durations of stay/absence as shown by movement
histories over the 16 month period following an overseas movement. The 12/16 month
rule can only be fully applied when data on overseas movements are available for the 16
months following a reference quarter. Therefore, the 12/16 month rule is only applied in
compiling final NOM estimates, with these estimates based around the construction of
detailed movement histories for each overseas traveller.
Preliminary estimates of NOM are required five months after the reference quarter for
the production of quarterly estimates of the population of Australia, states and
territories. Therefore, complete traveller histories for the 16 months following a
reference quarter cannot be produced in this time frame. Adjustment factors derived
from final NOM estimates of the same quarter two years earlier are used to calculate
preliminary NOM.


Quote:
 
4 Conceptually, net overseas migration (NOM) is the difference between permanent
and long-term arrivals, and permanent and long-term departures. Estimates of NOM are
derived from information provided on incoming and outgoing passenger cards, as well as
other data supplied by the Department of Immigration and Citizenship (DIAC). Data on
the intended duration of stay of overseas visitors arriving in Australia and the intended
duration of absence of Australian residents travelling overseas are used to determine the
numbers of permanent and long-term arrivals, and permanent and long-term departures.
Passenger card data are also used to calculate migration adjustments for category of
travel, and determine the state and territory distribution of NOM. The processes of
adjusting movement data on travellers' stated intentions to reflect their actual behaviour
are complex and are outlined in Chapter One.
Edited by Shadow, 15 Jan 2011, 12:02 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Deleted User
Deleted User

Shadow. LYW

You said, Explaining a limitation to a particular data set does not make that data set 'shite'. In fact, it actually improves the usability of the data.

And therefore, is not gospel, and the analysis, conclusions or predictions, may or may not be correct. lol

yes I know the data bs. Some raw data is accurate and easy to qualify. People and their movements are not.

So really I should not be shot for being off by 0.2% in a prediction, should I?
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

pauk
15 Jan 2011, 12:17 PM
So really I should not be shot for being off by 0.2% in a prediction, should I?
I'm sure there are a great many things you shouldn't be shot for. :)
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Deleted User
Deleted User

the abs changed the link yesterday to the nov 2010 stats page so my link on my blog went to a 404 and a twitter invite.lol

fixed it now..
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Deleted User
Deleted User

Shadow
15 Jan 2011, 12:23 PM
I'm sure there are a great many things you shouldn't be shot for. :)
yes, and some bullets I have dodged in my time.

no dis to the actual soldiers, full respect guys and gals.....LYW

making a population prediction is not a great thing and as such i will not accept any more bs towards me the man, regarding what my predictions may be, correct or not.

Thinking, learning, creating, sharing and debating, then back to thinking...... a loop for success and significance.

Do not put down the creators or encourage other to, as they are essential, even if their ideas are not.

The ability to create, without personal criticism, is required in our nation now and we must, as a nation embrace creators and innovators, as I am sure you agree, considering your learning, thinking, creating and sharing is excellent.

Paul
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Shadow
Member Avatar
Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

Anyway Pauk, here is another chart for you...

Posted Image
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Deleted User
Deleted User

Shadow
15 Jan 2011, 03:17 PM
Anyway Pauk, here is another chart for you...

Posted Image
LYW. Why not take it through to November? Too steep?
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Free Forums with no limits on posts or members.
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy