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Australian Population Growth and Migration
Topic Started: 10 Jan 2011, 11:16 AM (21,816 Views)
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Shadow, I have not stated anything from you. You are just doing the numbers and I think we debated the calculation a bit.

For the record, I and only I assert that our current population as at November, 2010 was 1.1%, based on births over deaths plus net migration of both LTV and STV.

If the trends continue from Shadows chart and we repeat the last six months, then the June 2011 number will be less at perhaps less than 1%.

This will depend if the flood of Aussie born residents moving permanently away, slows or grows. This trend line is up and very serious as the largest group to go are the 25 to 35 year olds.

This should worry the bulls greatly but you seem to want to focus on other issues. Weird.

Either way, the trend is down and so all bulls must be doing a little crap by now, as population growth formed a major part of their argument, especially as they feel homes are just as affordable now as they were 30 odd years ago.

Immigration, without looking at emigration was the foundation for the bulls. They argued that massive rising immigration would drive demand and create a housing shortage. The reality is a little different on the home planet.
The bulls argued that the Short Term Visitors (STV) should not be included as they did not really effect supply or demand greatly, so Shadow ignored that data from the abs in the creation of his chart. A chart that the more I study the more worried I become, not for housing prices but GDP and likely tax revenues revisions.
So, if you do not want to use the STV, then good, Shadow nor I did.

Now, without any interpretation of the chart or estimates as to the now rate for population growth from me, what do you see happening?
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Frank Castle
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Business As Usual

pauk
14 Jan 2011, 05:45 PM
Correct, I made up that they would be and were at 1.7%, when the latest realeas from the abs was 2.2 in June 2009.


That you did
I am glad you have admitted that you made them up

Quote:
 
Can you find that thread Frank?

Can you?
I am not that interested

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Official figures last one whole year, how old school is that.


If thats how the system works................

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No you hacked.


WTF did I hack?
Explanation and apology please

Quote:
 
All you need do is admit that I was making a number up


I already have admitted that you made a number up
and so did you
Ignore posts by The Whole Truth · View Post · End Ignoring
The forum fuckwit goes RRRAAARRRGGHHhhh - But not a fuck was given..................by anyone.
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Deleted User
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Shadow
14 Jan 2011, 06:00 PM

I have not claimed that the current or future population growth rate is 1.1%. The last official figure was 1.7%. The next official figure will be a bit lower (maybe 1.6%) but certainly not as low as the figure of 1.1% that you stated. Please provide your calculations showing how you reached a figure of 1.1%.

Remember that 43% of the total population growth rate is attributed to natural growth, not immigration, and the natural growth rate was still rising.

Posted Image
Do you now want me to discuss a chart that includes STV? Really?
Really simply, without going into the calculations I used let us just do some simple maths

From 2.2% in 2009 to 1.7% in 2010 is .5% of a percent drop in one year and the trend line for immigration is down and emigration up, so we could expect at least another .5 if not greater. I say .6, so 1.1% it is.

Can you accept that or are you still arguing, even with your own trend lines that the rate of decrease has flattened or slowed down? Is not the perm out going up?

Come on, I really need you help, rather than playing a bull bear game.
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

pauk
14 Jan 2011, 06:31 PM
Do you now want me to discuss a chart that includes STV? Really?
Really simply, without going into the calculations I used let us just do some simple maths

From 2.2% in 2009 to 1.7% in 2010 is .5% of a percent drop in one year and the trend line for immigration is down and emigration up, so we could expect at least another .5 if not greater. I say .6, so 1.1% it is.

Can you accept that or are you still arguing, even with your own trend lines that the rate of decrease has flattened or slowed down? Is not the perm out going up?

Come on, I really need you help, rather than playing a bull bear game.
I don't play games Pauk.

The chart above does not include short term visitors (assume that's what you mean by STV). Only permanent and long term visitors are included in the official population growth rate.

In March 2009 the government announced a 14 per cent cut to the permanent skilled migration program (133 500 to 115 000) and then another cut to 108,000 was subsequently announced. They also removed building, manufacturing, and other trades from the Critical Skills List (hairdressers, chefs, bricklayers, plumbers, welders, carpenters and metalworkers etc).

