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Australian Population Growth and Migration
Topic Started: 10 Jan 2011, 11:16 AM (21,804 Views)
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http://www.immi.gov.au/media/publications/pdf/emigration-2009-10.pdf

Can you please read the above linked report and comment.

Permanent arrivals over permanent departures, 54,000 people last year.
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/05emigration_1.htm

It is time we got the numbers and trends correct.

Paul
As immigration relates to ageing....
Posted Image
and the agequake by The Economist
http://www.economist.com/node/13888045
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davel
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pauk
10 Jan 2011, 11:16 AM
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/publications/pdf/emigration-2009-10.pdf

Can you please read the above linked report and comment.

Permanent arrivals over permanent departures, 54,000 people last year.
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/05emigration_1.htm

It is time we got the numbers and trends correct.

Paul
In my view, the AUD has a BIG effect here. Many Aussies and non-Aussies currently living here must look at the AUD and think its a great chance to set up somewhere else, if thats in their thinking. Particularly the case if they have equity also.

Likewise many potential immigrants must look at the AUD and the property market and think twice about coming here as the cost of setting up is becoming ever higher. Exception is people involved in the resources boom who obviously have a great opportunity regardless.

It reminds me a bit of the issue with Poles in the UK in the early 2000s. People thought they would all just come and stay in ever-increasing numbers, but many didnt - once the recession happened loads just went home with a nice wedge to set up on.

In my view immigration will be highly-sensitive to these issues and will be a factor which restores some balance (both to currency and property market).
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Maveri
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I have friends who are Indian who came here about 5 years ago and purchased property in Sydney.

They are selling up and returning to India due to mortgage costs and general living expenses.

In their eye's the mortgage payments are simply too high to allow them to live as they did in India, so they are returning.

In India they could afford to have maids etc, not so here. Food here they thought was expensive as were general goods.

They believe that returning to India will be better overall and that in the years ahead India will have more opportunities than Australia will.

Overall they have been disillusioned with the Australian glossy brouchers depicting laid back life style and plentiful work etc.

p.s I have not read the report yet
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Shadow
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Pauk, I'm not sure this is such a big deal. We know the government tightened up migration rules recently, partly due to expectations of much higher unemployment levels caused by the GFC, and partly because of the popular backlash against Kevin Rudd's 'Big Australia' policy. Nevertheless, net permanent migration last year was still higher than during the 2001-2004 period. (You may remember that house prices were booming during that period).

Posted Image

Of course net permanent migration does impact demand for houses, but so too does long lerm migration. Long term residents are allowed to buy property here, and even if they don't buy they still have to rent, putting demand on the rental market - and somebody needs to buy those rental properties. Long term migration, while it has also fallen recently as expected, is still pretty high and much higher than at any time in the past prior to 2007.

Posted Image

The question is what will happen from here. Will net migration fall or rise over the next few years. If the economy is reasonably strong, and the mining boom unfolds as most economists expect, then we will probably see net migration figures ramping up again. Business and industry will be complaining about skills shortages and asking for more workers. Remember that the recent fall in net migration was a direct result of negative financial conditions. If the economy improves, so too will migration numbers.

Quote:
 
Definitions

Permanent departures - Residents departing permanently.
Settlers/permanent arrivals - Persons arriving in Australia who hold migrant visas, regardless of stated intended period of stay, New Zealand citizens who indicate an intention to settle, and those who are otherwise eligible to settle (for example, overseas-born children of Australian citizens).
Long term movement - Temporary visa holders arriving and residents departing temporarily with the intention to stay in Australia or abroad for twelve months or more, and the departure of temporary visa holders and the return of residents who had stayed in Australia or abroad for twelve months or more.
Edited by Shadow, 10 Jan 2011, 12:13 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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Maveri
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So...

Table 15 and Table 16 shows where they were born and presumably, where they are going?

50% of the group departing are Australian born? That seems very high doesn't it?

And table 16 shows NZ and the UK as taking 17% each.

sooo - does this indicate that they are predominately taking off to NZ and the UK? am I misunderstanding the tables here?
Edited by Maveri, 10 Jan 2011, 12:14 PM.
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jrsnr
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pauk
10 Jan 2011, 11:16 AM
It is time we got the numbers and trends correct.

Paul
Hi Paul,

I note that your investigations of the aging demographic is very Australia-centric, and understandably so.

Just wondering whether you have looked at, and analyzed, with respect to other countries throughout the world.

According to Wikipedia article on the Post WWII Baby Boom four countries experienced a baby boom, i.e. US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

Also, Japan is well advanced into their aging demographic. China is also coming into an aging demographic. Russia is coming to a severe aging demographic as well.

All of these countries have larger populations than Australia, New Zealand excluded.

I know that it is bandied about that one solution to the aging demographic is to increase immigration.