In addition, they reformed the system whereby an overseas student with a short-term vocational qualification gained in Australia could receive a permanent visa ahead of other professions. Removing the link between studying in Australia and a permanent visa caused applications for student visas to decrease by 17 per cent.

Furthermore, reform of the temporary long term skilled 457 visa program resulted in a 20% decrease in primary subclass 457 visa applications.

As far as I know there have been no further announcements since then, so there is no reason to expect another sharp fall in the population growth rate.
Edited by Shadow, 14 Jan 2011, 07:07 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Deleted User
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Pauk Collins
* Joined: 20-June 10
Posted 18 September 2010 - 06:54 PM
Frank, we peaked immigration at 2.1% in 2008. Been going down quickly since then. Look at the abs.
Many global sources including gapminder.org have us going forward at 1.01% population growth.
CIA.gov the world factbook, OECD, the world bank and the BIS.

Posted 19 September 2010 - 09:37 AM
Blue Frank. View Post
Frank Castle, on 19 September 2010 - 09:30 AM, said:
This thread here?
http://www.creditcru...ndpost&p=117051
Yes pauk, even your own links in that thread show the population of Australia is increasing, not decreasing, as you falsely claim
Like I said, steaming pile of crap

I never said it was decreasing? Immigration is decreasing.


Pauk Collins
Posted 29 September 2010 - 05:32 PM
View Post clogwog ( red) , on 29 September 2010 - 04:59 PM, said:
ABS
So this is the data till 31 march 2010, from 2.2% to 1.8% is a bit of a drop and interesting to see if this will continue. The anecdotal info that 457 visa are less prevalent and OS students are staying away suggest this trend may continue.
Correct and till mid sepetember I still think it may be 1.4, due to students off the cliff. Although the fertility rates went up, good news, so this could offset it back to 1.5%
Not sure. Lots of interesting data in today's abs release. I will digest and report over the next couple of days.

So I predicted 1.5 and it was 1.7......

onto some charts.... a little old but really interesting....

Posted Image

we are now at NOM 54,000 for last year.
Posted Image
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Deleted User
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Shadow, please clarify. In the official abs rates, are STV counted or not. I thought they were if they have =been her for x months?
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

pauk
14 Jan 2011, 07:41 PM
So this is the data till 31 march 2010, from 2.2% to 1.8% is a bit of a drop and interesting to see if this will continue. The anecdotal info that 457 visa are less prevalent and OS students are staying away suggest this trend may continue.

Correct and till mid sepetember I still think it may be 1.4, due to students off the cliff. Although the fertility rates went up, good news, so this could offset it back to 1.5%
So Pauk, when the population growth rate was already 1.8%, you predicted that it would fall to 1.4-1.5% by the next release, but it only fell to 1.7%. Is that correct? You predicted that it would fall three or four times faster than it actually did? I don't think this is a prediction to be particularly proud of...

And no, short term movements are not included in the population growth rate figures. Only 12 month or longer arrivals/departures are counted.
Edited by Shadow, 14 Jan 2011, 08:06 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Deleted User
Deleted User

Did I write the first sentence or is that yours?

Correct I predicted a 0.3% drop and it was in fact a 0.1% drop (1.8 to 1.7)
My prediction was 1.5 and it was 1.7, while other were talking increases...and still are?

So it is now, 1.7% officially and 1.1% is my prediction for November 2010, and yes I will probably be out by 0.2% again, so maybe I should say 1.3% to 1.1%. Now, June 2011, I feel pretty sure it will be around 1.1%

That is only a 0.1% increase in the decrease (2.1 to 1.7 is 0.5% and I am saying the next decrease will be by 0.6%) from last official figures and your chart confirms at least that. Agree?

What is your prediction?
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Shadow
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Evil Mouzealot Specufestor

pauk
14 Jan 2011, 08:16 PM
What is your prediction?
The September quarter 2010 data is scheduled for release on 29th March. I expect the growth rate to be around 1.6%.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Deleted User
Deleted User

Shadow
14 Jan 2011, 08:40 PM
The September quarter 2010 data is scheduled for release on 29th March. I expect the growth rate to be around 1.6%.
Ok, and I say 1.4% And for the quarter aver that down to 1.1%
on the record.
You 1.6% and then?
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