I am wondering whether the Australian projections for immigration account for other countries which might consider a similar tactic and hence be a market for immigration also?
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shadow
you said black
net permanent migration last year was still higher than during the 2001-2004 period.
And on a steep downward trend....
Long term migration, while it has also fallen recently as expected, is still pretty high and much higher than at any time in the past prior to 2007.
And on a steep downward trend....

From 2000 to 2010
Non permanent visas...
Residents leaving on long term visa doubled while long term visitor arrivals did about 2.7 times.
Resident departures has remained static while long term visitor departures has trebled.

Permanent visas...
Residents and non residents leaving permanently doubled while permanent visitor arrivals increased about 1.5 times.
Resident departures has remained static while permanent departures has trebled.
In terms on net permanents, well it has reduced since 2000.
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Shadow
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pauk
10 Jan 2011, 01:25 PM
And on a steep downward trend....

From 2000 to 2010
Non permanent visas...
Residents leaving on long term visa doubled while long term visitor arrivals did about 2.7 times.
Resident departures has remained static while long term visitor departures has trebled.

Permanent visas...
Residents and non residents leaving permanently doubled while permanent visitor arrivals did about 1.5 times.
Resident departures has remained static while long term visitor departures has trebled.
In terms on net permanents, well it has reduced since 2000.
One data point doesn't make a trend. To determine whether there is downward 'trend' in annual migration, we would need to see more than one year of annual migration falling. This is as bad as the bears who claim house prices are now 'crashing' after one or two months of negative growth. I think you need a few data points before you can claim the trend has changed.

Remember that the recent fall in net migration was a direct result of negative financial conditions. If the economy improves, so too will migration numbers. If the economy is reasonably strong, and the mining boom unfolds as most economists expect, then we will probably see net migration figures ramping up again. Business and industry will be complaining about skills shortages and asking for more workers.
Edited by Shadow, 10 Jan 2011, 01:34 PM.
1. Epic Fail! Steve Keen's Bad Calls and Predictions.
2. Residential property loans regulated by NCCP Act. Banks can't margin call unless borrower defaults.
3. Housing is second highest taxed sector of Australian Economy. Renters subsidised by highly taxed homeowners.
4. Ongoing improvement in housing affordability. Australian household formation faster than population growth since 1960s.
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jrsnr
10 Jan 2011, 01:02 PM
Hi Paul,
Just wondering whether you have looked at, and analyzed, with respect to other countries throughout the world.
I know that it is bandied about that one solution to the aging demographic is to increase immigration.
I am wondering whether the Australian projections for immigration account for other countries which might consider a similar tactic and hence be a market for immigration also?
A lot of countries have had baby booms similar to the ones you mentioned.
Ageing is about longevity and baby booms within countries and many counties face this ageing challenge. China for example.
http://www.un.org/ageing/
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldageing19502050/
and in particular Australia
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldageing19502050/pdf/037austr.pdf

Posted Image

and the agequake by The Economist
http://www.economist.com/node/13888045

To answer another of your questions, immigration or bringing in different ages people (young) to flatten out the age distributions, has saved us so for, so yes it has been critical.

Now not sure abot immigration. We may be able to craft another solution to the ageing population, rather than just increasing immigration. Our real problem is to stop our Aussie 25 to 35, as the largest group to piss off, to stay. Any suggestions?

You are also correct, the ageing populations around the globe are completing for the young. We have less kids in our society, now as a percentage, than we did in 1990 and far less than 1975 and getting worse if they leaving permanently. shite!
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Shadow
10 Jan 2011, 01:32 PM
One data point doesn't make a trend. To determine whether there is downward 'trend' in annual migration, we would need to see more than one year of annual migration falling. This is as bad as the bears who claim house prices are now 'crashing' after one or two months of negative growth. I think you need a few data points before you can claim the trend has changed.

Remember that the recent fall in net migration was a direct result of negative financial conditions. If the economy improves, so too will migration numbers. If the economy is reasonably strong, and the mining boom unfolds as most economists expect, then we will probably see net migration figures ramping up again. Business and industry will be complaining about skills shortages and asking for more workers.
Are any of these statements below false?

From 2000 to 2010
Non permanent visas...
Residents leaving on long term visa doubled while long term visitor arrivals did about 2.7 times.
Resident departures has remained static while long term visitor departures has trebled.

Permanent visas...
Residents and non residents leaving permanently doubled while permanent visitor arrivals did about 1.5 times.
Resident departures has remained static while long term visitor departures has trebled.
In terms on net permanents, well it has reduced since 2000.

The trend does look like a few years, look harder....

I agree, IF our economy recovers, THEN immigrants MAY consider coming in increased numbers IF our govt lets them and only IF is is more affordable to do so. You missing the point, not about immigrants, its about emigrants as aussies kids!
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